Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Brain]

My guess is that direct combat between NATO and Russian forces, even if it were not to cause nuclear strikes, would greatly help Putin with public opinion in Russia.

[Tamas]

Just heartbreaking stuff. all those families, especially the doctor lady saying good bye to her kids and walking back to Ukraine as she is needed: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/video/2022/mar/04/im-pregnant-i-left-my-husband-behind-the-people-forced-to-flee-putins-war-video

[Syt]

My guess is that direct combat between NATO and Russian forces, even if it were not to cause nuclear strikes, would greatly help Putin with public opinion in Russia.

That too. I saw a snippet yesterday that the Pentagon and Russian MoD have set up a direct line for consultations to avoid mishaps or accidents. They had something like that in place for Syria, too.

[Threviel]

44 million Russian hating Ukrainians inside NATO is nothing to scoff at. If the west can get them out of this it might be worth some risks.

If NATO chooses to not get directly involved we should send the Ukrainians all weapons we can and get all weapon factories up and running at full speed to supply weapons. If it can be done we should supply training for heavier weapons and air planes and get that into the fight ASAP. Ukrainian fighters could be guided by NATO AWACS.

[Syt]

Reports of civilians being carted from Crimea to Kherson, presumably to provide images of "happy, liberated Ukrainians" for Putin's propaganda.

[Legbiter]

44 million Russian hating Ukrainians inside NATO is nothing to scoff at. If the west can get them out of this it might be worth some risks.

If NATO chooses to not get directly involved we should send the Ukrainians all weapons we can and get all weapon factories up and running at full speed to supply weapons. If it can be done we should supply training for heavier weapons and air planes and get that into the fight ASAP. Ukrainian fighters could be guided by NATO AWACS.

The Ukrainian airforce must be running out of airfields to operate from effectively. The basics are what they need most anyways, ammo, simple portable AT systems, food and medicine. It has to be assistance they can use right out of the box. Nothing fancy that require extensive training, unconquered territory, intact radar installations, etc.

[Threviel]

44 million Russian hating Ukrainians inside NATO is nothing to scoff at. If the west can get them out of this it might be worth some risks.

If NATO chooses to not get directly involved we should send the Ukrainians all weapons we can and get all weapon factories up and running at full speed to supply weapons. If it can be done we should supply training for heavier weapons and air planes and get that into the fight ASAP. Ukrainian fighters could be guided by NATO AWACS.

The Ukrainian airforce must be running out of airfields to operate from effectively. The basics are what they need most anyways, ammo, simple portable AT systems, food and medicine. It has to be assistance they can use right out of the box. Nothing fancy that require extensive training, unconquered territory, intact radar installations, etc.

Yes, that's what I said, send everything we have and start building at top speed new things that we can send. But in addition to that preparations need to be done to prepare for the long haul, if the war drags on they will need heavier weapons.

Secure airfield could be prepared in the extreme west with AA from Nato guided by Nato radars. Send them patriots and radar data from Nato radars. Given time of course, this is not something that can be done in a few weeks or months.

[Syt]

Incidentally Lukoil calling for an end to the war strikes me as a big deal. Russian gas is still very in demand but from what I've seen despite huge discounts no-one is buying Russian oil. Given that's the one sector left it has to be a worry.

Incidentally, former Austrian chancellor Schüssel is now resigning from their board. He's trying to spin it that he was always in favor of constructive relations with Russia, but that the invasion crossed a red line, and he wanted to make sure that Lukoil issues an anti-war position before he resigns.

[Sheilbh]

At this stage it should be clear to all NATO leaders that from a selfish point of view direct intervention (such as a no-fly zone) is unnecessary and counterproductive. I find it highly unlikely that Russia will be in any shape to seek further conquests after militarily defeating Ukraine. They will have suffered large losses, their economy will be in ruins, and they will have the largest country in Europe and its hostile, armed population to pacify.

Also I think several figures in leadership of NATO countries have been very clear over the last week that this is not an option and there won't be a conventional stand-off or direct conflict between NATO and Russian forces. Which is right but also, I think an important communication to make between nuclear powers - that we get their redlines while making our own (attack on NATO forces and countries) very clear.

