Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[celedhring]

Catalan TV's correspondant was just reporting from Kjiv, and you could see buses running in the background, plus some light traffic. Surprised to see public transport still operating, unless it's being used to move troops around?

[Syt]

Catalan TV's correspondant was just reporting from Kjiv, and you could see buses running in the background, plus some light traffic. Surprised to see public transport still operating, unless it's being used to move troops around?

Troops and/or supplies, I would imagine.

[crazy canuck]

No way back for Putin, we can only hope for a palace revolt.

Saddam Hussein stayed in power after losing in the Gulf War.

But there was an uprising, the issue there is it was sectarian in nature.  The opposition to Putin is likely more generalized.

[Legbiter]

Separately, via Jeremy Cliffe, key measures announced by Scholz look good:

Key policy points from Scholz:

- over 2%/GDP for defence
- €100bn special fund for defence
- two new LNG terminals
- supplementary coal and gas reserves
- accelerated renewables roll-out
- new Bundeswehr deployments in NATO eastern flank states

An adult German foreign policy? We'll see. They'd have to introduce national service again, otherwise the Bundeswehr will just bloat it into the world's fanciest military canteens, a team of personal masseuses for every existing member of the armed forces, etc.

[Syt]

Germany could start its own Foreign Legion. 

[Syt]

The embodiment of job satisfaction this image is not.

[Sheilbh]

But there was an uprising, the issue there is it was sectarian in nature.  The opposition to Putin is likely more generalized.

I'm not sure on the chances but I also wonder how Putin's isolation would play into any palace coup - it seems to me that it would be easeir to plot and pull off if he's never out and among the rest of the leadership and his most loyal aide(s) are in a bubble with him.

[mongers]

I'm not surprised Britain's foreign secretary seems out of her depth, it's a bad idea to suggest Brits can go and fight in Ukraine, as any captured will be a propaganda gift to Putin and will likely be held as hostages for future negotiations.

Hell Putin would probably have some executed as 'illegal combatants'.

[mongers]

But there was an uprising, the issue there is it was sectarian in nature.  The opposition to Putin is likely more generalized.

I'm not sure on the chances but I also wonder how Putin's isolation would play into any palace coup - it seems to me that it would be easeir to plot and pull off if he's never out and among the rest of the leadership and his most loyal aide(s) are in a bubble with him.

Hopefully we'll find out in the next few days and weeks.

Though we shouldn't underestimate his control through fear over the elite of his government, I fear it could now peculate down into the rest of Russian soverity and the wider world

[Syt]

Frank Gardner

BBC Security Correspondent

Russia's announcement that its nuclear deterrent has been put on "special alert" is a sign of both President Putin's anger at the West's anti-Russian sanctions and his enduring paranoia that his country is under threat from Nato.

His move has certainly got the West's attention. This sort of escalation is exactly what Nato military planners feared and it's why the alliance has repeatedly announced it will not be sending troops to help Ukraine repel its Russian invaders.

But Russia's offensive is not going entirely to plan. On day four, not a single Ukrainian city is in Russian hands and the Russians appear to be taking heavy casualties.

This will be causing some frustration and impatience in Moscow. And it's hard to see the proposed peace talks on the Belarus border reaching a deal that works for both Moscow and Kyiv.

Putin wants Ukraine fully back into its sphere, the Zelensky government wants it to stay independent. Short of partition, that doesn't leave much room for compromise.

So, coupled with today's nuclear-tipped warning to the West to back off, we are likely to see an intensification of Russia's offensive on Ukraine in coming days, with even less regard for civilian casualties than has been shown so far.

[Syt]

Meanwhile, Ukraine says they've repelled an attack on Kharkiv.

Russian results so far kinda feel like whenever I play any of the John Tiller NATO vs Warsaw Pact games as Soviets.

[mongers]

Meanwhile, Ukraine says they've repelled an attack on Kharkiv.

Russian results so far kinda feel like whenever I play any of the John Tiller NATO vs Warsaw Pact games as Soviets.

I think what's happening now in Ukraine might well have happened then in West Germany ca 1980, but on a much reduced scale and without the chemical and tactical nuclear weapons, so far.

[The Larch]

Germany could start its own Foreign Legion. 

It's not for a lack of historical precedents... 



I know, I know, cheap shot. 

[Sheilbh]

Hopefully we'll find out in the next few days and weeks.

Though we shouldn't underestimate his control through fear over the elite of his government, I fear it could now peculate down into the rest of Russian soverity and the wider world

It feels like the regime's going to have to move to using repression as more or less the only tool given there are already (for Russia) surprising and large protests in tens of cities across the country - and Russian TV is apparently showing normal broadcasting with just a short update on Ukraine on the news (the news channels may be different) which doesn't suggest a wildly popular conflict.

I'm not surprised Britain's foreign secretary seems out of her depth, it's a bad idea to suggest Brits can go and fight in Ukraine, as any captured will be a propaganda gift to Putin and will likely be held as hostages for future negotiations.

Hell Putin would probably have some executed as 'illegal combatants'.

It's legal in Ukraine for foreigners to join their military (and they've set up an "international legion" for foreigners in Ukraine who want to join the Home Guard) and Zelensky has issued a call for Europeans/foreigners with military experience to come to Ukraine and sign up.

I don't have an issue with the British government saying they support people who want to do that. Similarly the reports that the French are authorising Ukrainians in the French Foreign Legion to go home also strikes me as reasonable.

[Syt]

Meanwhile, Ukraine says they've repelled an attack on Kharkiv.

Russian results so far kinda feel like whenever I play any of the John Tiller NATO vs Warsaw Pact games as Soviets.

I think what's happening now in Ukraine might well have happened then in West Germany ca 1980, but on a much reduced scale and without the chemical and tactical nuclear weapons, so far.

There was a mockumentary in the 90s about a NATO/Warsaw Pact escelation. It's jumping off point was 1989, and a strongman taking over from Gorbachev. The democratic movements are brutally oppressed and an accidental border kerfuffle in Berlin leads to military conflict. At any rate, The WP make rapid gains while NATO gears up defenses. However, after two weeks they run out of supplies and their logistics break down. NATO manages to take out the WP operational HQ in Poland and goes on the counter offensive, eventually driving into Poland. USSR fire a warning nuke to detonate above the Atlantic, and things go downhill from there. It was oddly chilling how the presentation used footage from the Western leaders at the time (reframing their comments on Saddam and the Gulf crisis/war 1990/91 for this) and combining it with footage of WP/NATO military exercises.

At any rate, lack of supplies and basically grinding to a halt after initial gains was a major theme for the WP units in that show.