Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[viper37]

Russia is poised to invade Poland, so it'll soon be Polish again and you'll be able to visit.    Assuming we are left standing after the nuclear holocaust.

Again? 

C'mon, they haven't in a while.  They forgot to remove their troops after WW2, but that was an honest mistake. 

[Maladict]

I hope the Central European NATO countries are emptying their warehouses of old Warsaw Pact material and sending it to Ukraine.

They should keep a few, they're quickly becoming collector's items.

[Josquius]

I was trying to apply for a visa to visit Kaliningrad from Warsaw and the russian embassy kept hanging up on me so I thought I'd go in person. I walked up to the gate with the address and iirc it was unmarked. Maybe i wasn't at the standard entrance and going through the back door? I hit the button by a gate and they said something incomprehensible (I don't speak russian or polish) and i said why i was there (unsure it was even the russian embassy i was talking to) and the gate magically opened. I walked in and was in a random empty courtyard and a door opened. I walked in the door. I was then in a room that was empty and a guy was behind a black glass (couldn't see him) and was asked why i was there. I told him and he told me to go down a hall.

I then was ended up in a room with 3 people working behind desks and they were the first people I was able to see. They told me the process to apply for a visa. Then as I was about to leave they asked my nationality and I said "US" and they said all the processing times they told me before would be doubled.

I have still never visited Kaliningrad.  

Awesomely kgb.

But I hear there's not much worth seeing in kalingrad.

[mongers]

Sweden is sending another 5,000 AT4s to Ukraine. So 10,000 in total. And also mine clearing equipment.

AT rockets and particularly AT missiles are what the Ukrainian despirately need, as there have been reports of ammunition shortage, especially stuff to stop Russian armour.

So good on Sweden, though I worry some NATO countries might have slowed or stopped deliveries because of specific Putin threats?

[PDH]

AT rockets and particularly AT missiles are what the Ukrainian despirately need, as there have been reports of ammunition shortage, especially stuff to stop Russian armour.

So good on Sweden, though I worry some NATO countries might have slowed or stopped deliveries because of specific Putin threats?

That does not seem to have happened, and indeed the lack of Russian ability to interdict roads means that the supplies are being driven to the front after being transferred to Ukrainian carriers, apparently.

The capture of the direct highway into Kyiv, if it isn't too damaged, will shorten the supply lines there.

[Tamas]

My problem with assuming a war with Russia wouldn't go nuclear is: how else would it end?

I mean, sure maybe a regime change in Russia would give them an opportunity to make peace without the people in power destroying themselves, but otherwise? NATO (probably fairly easily) overpowers and largely destroys the Russian air force and chase their land forces out of Ukraine. So after a couple of months and a lot of collateral damage on both sides there are armies watching each other on the Baltic, Polish, and Ukrainian borders.

What's next?

[Barrister]

My problem with assuming a war with Russia wouldn't go nuclear is: how else would it end?

I mean, sure maybe a regime change in Russia would give them an opportunity to make peace without the people in power destroying themselves, but otherwise? NATO (probably fairly easily) overpowers and largely destroys the Russian air force and chase their land forces out of Ukraine. So after a couple of months and a lot of collateral damage on both sides there are armies watching each other on the Baltic, Polish, and Ukrainian borders.

What's next?

Cold war / stalemate?  With ongoing deep russian sanctions?

[PDH]

My problem with assuming a war with Russia wouldn't go nuclear is: how else would it end?

I mean, sure maybe a regime change in Russia would give them an opportunity to make peace without the people in power destroying themselves, but otherwise? NATO (probably fairly easily) overpowers and largely destroys the Russian air force and chase their land forces out of Ukraine. So after a couple of months and a lot of collateral damage on both sides there are armies watching each other on the Baltic, Polish, and Ukrainian borders.

What's next?

Russia can't keep up with these losses.  There are a lot of potential conscripts, but that leads to more losses.  Their equipment lost, for the most part, shows the units engaged are not cannon fodder but instead their better equipped units.  If the NATO loss estimates are in the ballpark, then the Russians won't be able to maintain this.  It isn't World War 1 or 2, and the sanctions against Russia makes prolonged war that much harder.

