Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[KRonn]

Apparently, the Russian defense ministry said today, among other things:
- the believe Ukrainians are using Romanian and "other neighbouring" airfields and threatened that this is an act of war
- claim they found evidence of Ukraine having been working together with the USA to develop various biological weapons.

I guess the mildest explanation of these narratives is that they want to shore up support back home, but it is sure as hell isn't indicate of de-escalation or looking for a way out of the war.

I continue to be really concerned. It's all good and well that we try to avoid escalation into WW3, but those efforts require both sides to contribute.

Scary for sure, leading to possible reasons to further escalate no matter if true or propaganda. Lots of propaganda, just like Putin claiming invasion was to replace Nazi leanings in Ukraine's government or something. Stuff for domestic consumption but also leads to more fear and pressure to escalate.

[DGuller]

Stalin still won both of his wars against Finland, though.

Russian war aims in the Winter War: military possession and annexation of the entire country.
Finnish war aims in the Winter War: remain a free and independent country within its original borders.

Result: Russia took 9% of Finland's territory. Much less of the population since almost all Karelians managed to flee.

NB: I don't think defining winners and losers in wars is extremely helpful, but for the Winter War it's more complicated than "Stalin won".

I think ultimately the result of the war is defined by what happened in absolute terms, rather than by what happened relative to aims.  If you manage to lose all your wars by merely conquering a fraction of the territory you aimed to conquer, you're still going to get close to WC eventually.

[The Brain]

Stalin still won both of his wars against Finland, though.

Russian war aims in the Winter War: military possession and annexation of the entire country.
Finnish war aims in the Winter War: remain a free and independent country within its original borders.

Result: Russia took 9% of Finland's territory. Much less of the population since almost all Karelians managed to flee.

NB: I don't think defining winners and losers in wars is extremely helpful, but for the Winter War it's more complicated than "Stalin won".

I think ultimately the result of the war is defined by what happened in absolute terms, rather than by what happened relative to aims.  If you manage to lose all your wars by merely conquering a fraction of the territory you aimed to conquer, you're still going to get close to WC eventually.

OK I give up.

[Admiral Yi]

I had a fantasy that the US military would tell its people they could resign and go volunteer for the Foreign Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine and the US would secretly continue to pay their salaries and benefits.

Speaking of logistics, plenty of evidence that Russian units have run out of fuel, but I've yet to see anything that suggests they're short of ammo or food.

[The Brain]

I had a fantasy that the US military would tell its people they could resign and go volunteer for the Foreign Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine and the US would secretly continue to pay their salaries and benefits.

Speaking of logistics, plenty of evidence that Russian units have run out of fuel, but I've yet to see anything that suggests they're short of ammo or food.

Are American soldiers and officers granted leave to go fight in Ukraine?

[DGuller]

I had a fantasy that the US military would tell its people they could resign and go volunteer for the Foreign Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine and the US would secretly continue to pay their salaries and benefits.

Speaking of logistics, plenty of evidence that Russian units have run out of fuel, but I've yet to see anything that suggests they're short of ammo or food.

I've seen videos (obviously Ukrainian) of Russia MREs that were given to Russian soldiers that expired in 2015.  Apparently that wasn't the kind of MRE that would be safe to eat even 100 years later.  Another video claimed the POW hasn't eaten in days.  Obviously we need to take everything we see from the Ukrainian side with a pinch of salt.

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMQvLzHlTZw

Remember that story about the world's largest transport plane being shot down by the Ukrainians?

The Hindustan Times says it was a Ukrainian Antonov destroyed by Russian shelling of an airport.

[KRonn]

Hmm, yesterday I saw an analyst talk about another reason for Putin's invasion. Analyst said how Lukashenko of Belarus was facing overthrow by his people but Putin intervened, sent in troops to "calm" things down. In Kazakhstan same thing, Russian troops moved in to support the president/dictator after big protests, leading to the government losing control of some areas. The suggestion was that Putin fears this happening to him in Russia, so by going to war it deflects, changes the focus on issues. But I find that a bit questionable, as invading Ukraine is very unpopular in Russia and Putin had to know this going in. The overall take away to me on that is obviously how much these rulers are not liked, showing that some glaring weaknesses exist.

[The Brain]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMQvLzHlTZw

Remember that story about the world's largest transport plane being shot down by the Ukrainians?

The Hindustan Times says it was a Ukrainian Antonov destroyed by Russian shelling of an airport.

Only heard about the destroyed Ukrainian plane.

[Habbaku]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMQvLzHlTZw

Remember that story about the world's largest transport plane being shot down by the Ukrainians?

The Hindustan Times says it was a Ukrainian Antonov destroyed by Russian shelling of an airport.

I remember the story originally saying that it was destroyed by Russian shelling. I never saw a "Ukrainians shot down their own plane" version.

[Admiral Yi]

Only heard about the destroyed Ukrainian plane.

I must have misread.

[DGuller]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMQvLzHlTZw

Remember that story about the world's largest transport plane being shot down by the Ukrainians?

The Hindustan Times says it was a Ukrainian Antonov destroyed by Russian shelling of an airport.

I never heard about the Antonov being shot down.  I thought the story was that it was destroyed by Russian shelling of the hangar.

[PDH]

Only heard about the destroyed Ukrainian plane.

I must have misread.

You might be conflating a couple of things - the Antonov being destroyed and the Ukrainians shooting down a Russian transport on the 2nd or 3rd day of the war.

[Admiral Yi]

So did y'all happen to hear that the world's largest transport, a Ukrainian Antonov, was destroyed by Russian shelling?

[DGuller]

But I find that a bit questionable, as invading Ukraine is very unpopular in Russia and Putin had to know this going in.

Let's not pass off the desired for reality, as the Russian saying goes.  The idea that the war with Ukraine is unpopular in Russia, at this very moment at least, is very much on the desired end of the spectrum.  Most Russians are quite giddy that Ukrainian Nazis are finally getting what was coming to them for the last 8 years. 

If the Russian morale is going to crater, it's not going to crater because the average Russian is overly empathetic to their Ukrainian brothers.  It's going to crater because the war would continue not going well for them.