Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[viper37]

Russian soldiers can and will endure a lot, but they have reached the breaking point before. 

Well, they did during WW1.  They didn't in Afghanistan.  They were pulled back at the end of the Cold War, they didn't just drop their weapons and go home.

[viper37]

Is Putin able to admit to himself a defeat or at least stalemate in this war? Or will he escalate or widen the crisis before coming to terms with the Ukrainians?

The bold part.  He's not defeated, Russia is not defeated.  He's recruited Syrians and Chechens, he's pushed for more agressive negotiations with recruits, next step is general conscription, first under 30, then under 40, then under 50, etc, until he has no more manpower or Ukraine has fallen.

Or, he will shell the cities he can to rubble before retreating.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Is Putin able to admit to himself a defeat or at least stalemate in this war? Or will he escalate or widen the crisis before coming to terms with the Ukrainians?

The bold part.  He's not defeated, Russia is not defeated.  He's recruited Syrians and Chechens, he's pushed for more agressive negotiations with recruits, next step is general conscription, first under 30, then under 40, then under 50, etc, until he has no more manpower or Ukraine has fallen.

Or, he will shell the cities he can to rubble before retreating.

Mind you he doesn't have to "recruit" Chechens, Chechnya is part of Russia. They haven't appeared to make any substantial difference--their numbers are relatively small given the size of this invasion which involved over 100 battalions, the Syrian recruits have likewise not shown much of themselves, and very likely will make no meaningful difference. The Syrians are playing the role of the Danes in George W. Bush's "coalition of the willing"--they serve no military purpose, but they serve some sort of domestic one ("see, Denmark is doing this with us, this is normal") in Russia's case it's more showing for domestic consumption that Putin is bringing in other countries so it doesn't seem like solely a Russian thing. Militarily Syria and its probably sub-Afghan National Army quality forces have about as much military relevance as people putting a Ukrainian flag in their Twitter profile.

That being said the idea Russia is defeated isn't dumb, it's shockingly dumb. Their invasion is defeated, absolutely--but Russia itself isn't really close to systemic defeat. They are probably on their fourth strategy shift right now, which means three have failed. That's really bad for a number of reasons. But none of those reasons require Russia to stop fighting next week, next month, or next year. Russia can continue a war at some level of intensity indefinitely in Ukraine, literally for decades and decades. This isn't magic and doesn't come at no cost, but I also think Russia is too stupid and its people too attached to stupid ignorance that such an outcome is very likely what Russia deserves and what some of them may even want. It will make Russia a literal sub-African developing country tier nation come 30 years from now when the US and China will be the two superpowers and Russia will be like an appendage of China. All of those bad things are true--but yes, Russia can keep going at this basically indefinitely.

The war ends when Russia or Ukraine, or both, decide it will end.

[11B4V]

Is Putin able to admit to himself a defeat or at least stalemate in this war? Or will he escalate or widen the crisis before coming to terms with the Ukrainians?

The bold part.  He's not defeated, Russia is not defeated.  He's recruited Syrians and Chechens, he's pushed for more agressive negotiations with recruits, next step is general conscription, first under 30, then under 40, then under 50, etc, until he has no more manpower or Ukraine has fallen.

Or, he will shell the cities he can to rubble before retreating.

And they will take dirt naps.

[DGuller]

I agree with OvB.  The ability of Russians to tolerate depravations and degradations of slavery is legendary.  Just feed them with ideology, and occasionally some food, and they're going to be too busy feeling superior about themselves for enduring so much to think about overthrowing you.

[Josquius]

A thought - I wonder if Russia could spin wiping out Mariupol, where the Azov batallion are based, as mission accomplished in wiping out nazis.
They would actually have some legitimacy in this claim and they could even 1984 style spin "oh no we never said the entire Ukranian government were nazi. Just the nazis were nazis"

[Crazy_Ivan80]

My idea is (or has been for bit now) that the North starts to crumble and the Soviets Russians do something stupid (and fail even at effectively doing that).  Then, we'll see.