This war has broken a lot of myths about the Russian military.

[The Minsky Moment]

I was trying to apply for a visa to visit Kaliningrad from Warsaw and the russian embassy kept hanging up on me so I thought I'd go in person. I walked up to the gate with the address and iirc it was unmarked. Maybe i wasn't at the standard entrance and going through the back door? I hit the button by a gate and they said something incomprehensible (I don't speak russian or polish) and i said why i was there (unsure it was even the russian embassy i was talking to) and the gate magically opened. I walked in and was in a random empty courtyard and a door opened. I walked in the door. I was then in a room that was empty and a guy was behind a black glass (couldn't see him) and was asked why i was there. I told him and he told me to go down a hall.

I then was ended up in a room with 3 people working behind desks and they were the first people I was able to see. They told me the process to apply for a visa. Then as I was about to leave they asked my nationality and I said "US" and they said all the processing times they told me before would be doubled.

I have still never visited Kaliningrad.  

Awesomely kgb.

But I hear there's not much worth seeing in kalingrad.

AR is a fanatical Kantian.

[Jacob]

Russia can't keep up with these losses.  There are a lot of potential conscripts, but that leads to more losses.  Their equipment lost, for the most part, shows the units engaged are not cannon fodder but instead their better equipped units.  If the NATO loss estimates are in the ballpark, then the Russians won't be able to maintain this.  It isn't World War 1 or 2, and the sanctions against Russia makes prolonged war that much harder.

This war has broken a lot of myths about the Russian military.

Yeah... I think there are a few potential scenarios.

1) Russia loses the ability to wage war in Ukraine. Whatever they send there, gets destroyed. The question becomes, if they continue shooting missiles / flying sorties from Russian bases how does Ukraine / the West deal with this. But if Ukraine keeps hanging on (supplied by the West), eventually Russia loses the ability to operate in Ukraine. I don't think a nuclear scenario is likely in this case.

2) In other scenarios, there's an escalation involving NATO forces or territory which then leads to action inside Belarus or Russia (or vice versa). In that case the risk of a nuclear scenario increases. But the operational reality is the same, I think, Russia is going to run out of capacity to operate sooner rather than later - and if they feel Russia proper is under attack that may justify a nuclear strike in their eyes.

3) I suppose there could be a Ukrainian collapse and a negotiated settlement that leaves Putin with an exit ramp. I don't think it's likely - nor do I think it's desirable. It is best if Putin suffers a humiliating loss.

[Jacob]

BTW, apparently Shoigu hasn't been seen in public for a while now.

[PDH]

My idea is (or has been for bit now) that the North starts to crumble and the Soviets Russians do something stupid (and fail even at effectively doing that).  Then, we'll see.

I do not see the Ukrainians surrendering, they may lose a bit more in the south, but the Russians have shown an inability to get away from the coast - when they have tried they have been hosed.

[celedhring]

Right now, I feel we're heading towards a "War in Donbass on steroids" scenario, where Russia can't progress much further, but Ukraine can't dislodge them from the occupied cities. This can last for several years, unless something changes inside Russia.

[Josquius]

Right now, I feel we're heading towards a "War in Donbass on steroids" scenario, where Russia can't progress much further, but Ukraine can't dislodge them from the occupied cities. This can last for several years, unless something changes inside Russia.

Agreed. The onus is on the west to hold the line with sanctions and not doing business with Russia (and Ukraine with the actual fighting of course. But they will)

[Barrister]

Right now, I feel we're heading towards a "War in Donbass on steroids" scenario, where Russia can't progress much further, but Ukraine can't dislodge them from the occupied cities. This can last for several years, unless something changes inside Russia.

I really don't see Russia able to survive for years under this level of sanctions.

Russian plan now seems to be to force a victory in Ukraine, present it as an fait accompli to the West and try to get partial sanctions lifted.  If there's ongoing fighting hard to see how the West budges.