Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[PDH]

When Russians lose their facilities it is mostly out of high windows where they go to look for them...

[grumbler]

Even with digging in, I'm not sure it's in Russia's interests to pass the initiative in this war to Ukraine.  Better-motivated troops with the ability to choose the time and place have been routing superior numbers since the Battle of Issus.

[The Minsky Moment]

When Russians lose their facilities it is mostly out of high windows where they go to look for them...

That's a cliche, not always true.  Some of them choose to joust on foot without a weapon against a fast moving car.  Some of them dive head first at extremely high speeds into small bullet shaped pieces of metal.  Some choose to add rare poisons to their food as part of elaborate culinary dares.  There's a lot of diversity.

[viper37]

Better-motivated troops with the ability to choose the time and place have been routing superior numbers since the Battle of Issus.

Discipline beats numbers.  I've heard that before...

I agree that ideally, they'd be on the offensive in a time and place of their choosing.

Yeah, well, no matter what, the Russians are pretty stuck.  I'm not sure they have the capabilities to mount a large scale offensive anymore.  Might be that digging in is currently their best option, regroup and reorganize supply while they hold a stronger position.  Maybe the commanders have been promised new equipment to replace the losses.  New troops doesn't seem to be a given, without conscription, but maybe they're hoping to encircle one city at a time.  Worked in Mariupol, seems to work right now in some other cities.

[jimmy olsen]

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but at the beginning of the war, didn't the Russians had 2,800 tanks in their active forces. So, this is 1/4th of the tanks in the entire army?

Russia - 4035, of which: destroyed: 2331, damaged: 75, abandoned: 294, captured: 1334

Tanks (700, of which destroyed: 380, damaged: 22, abandoned: 53, captured: 242

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

[Threviel]

There are pictures of Russian T-62s going to the front. A 1960s upgrade of a WWII T-55.

Sure, modernised and improved, but the W40K feeling of the Russian army increases a lot.

[Maladict]

They are going to make great savings on storage and maintenance.

[Legbiter]

There are pictures of Russian T-62s going to the front. A 1960s upgrade of a WWII T-55.

Sure, modernised and improved, but the W40K feeling of the Russian army increases a lot.

At this rate they'll be using T-34s in August.

[alfred russel]

They are going to make great savings on storage and maintenance.

I suspect they were already making great savings on storage and maintenance, but maybe now even greater savings!

[alfred russel]

Something worth remembering when thinking about the Russian economy.

The value of the ruble on Dec. 31 before the crisis was 74.79 vs. the USD. It is now 58.91. The net result of sanctions and higher oil prices is: a significantly stronger ruble. It is just one metric but at least by that metric they are holding things together.

[DGuller]

Something worth remembering when thinking about the Russian economy.

The value of the ruble on Dec. 31 before the crisis was 74.79 vs. the USD. It is now 58.91. The net result of sanctions and higher oil prices is: a significantly stronger ruble. It is just one metric but at least by that metric they are holding things together.

My understanding is that it's a highly misleading metric.  For one, the Russian government wants you to reach conclusions by watching this metric, so they're going to make sure it looks good if they can help it.  Another reason it's misleading is that Russia is getting a lot of foreign currency they can do nothing with, due to economic blockade.  If your bank account is rapidly swelling, because no one is allowed to sell you anything, even food, are you really doing that well?

[alfred russel]

My understanding is that it's a highly misleading metric.  For one, the Russian government wants you to reach conclusions by watching this metric, so they're going to make sure it looks good if they can help it.  Another reason it's misleading is that Russia is getting a lot of foreign currency they can do nothing with, due to economic blockade.  If your bank account is rapidly swelling, because no one is allowed to sell you anything, even food, are you really doing that well?

Is there an economic blockade? Excluding Canada, US, EU, Japan, Singapore, and Australia/New Zealand, how tight are sanctions on Russia?

China plus India are a healthy chunk of the world's population by themselves.

[The Minsky Moment]

Russia has benefitted from higher energy prices and continued Euro purchases of gas but the consensus forecasts both internally and externally for 2022 are pretty consistent: GDP growth of -8 to -12 percent; inflation of 15-22%.

The ruble has been bolstered by capital controls, requiring 80% of all private forex earnings to be converted to rubles.  Put simply, if you force people to sell almost all their dollars for rubles, the ruble will go up.  But this is not really helpful to the Russian economy - on the contrary, the high valuation on the ruble is a drag on the real economy and Russia recently relaxed the capital controls to try to bring it down.

[Malthus]

When Russians lose their facilities it is mostly out of high windows where they go to look for them...

That's a cliche, not always true.  Some of them choose to joust on foot without a weapon against a fast moving car.  Some of them dive head first at extremely high speeds into small bullet shaped pieces of metal.  Some choose to add rare poisons to their food as part of elaborate culinary dares.  There's a lot of diversity.

All time favourite: the former oil executive who allegedly chose a local shaman's toad juice as a hangover cure.

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/toad-poison-hangover-treatment-reportedly-kills-russian-oil-executive/#app

[celedhring]

There are pictures of Russian T-62s going to the front. A 1960s upgrade of a WWII T-55.

Sure, modernised and improved, but the W40K feeling of the Russian army increases a lot.

Heh, I just saw the pictures. 

I suppose they will go to the DPR/LPR chaps, which they always give crap to. It would be a nightmare to integrate them in their existing units - T-62s have 4-men crews (no autoloader), and their gun is of a different caliber.