Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

Putin is certainly far away from a propaganda victory, however the actual fighting turns out.

[KRonn]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14gVDF2b1vA

Ukrainian chats up Russian soldiers who have run out of gas.

It seems like a common theme that Russian soldiers don't know anything about the situation they've driven into.  Obviously they could be playing dumb, but I believe it's genuine.  I wonder if that's a tactic to avoid tactical intelligence leaks that's backfiring.

Yeah, I've been seeing similar ideas being tossed about and I would think that the average Russian soldier, mostly concripts I think, is not nearly as committed as  the Ukrainian soldiers or even civilians.

[KRonn]

Putin is certainly far away from a propaganda victory, however the actual fighting turns out.

[Habbaku]

I'll be more confident that Putin has lost this round in dramatic fashion if Ukraine is still fighting in two weeks.

[Jacob]

I'll be more confident that Putin has lost this round in dramatic fashion if Ukraine is still fighting in two weeks.

Putin hasn't lost, not by a long shot. What he has is incurred a higher cost than he expected and than most of us dared hope.

Ukrainian resistance has been significantly stiffer than expected, and Russian forces less effective than expected. Shock and awe this ain't.

The Western response is shaping up to be a bit firmer than expected as well I reckon, the US intelligence response was better than we would've thought, and I think the West is going to oppose Russia in a broader, deeper, and more sustained and united way than it looked at first.

Putin may very well win the battle for Ukraine - though it's looking tougher than most of us would've guessed. He may not. In either case, in the medium and long terms I think he's bit off more than he's going to be able to chew comfortably.

[Jacob]

The sanctions against Russia's central bank could potentially lead to hyper inflation in Russia, I'm reading, as it will put at least half their foreign currency reserves beyond reach. Apparently only the central banks of Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela have ever been sanctioned like that.

[Jacob]

David Frum has an interesting article on the impact of Central Bank sanctions against Russia in the Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-russian-sanctions-work/622940/

Remember the saying "If you owe the bank $10,000, you have a problem—but if you owe the bank $10 billion, the bank has a problem?" We, the people of the Western world collectively owe the Russian state hundreds of billions of dollars. That's not our problem. That's Russia's problem, an enormous one. Because one thing any debtor can do is ... not pay when asked.

...

Depositors would race to cash out their dollar and euro holdings from Russian banks, the Russian banks would bang on the doors of the Russian central bank, the Russian central bank would freeze its depositors' foreign-currency accounts. The ruble would cease to be a convertible currency. It would revert to being the pseudo-currency of Soviet times: something used for record-keeping purposes inside Russia, but without the ability to buy goods or services on international markets. The Russian economy would close upon itself, collapsing into as much self-sufficiency as possible for a country that produces only basic commodities.

Russia imports almost everything its citizens eat, wear, and use. And in the modern digitized world, that money cannot be used without the agreement of somebody's central bank. You could call it Berstam's law: "Do not fight with countries whose currencies you use as a reserve currency to maintain your own."

[viper37]

The best way to put a dent in it is to sanction and isolate Swiss banks. But I don't know how feasible that is.

Swiss banks aren't as secret as they were.  Russian criminals and oligarchs tend to do business with Cyprus' banks.  Not exclusively, but a lot of money transits through there.

[viper37]

I've been seeing a lot of footage, as we all have, of Ukrainian civilians trying to flee, or trying to fight, even the President and other officials taking up arms and all of it being seen by the world. I would think these scenes broadcast to the world have generated a lot of empathy for Ukraine. Putin becomes more and more of a pariah and taking Russia's reputation along with him. So it almost seems that whether Russia overwhelms Ukraine or not Putin loses.

Putin does not care about isolation.  It only reinforces russian paranoia that everyone is against them and plays to his propaganda.
There's not enough opposing left in Russia to be meaningful in anyway.  Ukraine becomes Russia again.  The resistance is crushed like Tchetchnia and Georgia.  He gets the resources.  He wins.

[Grinning_Colossus]

The best way to put a dent in it is to sanction and isolate Swiss banks. But I don't know how feasible that is.

Swiss banks aren't as secret as they were.  Russian criminals and oligarchs tend to do business with Cyprus' banks.  Not exclusively, but a lot of money transits through there.

Interesting. Not formally neutral and an EU member. Much easier to push around.

