Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

I made a number of predictions in this thread, but none in the last couple of days, so here is another one:  I think Putin is going to be in power for a couple of more decades, and Russia's influence over the internal politics in the Western countries will just continue to grow.

How do you see that working? You think the right wing will solidify as pro-Russia? And when you say the West, do you mean the US or do you think it applies in Europe too?

[jimmy olsen]

There's definitely a broad sense of anger and backbone being shown by EU members towards Russia, I'm particularly surprised by Germany. Not sure what has lead to such a large shift in thinking.

They feel betrayed and duped? A lot of them seemed sure that Russia wouldn't invade.

[mongers]

The only options we have for peace in Europe now are either Putin sees out his 'retirement' in Xi's China or he ends lying in a pool of his blood on a floor in the Kremlin.

[DGuller]

I made a number of predictions in this thread, but none in the last couple of days, so here is another one:  I think Putin is going to be in power for a couple of more decades, and Russia's influence over the internal politics in the Western countries will just continue to grow.

How do you see that working? You think the right wing will solidify as pro-Russia? And when you say the West, do you mean the US or do you think it applies in Europe too?

I don't think the jinx is going to work if I say out loud it's a jinx.

[alfred russel]

Betting odds on Putin surviving the year in charge of Russia fell from 79% at the start of the day to 72% now.

Realistically though, if you want to find a way out of this that isn't too bad and without Putin, the people that have been with Putin up until now, either as senior military leaders or government officials, need to see a future for themselves in some future state. The earlier meme that was going around "can we just skip to the part where Putin shoots himself in his bunker" as a Hitler / WWII reference isn't really what anyone should want as Hitler fought to the bitter end--putting aside that Russia has thousands of nuclear weapons it wasn't a great experience.

[grumbler]

Apparently Denmark is donating 2,700 M72 EC LAW AT weapons to Ukraine as well. Apparently it's a one-use weapon that requires about 5 minutes of instruction to use. So point and click, basically.

I hope the users live to see the 50th anniversary next year of this weapon's introduction.

[viper37]

These are Russia's best combat formations displaying their skill. If Russia fought NATO they would have to field even worse troops.

These are young, barely trained conscripts for the first wave.

[DGuller]

Apparently Denmark is donating 2,700 M72 EC LAW AT weapons to Ukraine as well. Apparently it's a one-use weapon that requires about 5 minutes of instruction to use. So point and click, basically.

I hope the users live to see the 50th anniversary next year of this weapon's introduction.

Still, it beats Molotov cocktail, doesn't it?

[Legbiter]

These are Russia's best combat formations displaying their skill. If Russia fought NATO they would have to field even worse troops.

These are young, barely trained conscripts for the first wave.

It's pretty bizarre. It's like the Russians just dashed in, ran out of supplies and have now just realized they're in a war. Where are the follow-up echelons to hammer everything with artillery?  

[Jacob]

Apparently the rouble has dropped by 41% this morning in Russia

[DGuller]

Apparently the rouble has dropped by 41% this morning in Russia

Oh, no! 

[DGuller]

These are Russia's best combat formations displaying their skill. If Russia fought NATO they would have to field even worse troops.

These are young, barely trained conscripts for the first wave.

It's pretty bizarre. It's like the Russians just dashed in, ran out of supplies and have now just realized they're in a war. Where are the follow-up echelons to hammer everything with artillery?  

However this ends, the sheer incompetence of the Russian military in the first days of the war just seems so unfathomable to me, especially given that in retrospect we can be sure they were planning to go to war for at least three months. 

To make a strained poker analogy, they've gotten so used to getting everyone to fold with their bluffs that they started to think that they could bluff their way through showdown as well.  They thought that if they just laid down their king high confidently, the other player with two pair would just be so awed by their confidence that they would muck their hand without showing it.

[Jacob]

Yeah...

My guess is ideological buy-in to Putin's "the decadwnt West, great Russia and the little Russians" was enough of a requirement at the leadership level that it impacted the operational planning.

[Legbiter]

Apparently the rouble has dropped by 41% this morning in Russia

Early trading. Lets see if the Russians can give Zimbabwe some competition.

[Jacob]

I do find it delicious if it does transpire that Putin's whole "I've laid down the reserves to put me beyond Western sanctions until they are forced to deal with me" (with massive foreign currency reserves) turns out to be a weakness when the West says "yeah those reserves and obligations? Frozen. Enjoy hyperinflation."