Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

I think the Telegraph (non-ironically genuinely unsure if it's a bit at this point) had an article suggesting seizing yachts and turning them into royal yachts

By the guy who I think has written about 200 royal yacht themed articles.

[Admiral Yi]

I was sympathetic to ostpolitik during the Cold War.  It made sense in terms of guilt about the war, playing good cop/bad cop, possibility of liberalizing the USSR through commercial contacts, aversion to provoking a war that would be fought in their country, etc.  Not so much any more.

[crazy canuck]

According to the Russian version of events, the Russians misunderstood what the defenders at Snake Island said - they heard "Russian warship, go sink yourself."

[Habbaku]

According to the Russian version of events, the Russians misunderstood what the defenders at Snake Island said - they heard "Russian warship, go sink yourself."

Word has it that the German Coast Guard responded swiftly:

[crazy canuck]

According to the Russian version of events, the Russians misunderstood what the defenders at Snake Island said - they heard "Russian warship, go sink yourself."

Word has it that the German Coast Guard responded swiftly:

 

[Jacob]

Jesus Christ... catching up on twitter and randomly seeing a video of dozens of naked bodies scattered lying around in what looks like piles of trash, discarded loot, and rubble.

Not even sure where in Ukraine it's from, but fuck

[Sheilbh]

I was sympathetic to ostpolitik during the Cold War.  It made sense in terms of guilt about the war, playing good cop/bad cop, possibility of liberalizing the USSR through commercial contacts, aversion to provoking a war that would be fought in their country, etc.  Not so much any more.

I don't think it is ostpolitik at the minute - I think the reality is Germany would have a pretty strong economic hit and it would affect people's daily lives going for a full energy boycott now. I'm not sure how many countries would actually be willing to impose a recession on themselves for someone else. Politically I think we are seeing the risk of cost of living in France - again deliberately increasing that would have a bigger impact (probably everywhere - if you think the polls in France are scary, may I introduce you to Italy). It is interesting that all other European countries who rely on Russian gas, such as Italy, have pivoted on energy - and politically if a government can't do this in its first few months it may be more difficult at a later point when inflation has really hit etc. The other point is if the EU blocked energy and then needed to turn it back on later in the year that would be worse than not boycotting now, because it would be admitting and showing Putin you've got no more leverage. I don't think it's a misguided ostpolitik - on energy I think there are real practical and political risks and difficulties.

On weapons and practical support to Ukraine I have far less sympathy for Scholz. I think there's far less of a case not to act.

I think misguided ostpolitik was Schroeder and Merkel's policy (and was also their policy to China as the red flags kept rising). From my reading of stuff about the Cold War it feels like there wasn't that base cynicism and, to nick the French line, a hardcore realism about Putin (or China). So I think for 25 years Germany had this very weird policy of being absolutely realist and pretty robust in advancing its interests with and against its friends, but slightly dewy eyed and naive about Putin's Russia and China. I'm not fully sure why - but I don't think the foreign policy elite had the read on Putin in the way that I think Brandt etc absolutely did of the Soviets - they knew who they were dealing with, I think Schroeder and Merkel thought they did.

[HVC]

Don't know about merkel, but it was dollar signs in Schroeders eyes, not dew.

[Zanza]

I think the reality is Germany would have a pretty strong economic hit and it would affect people's daily lives going for a full energy boycott now. I'm not sure how many countries would actually be willing to impose a recession on themselves for someone else.

It does not need Germany for the other EU countries to stop buying Russian fossil fuel. If everybody else can do it without a recession, they should do it. Some countries already said they would be in recession with a sudden stop of Russian gas though, e.g. Czechia, Slovakia.

Germany already said it will stop buying Russian coal and oil this year and significantly reduce gas. If everybody else apparently is fine with it, they can cut it completely. That would leave Russia with maybe 20% of their previous gas exports and none for oil and coal at the end of this year. Devastating.

I doubt that though. In 2020 (no 2021 data), nine EU countries were similarly or more exposed to Russian gas than Germany, ten with oil, thirteen with coal.

Also, if Germany has a recession because e.g. its chemical industry stops due to lack of natural gas that will hit supply chains across the continent, creating economic drag elsewhere. It's of course easy to point to Germany, but as usual, Germany is not alone and other countries are actually also not willing to take the economic hit...