[Josquius]

Interesting Twitter thread by an Estonian former chief of defence:

https://twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497537193346220038

Intel from a Ukrainian officer about a meeting in Putin's lair in Urals. Oligarchs convened there so no one would flee. Putin is furious, he thought that the whole war would be easy and everything would be done in 1-4 days.

Russians didn't have a tactical plan. The war costs about $20 bln/day. There are rockets for 3-4 days at most, they use them sparingly. They lack weapons, the Tula and 2 Rotenberg plants can't physically fulfil the orders for weapons. Rifles and ammo are the most they can do.

The next Russian weapons can be produced in 3-4 months – if even that. They have no raw materials. What was previously supplied mainly from Slovenia, Finland and Germany is now cut off.

If Ukraine manages to hold the Russians off for 10 days, then the Russians will have to enter negotiations. Because they have no money, weapons, or resources. Nevertheless, they are indifferent about the sanctions.

Alpha Spec Ops have been near Kyiv since the 18th February. The goal was to take Kyiv and instal a puppet regime. They are preparing provocations against innocent civilians – women and children – to sow panic. This is their trump card.

Russia's whole plan relies on panic – that the civilians and armed forces surrender and Zelensky flees. They expect Kharkiv to surrender first so the other cities would follow suit to avoid bloodshed. The Russians are in shock of the fierce resistance they have encountered.

The Ukrainians must avoid panic! The missile strikes are for intimidation, the Russians fire them at random to "accidentally" hit residential buildings to make the attack look larger than it really is. Ukraine must stay strong and we must provide assistance!

Even if only a fraction of that turns out to be true, it paints a not very rosy picture for Russia in the mid-term.

The number of missile attacks does seem underwhelming.
The working theory I had been going with is Russia is still being careful and pretending to be nice :eventually they would switch tack and level the cities.
That its the best they can manage.... Interesting idea.

[Zanza]

German parliament met today with the Ukrainian ambassador in attendance. Main government announcements were 100 billion Euro additional spending on military equipment and building two LNG ports in Northern Germany.

[Sheilbh]

Putin hasn't lost, not by a long shot. What he has is incurred a higher cost than he expected and than most of us dared hope.

Ukrainian resistance has been significantly stiffer than expected, and Russian forces less effective than expected. Shock and awe this ain't.

Yes and it is absolutely clear even if we wins that it would be a conquest not a liberation, that the government of Ukraine enjoyed popular legitimacy and weren't a "puppet regime" of neo-Nazis and that Ukraine is not an artificial invention at all, but a nation. All of those contradict Putin's message and justifications for this war.

The Western response is shaping up to be a bit firmer than expected as well I reckon, the US intelligence response was better than we would've thought, and I think the West is going to oppose Russia in a broader, deeper, and more sustained and united way than it looked at first.

I agree - Scholz has just announced that Germany will spend more than 2% of GDP on defence and an immediate fund t increase funding and reduce dependency. It feels liked there's been a massacre of sacred cows of German foreign policy (especially from the SPD) in the last few days, which I think is right given the risk to EU and NATO allies east of Germany.

Meanwhile now more than 27 European and North American countries are supplying arms. So far it seems like the ones Ukrainians are getting most value out of have been the NLAWs and the Turkish drones - I think just this morning the Ukrainian MoD announced that they'd received a significant amount of anti-air weapons. There is more support and unity than I think Putin expected and than there would have been if that day 1 decapitation strategy worked. I think if things had gone quickly and Ukraine was partitioned, I suspect there would have been a strong pressure to normalisation. I don't think that's going to happen this time.

And the sanctions - especially on the centrral bank - have, I think, been more than Putin expected. There are early signs of a bank run and very little indication that China wants to help out for risk of ICBC etc being hit by secondary sanctions. I do wonder if the other surprise for Putin has been the lack of Chinese support.

Separately the Ukrainian government have rejected talks in Gomel and said they're refusing to hold any talks in Belarus, which seems fair to me. Lukashenko has now confirmed that rockets are being fired from Belarus and is threatening to join the war - interestingly Macron made a direct call to Lukashenko yesterday and Zelensky's done some form of message to Belarussians as he did to Russians.

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJJ8zmcBH2A

Shelf already mentioned the sunflowers in your pocket confrontation, but I can't remember if he had video.

[The Larch]

Yesterday Kadyrov adressed Chechen security forces expected to be deployed in Ukraine. Apparently the boots he's wearing are not military issue, but Prada ones, with a retail price upwards of 1,000 €.



Devil wears Prada indeed.