I do not see the Ukrainians surrendering, they may lose a bit more in the south, but the Russians have shown an inability to get away from the coast - when they have tried they have been hosed.

Don't think the Ukrainians will surrender either. Apparently there are videos around of the country's number 2 (from about 10 years ago, and reconfirmed this last month) where the war was predicted, with pretty good timing too, and that they war is to be considered as their war of independence.
And that independent Ukraine includes the crimea and donbass.

[HVC]

They might be able to keep Donbas if the west keeps pumping in weapons, but Crimea is a lost cause. 

[Josquius]

If Russia totally collapsed and Ukranian troops marched into crimea would they even be welcomed?

[Legbiter]

Is Putin able to admit to himself a defeat or at least stalemate in this war? Or will he escalate or widen the crisis before coming to terms with the Ukrainians?

The bold part.  He's not defeated, Russia is not defeated.  He's recruited Syrians and Chechens, he's pushed for more agressive negotiations with recruits, next step is general conscription, first under 30, then under 40, then under 50, etc, until he has no more manpower or Ukraine has fallen.

Or, he will shell the cities he can to rubble before retreating.

To get a win Russia needs to take the ruins of Mariupol fairly soon. The defenders have dwindling supplies and very little chance of a tactical breakout. Once that's done the Russians can redirect their efforts towards enveloping the Donbass front. The Ukrainians are expecting the Belarusians to enter the war in the next few days. From looking at a map it seems obvious their job will be to seal off the Polish border to make NATO resupply much more difficult. The encirclement of Kænugarðr would be put on hold while this is done. This could very well go badly for the Ukrainians in the next weeks.

[The Brain]

Zelenskyy addressed the Swedish Riksdag this morning. Commenting on the blue and yellow colors, pointing to the danger all countries close to Russia live in and the importance of defending Gotland, describing Russian crimes, the quick and significant Swedish help to Ukraine and recognizing that it's the first time since WW2 Sweden does anything like this, the importance of harsh and complete sanctions, the importance of prosecuting war criminals, welcoming Swedish help with rebuilding Ukraine after the war and not just in a material sense. Standing ovation of course.

[Sheilbh]

Zelenskyy addressed the Swedish Riksdag this morning. Commenting on the blue and yellow colors, pointing to the danger all countries close to Russia live in and the importance of defending Gotland, describing Russian crimes, the quick and significant Swedish help to Ukraine and recognizing that it's the first time since WW2 Sweden does anything like this, the importance of harsh and complete sanctions, the importance of prosecuting war criminals, welcoming Swedish help with rebuilding Ukraine after the war and not just in a material sense. Standing ovation of course.

I saw that he apparently suggested that Western countries basically sponsor a Ukrainian city or region or industry which they'll support and help reconst - which I think is a really smart idea. I think it might make generic development/post-conflict aid more real to people. But it might also help avoid too much duplication of efforts.

[Grey Fox]

They might be able to keep Donbas if the west keeps pumping in weapons, but Crimea is a lost cause. 

Nah. Crimea is coming back when Ukraine wins. It's too important.

[celedhring]

So, Shoigu sighting.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1506964102077419528

Loved this comment, btw 

Michael Davies
@michaeleda
·
10m
Replying to
@maxseddon
The new Kremlinology - no longer their position on the wall for May Day but where their window is on Zoom.  Top left doesn't feel very favoured.

[jimmy olsen]

Mind boggling
https://mobile.twitter.com/business/status/1506673396465254415

Bloomberg (@business)
A senior NATO military officer says the alliance estimates that Russia has suffered between 30,000 and 40,000 battlefield casualties in Ukraine through the first month of the war, including between 7,000 and 15,000 killed (via AP)

Dumb motherfuckers aired the locations of the ships being unloaded in a newscast and then this happened
https://mobile.twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1506900560167026690

BREAKING

Now beyond any reasonable doubt that a #Russian Navy Alligator Class landing ship exploded in #Berdiansk, Ukraine

Reportedly a Ukrainian ballistic missile strike. Two Ropucha Class ships also present, observed sailing away as fire raged