Separately it looks like the following sites have been blocked partially or fully in Russia:
Facebook
BBC
BBC Russian Service
Meduza
Apple App Store
Google Play
Deutsche Welle
Radio Svavoda (RFE)

I saw reports earlier this week that the BBC Russian Service news websites went from their average 3 million users to 11 million so there was clearly demand for information. It's probably not an issue for the young and tech savvy Russians (who, sadly, probably include the boys who'll be sent to the front) because they'll know how to use a VN - there was a story that one of the independent Russian sites that got shut down earlier this week didn't realise they'd been shut down for a while because all their staff were on VPNs But for older or less tech Russians it's probably worth looking at alternatives including, as in Ukraine, re-launching the old shortwave radio.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting piece in the Times on some thwarted assasination attempts. My first thought is if there really is a mole in the FSB or if it's just other good intel (probably gathered by the Americans) which is being spun to trigger Putin's paranoia. If it is that's very interesting because for a security state if the spooks and the troops are not fully on board that's not great. If it's just to make Putin paranoid about his own spies it seems like another smart bit of the information war from Ukraine (still struck that I don't think I've seen any video of Ukrainian forces) - no doubt with advice from the US.

The stuff about Wagner makes sense as I understand they were used in a similar way in the Donbass to get rid of uncooperative or overly independent local leaders. It also fits more with what the Russians have been saying is their "doctrine" for war in the 21st century.

Separately I mentioned before but I think Zelensky as a martyr is not likely to reduce Ukrainian resistance - so I wonder if this is just frustration/personal feeling now from Putin:

Volodymyr Zelensky survives three assassination attempts in days
Manveen Rana
Thursday March 03 2022, 10.30pm, The Times

President Zelensky at a press conference in Kyiv yesterday. He has began giving updates from nondescript locations rather than outside landmarks as before
SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

President Zelensky has survived at least three assassination attempts in the past week, The Times has learnt.

Two different outfits have been sent to kill the Ukrainian president — mercenaries of the Kremlin-backed Wagner group and Chechen special forces. Both have been thwarted by anti-war elements within Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB).

Wagner mercenaries in Kyiv have sustained losses during their attempts and are said to have been alarmed by how accurately the Ukrainians had anticipated their moves. A source close to the group said it was "eerie" how well briefed Zelensky's security team appeared to be.

On Saturday an attempt on Zelensky's life was foiled on the outskirts of Kyiv. Ukrainian security officials said a cadre of Chechen assassins had been "eliminated" before they could reach the president.

Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, told Ukrainian TV channels that Russian spies had tipped them off about the planned assassination.

Ukrainian officials claim the information that led to the deaths of the Chechens came from disgruntled agents in the FSB who oppose the invasion.

"I can say that we have received information from the FSB, who do not want to take part in this bloody war," Danilov said. "And thanks to this, the Kadyrov elite group was destroyed, which came here to eliminate our president."

The unit serves under Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen president.

The Wagner mercenaries were unaware of the Chechen assassins but have carried out their own attempts to decapitate the government, after being embedded in Kyiv for more than six weeks, tracking the activities of 24 high-profile Ukrainian targets.

The group had been told to await the arrival of the Spetsnaz — Russian special forces — to provide them with a secure corridor out of Kyiv once the assassinations had been completed. They believed the storming of Kyiv would provide a distraction and an opportunity to complete their mission.

However, with a convoy of tanks stuck outside the city, the pace of the attack has been slower than expected.

The mercenaries have come under fierce pressure from Moscow to bring forward their operations to secure a visible victory and they are said to intend to carry out the 24 assassinations on their "kill list" in a matter of days.

A source close to the mercenaries in Kyiv insists that despite the loss of some of the group in botched operations this week, the numbers are still on their side, with almost 400 in the capital alone.

"It only takes one of them to get lucky and everyone goes home with a bonus," The Times was told. The mercenaries are believed to have drawn up plans for another attempt before the weekend.


Zelensky, 44, is accompanied by armed guards and is constantly changing location
SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The Wagner Group first tested its mettle in Ukraine in 2014, when plain-clothes Russian fighters were sent into the Donbas to foment conflict. Unlike regular Russian soldiers, the actions of the mercenaries could be plausibly denied by the Kremlin. Since then, the group has been deployed across Africa, in line with President Putin's objectives. The Wagner Group is run by Yevgeny Prigozhin, who also runs bot factories and an online army, and is known as "Putin's chef".

The Wagner contingent in Kyiv left operations in a number of African countries at the end of December. They regrouped at a base about 60 miles from Moscow, before being dispatched in tranches to the Donbas region and southern Ukraine.

A final group of 400 mercenaries crossed the border from Belarus and stole into the capital, Kyiv before the end of January.