It is interesting that all other European countries who rely on Russian gas, such as Italy, have pivoted on energy

Eh? Germany has pivoted as well, just not immediately. But the other Central European countries like Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Austria etc. cannot do without Russian gas immediately either. Or Ukraine for that matter...

[Sheilbh]

It does not need Germany for the other EU countries to stop buying Russian fossil fuel. If everybody else can do it without a recession, they should do it. Some countries already said they would be in recession with a sudden stop of Russian gas though, e.g. Czechia, Slovakia.

It's private actors buying gas. So surely the only way to stop them from doing it would be through sanctions - which is a European competence? I'm not sure how other countries could lawfully stop private actors from purchasing Russian gas.

Other countries have indicated they're willing to impose sanctions on Russian energy - from the last I read the countries opposing it were Germany, Austria and Hungary.

[Zanza]

It does not need Germany for the other EU countries to stop buying Russian fossil fuel. If everybody else can do it without a recession, they should do it. Some countries already said they would be in recession with a sudden stop of Russian gas though, e.g. Czechia, Slovakia.

It's private actors buying gas. So surely the only way to stop them from doing it would be through sanctions - which is a European competence? I'm not sure how other countries could lawfully stop private actors from purchasing Russian gas.

Other countries have indicated they're willing to impose sanctions on Russian energy - from the last I read the countries opposing it were Germany, Austria and Hungary.

EU law is your area of expertise not mine, but as far as I understand it, sanctions under CFSP are binding on the members, but that does not mean members can't impose sanctions on top of that. Arms exports as an example are certainly not a competence of the EU. Poland banned Russian coal imports before the EU adopted that measure. If they are allowed to do that for coal, I imagine they are allowed to do it for gas or oil as well. List of travel bans on persons can be national. So there seems to be room besides EU sanctions for national action.
 

[Sheilbh]

Poland banned coal imports - but the government noted that there are legal doubts and they could be sued by the Commission for it. I think their actual briefing was there are "justifiable legal doubts" about it - i.e. it's against European law but the Polish government thinks it's better to break that and risk sanction by the Commission (which I'd suggest is unlikely - but someone else could sue them for it and they've probably be banged to rights) than keep importing Russian coal and their assessment was the EU wouldn't move quickly enough on this.

I think the distinction is that member states can impose "sanctions" of various sorts that address member state national foreign policy goals (for example national terrorism lists etc) but not EU foreign policy goals covered by the CFSP. My understanding is that includes EU security and "preserving peace, preventing conflicts and strengthening international security" - which I think are the legal grounds for the sanctions against Russia.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I don't think "but Czechia" is a good response from Germany or Germans. If Germany wants to have the accountability of a small irrelevant state, there are a lot of historical little kingdoms you could fracture into, but as the economic superpower of Europe it's crazy to not recognize that there is a leadership role that has to be filled in European relations. Particularly within the institutions of the EU, which Germany has been an almost invariable champion of when compared to other European states that have had bouts of Euroskepticism.

I am also not on the boat of instant turning off of all Russian gas, either. Never have been. We actually traded in petroleum products with the USSR during the Cold War, so a complete shutoff imo isn't entirely logical, and with oil and coal, those do end up part of the broader fungible world market even if some countries sanction it--that doesn't mean they aren't worth turning off, but the commodity will still move. Gas is unique because it can't be easily moved by Russia anywhere else, LNG can't be rapidly scaled up and pipelines don't grow overnight.

The mistake was becoming massively dependent to such a high percentage of national consumption, on Russian pipeline delivered gas, and while I want to keep pushing for that to be dialed back, expecting it to be shut off overnight isn't realistic. Remember it isn't just keeping warm, to be honest you can buy a space heater or layer clothes as mild as most European winters are. The real issue is natural gas is a source input in a huge range of industrial processes and there is no substitute, if a chemical process requires natural gas as a constituent input, you can't replace that with solar panels or nuclear power.

[Sheilbh]

Link to Tass:

Kevin Rothrock
@KevinRothrock
The Moskva has officially sunk. The Defense Ministry says it happened while trying to tow it back to harbor "due to damage suffered by the hull during a storm."

[FunkMonk]

Link to Tass:

Kevin Rothrock
@KevinRothrock
The Moskva has officially sunk. The Defense Ministry says it happened while trying to tow it back to harbor "due to damage suffered by the hull during a storm."