Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Berkut]

Russia sent a diplomatic note formally warning the United States about further military supplies to Ukraine, analysts believe this could be foreshadowing attacks on weapons convoys in NATO territory.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/14/russia-warns-us-stop-arming-ukraine/

I will note--while I've long said that NATO intervening militarily to some degree will create PR wins for Putin, if he strikes a target in a NATO country those concerns are no longer paramount, if he hits any target in a NATO country, we need to hit back with military force, preferentially I would say Russian military targets in Ukraine or naval targets in the Black Sea. There is virtue in not escalating, but once the enemy has hit us or our treaty allies a response is required--and it has to be a military response, not a diplomatic or economic one.

A Russian attack on a NATO country is pretty clear cut.

I think that results in an immediate no-fly zone defined and enforced, and a shooting war with Russia. 

It might be a limited shooting war, but at the least NATO would attack Russian assets used for such an attack, which means attacking Russian assets deployed to protect those assets (SAM sites and such).

[jimmy olsen]

Press X for doubt. Unless Putin decides that he would rather lose to NATO than Ukraine, I have a hard time seeing this happening. He's been taken to the woodshed by Ukraine, involving NATO would be a disaster.

[Berkut]

Press X for doubt. Unless Putin decides that he would rather lose to NATO than Ukraine, I have a hard time seeing this happening. He's been taken to the woodshed by Ukraine, involving NATO would be a disaster.

Once again, you are making an argument the supposes that Putin is going to act rationally by reasonable standards as we know them.

He has already proven that he does not - hence the invasion of Ukraine to begin with.

[FunkMonk]

If one assumes that Putin believes he is already in a de facto war with NATO, striking supply convoys in Poland makes sense. He is simply responding to NATO's belligerence.

Of course, that belief on his part is insane. We can't discount the idea he is high on his own supply of shit.

[The Minsky Moment]

Russia claims that are not at war and they haven't declared war, so they can't accuse NATO of supplying a belligerent.  The weapons transfers are state to state transactions between sovereigns.

[Maladict]

Russia now using long range bombers against Mariupol, according to a Ukrainian source.

[DGuller]

Russia now using long range bombers against Mariupol, according to a Ukrainian source.

Now it's going to be hard to prevent widespread destruction in the city.

[crazy canuck]

It seems to me this provides a good excuse to Putin for why the war in Ukraine has not gone as planned. NATO is to blame. It's much easier to say that he has lost to NATO.

He doesn't have to carry out in attack to create this narrative.

[Jacob]

I don't think losing to NATO is any easier. Victory is the only option.

[PDH]

I don't think losing to NATO is any easier. Victory is the only option.

I agree, though there is some face to be saved with "The WEST ganged up on us!" but that destroys the underlying message of Russian strength and rightness of the attack.  Putin needed a victory here, quick and decisive to both show his strength and once again highlight that the West is a bunch of pantywaists.  In light of this, he needs something to show or in the classic dictator mode, he fears he will look weak.

[celedhring]

I don't think losing to NATO is any easier. Victory is the only option.

I have the vain hope that he will take Mariupol, parade the Azov's banners on May 9th and strangle the prisoners on the steps of the Jupiter Temple declare victory.

[Berkut]

I don't think anything is as absolute as you guy are making it out to be.

Putin is going to be looking for an out, a scapegoat, an excuse.

This was one of the reasons I was against a no-fly zone - why give Putin a chance to change the narrative from he lost a war against Ukraine to he is fighting against an agressive NATO?

I think right now he would be pleased to "lose" to NATO, instead of losing to Ukraine.

Which means I think there is a chance he could look at poking NATO into joining the war directly.

None of this makes sense, and I don't think it would work even for the purpose he would be hoping it would work for - I think it would fail spectacularly. But he is going to be desperate, and desperate autocrats do stupid shit all the damn time.

[Grey Fox]

Would we disclose an unsuccessful attack on a convoy inside NATO territory? The border is flush with Patriot systems. I hope they can detect a couple missiles coming their way & act.

[DGuller]

Wow, Russian women can be pretty chill.  One of them on a recorded phone call gave an okay to her husband to rape Ukrainian women, just as long as he used protection.  Lots of giggling by both parties had been had.

https://mobile.twitter.com/garbanzo0813/status/1513882209349947396

Looks like Internet sleuths identified them: https://www.svoboda.org/a/ukrainskih-bab-nasiluy-voyna-desantnika-bykovskogo/31801593.html.  It helps to put real human* faces on this conversation, and remove doubts that this was a fake conversation.  The good news is that the dude is currently recovering from wounds in the hospital, so maybe he didn't have time to make use of his permission.

[crazy canuck]

I don't think anything is as absolute as you guy are making it out to be.

Putin is going to be looking for an out, a scapegoat, an excuse.

This was one of the reasons I was against a no-fly zone - why give Putin a chance to change the narrative from he lost a war against Ukraine to he is fighting against an agressive NATO?

I think right now he would be pleased to "lose" to NATO, instead of losing to Ukraine.

Which means I think there is a chance he could look at poking NATO into joining the war directly.

None of this makes sense, and I don't think it would work even for the purpose he would be hoping it would work for - I think it would fail spectacularly. But he is going to be desperate, and desperate autocrats do stupid shit all the damn time.

Yeah he has got to be desperately trying to find a way to preserve power and get the hell out of Ukraine. It seems to me the only way he can do that is by finding any reason other than losing to the Ukrainians