A diplomatic source and Wagner specialist said the Spetsnaz was better equipped than Wagner group but an assassination carried out by mercenaries would be more difficult to trace back to the Kremlin.

"They would be going in there with a very high-profile mission, something that the Russians would want to be deniable — a decapitation of a head of state is a huge mission. In terms of the impact on Russian sovereign policy, this would be perhaps their biggest mission so far. It would have a major impact on the war," the source said.

"It would not be unreasonable that Wagner were used on some form of operation to try and take out the president and do a decapitation job on the Ukrainian government as they are deniable. They have a lot more combat experience than the regular Russian Spetsnaz and they are lunatic enough to do it."

"The risks of trying to get close to the president would be very high so that they would take significant casualties even if they could pin him down.

"One mission they could do, is if they could infiltrate and take in a laser guidance system and they could locate the president and put laser target marker on him then Russian air force could bomb very quickly."

A European intelligence official told Bloomberg that prominent Ukrainian rebels faced public executions. The insider, who claims to have seen documents from the FSB, said that the Kremlin planned to control captured cities with draconian restrictions on civil liberties, "violent crowd control and repressive detention of protest organisers to break morale".

[celedhring]

I'm not very familiar with Russia's "Great Wall". Do people in there have unfiltered access to social media? If so, they've got all the info at their fingertips without much hassle. Sharing it of course might get them in trouble.

[Syt]

I'm not very familiar with Russia's "Great Wall". Do people in there have unfiltered address to social media? If so, they've got all the info at their fingertips without much hassle. Sharing it of course might get them in trouble.

Not sure, but people do know how to access certain info. And that's why I'm not a fan of calls to disconnect them from the internet.

Incidentally, Hannity suggested NATO bombing the stalled convoy ... and just not telling anyone it was NATO. Truly, a cunning strategist.

[Sheilbh]

I'm not very familiar with Russia's "Great Wall". Do people in there have unfiltered address to social media? If so, they've got all the info at their fingertips without much hassle. Sharing it of course might get them in trouble.

Russia doesn't really have an effective "Great Firewall" - it's all a bit more piecemeal than China. There's been various laws and regulations to try and make a more "sovereign" internet - normally under the guise of cybersecurity or data protection. But it's nowhere near as comprehensive or technologically advanced as China.

From my understanding the Russian state has the capacity to throttle access to sites - which they did earlier to Facebook and Twitter. But the general approach has been less a "Great Firewall" and more of a (to remember GCSE biology) semi-permeable membrane. But there's the internet access stuff at one end and then the the media stuff at the other - for example the disclaimer that every independent media company was required to put on all their content (often this is the entire Tweet from, say, Meduza and you need to click on the article to see the story):

THIS MESSAGE (MATERIAL) IS CREATED AND (OR) DISTRIBUTED BY A FOREIGN MASS MEDIA PERFORMING THE FUNCTIONS OF A FOREIGN AGENT AND (OR) A RUSSIAN LEGAL ENTITY PERFORMING THE FUNCTIONS OF A FOREIGN AGENT.

It looks like Russia's moving from that semi-permeable approach to just far more direct bans/taking websites down - including Facebook, Twitter, BBC as well as domestic independent media. Again it all seems to suggest that things are not quite going as planned - social media is flooded with Ukrainian content, visits to the BBC Russian pages almost quadrupled etc. There were reports that Telegram (which is very unsecure anyway) was going to impose censorship but they walked back from that - I wouldn't be surprised to see that as the next step though and another sign of things going badly.

[Tamas]

If Putin really wants to have Zelensky assassinated that tells me he is unable to comprehend the different circumstances to his own which are (or may be) in Ukraine.

If Putin got offed then yes that'd would wreak absolute chaos in Russia and possibly end the war on the spot.

But what if Zelensky is killed? I mean, sure there may be an incompetent successor and that's a win for Russia, but I can't see how events would unfold drastically different than if he remains alive. Could be my ignorance, though, of course.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I'm not very familiar with Russia's "Great Wall". Do people in there have unfiltered address to social media? If so, they've got all the info at their fingertips without much hassle. Sharing it of course might get them in trouble.

Not sure, but people do know how to access certain info. And that's why I'm not a fan of calls to disconnect them from the internet.

Incidentally, Hannity suggested NATO bombing the stalled convoy ... and just not telling anyone it was NATO. Truly, a cunning strategist.

Pilots go on vacation too :p