Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

Civilian barricades today in Energodar to stop Russian supplies/convoys. From what I understand this is an area that Russia "controls":
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499073503902973964?s=20&t=_0M9Y9xUJUS9tYBYuFCVig

[Jacob]

South Africa? The rest I understand, but I don't have a read on the South Africa angle.

ANC is hard left, in so far as it isn't hard corrupt

I mean "they're a bunch of tankies" could explain it, but I'd expect there to be some more concrete political/ financial/ interpersonal elements in play as well - which are the ones I'm curious about.

[Jacob]

I made the mistake of reading some Russian Twitter users, the legitimate-looking ones (though obviously you never know).  That was a mistake.  I think those in the West who fret about sanctions hitting ordinary Russian citizens who are also "victims of Putin" don't really know these victims all that well.

Conversely, I'd caution you against taking a limited social media sample as indicative of Russian sentiment overall. That stuff is super biased and intense on pretty much any topic in pretty much any place. I mean, I have no doubt that many many Russians have bought into Putin's propaganda, but we also have evidence of people resisiting ... and as with most things, there are most likely many many people who only paid a little attention and are just focused on getting through their day.

[Syt]

The vote at the UN:

[Tamas]

In Hungary Orban is now clearly playing a double game. A bit behind the curve but he seems to be agreeing to all EU motions around this war and condemning Russia, but back home for the internal crowd he plays the neutral and the reluctant, lip-service supporter of Ukrainian independence, mixed with a bit of double talk.

The problem he is facing I guess is that "Russia is the real deal and the West is decadent and about to collapse" was a key topic of his for quite a while.

Anecdotally, though, it seems the vast majority of Hungarians abhor Russia and what they have done. It would appear vocal pro-Russians on social media are almost exactly the same who have been vocal anti-vaxxers. There might be more people quietly being ok with Russia's invasion, but they don't dare to speak up.

[Jacob]

Looked like a bunch of African nations abstained, not just RSA.

[Berkut]

I made the mistake of reading some Russian Twitter users, the legitimate-looking ones (though obviously you never know).  That was a mistake.  I think those in the West who fret about sanctions hitting ordinary Russian citizens who are also "victims of Putin" don't really know these victims all that well.

Conversely, I'd caution you against taking a limited social media sample as indicative of Russian sentiment overall. That stuff is super biased and intense on pretty much any topic in pretty much any place. I mean, I have no doubt that many many Russians have bought into Putin's propaganda, but we also have evidence of people resisiting ... and as with most things, there are most likely many many people who only paid a little attention and are just focused on getting through their day.

I think twitter is downright dangerous and this is why.

It is such an easy and simple way to "see" what is happening socially, that people have this natural tendency to imagine that the twitterverse is some kind of representation of the views of the populace. 

I think that is broadly grossly untrue. The twitter mob might align with the views of the larger population, but in many if not most cases there is very significant selection bias amongst twitter users generally, and those who feel a need to post on twitter in response to a particular topic.

[Sheilbh]

I mean "they're a bunch of tankies" could explain it, but I'd expect there to be some more concrete political/ financial/ interpersonal elements in play as well - which are the ones I'm curious about.

I think South Africa has put a lot of time and effort into making BRICS more than an acronym. Also I think - as with India - historic ties matter.

As with India I think South Africa planning to build more nuclear power plants and I wonder if, as with India, Rosatom is involved?

[DGuller]

I made the mistake of reading some Russian Twitter users, the legitimate-looking ones (though obviously you never know).  That was a mistake.  I think those in the West who fret about sanctions hitting ordinary Russian citizens who are also "victims of Putin" don't really know these victims all that well.

Conversely, I'd caution you against taking a limited social media sample as indicative of Russian sentiment overall. That stuff is super biased and intense on pretty much any topic in pretty much any place. I mean, I have no doubt that many many Russians have bought into Putin's propaganda, but we also have evidence of people resisiting ... and as with most things, there are most likely many many people who only paid a little attention and are just focused on getting through their day.

That's a fair point, though I'm not just going off Twitter, but also reports from my family of people who speak to their friends/relatives living in Russia. 

I do get a feeling that a lot of Westerns think that if they just manage to get truthful information into Russia, then it'll immediately be like the ending of XCOM 2, where people all at once realize they've been lied to and decide to rebel within 2 minutes.  You'll find that Russians are well aware of the propaganda that we call truth, they're not stupid.  They're well aware that some people claim that it's Russia and not Ukraine that's shelling Kharkiv, they're just too savvy to buy into that nonsense and are disappointed that you aren't.

[Syt]

Looked like a bunch of African nations abstained, not just RSA.

Also, all former Soviet republics (except Baltics and Georgia who voted yes, and Belarus who voted against).

[Syt]

It would appear vocal pro-Russians on social media are almost exactly the same who have been vocal anti-vaxxers.

There seems to be a significant overlap here, too. Of course a lot of anti-vaxxers have turned to outlets like RT as alternative to mainstream media.

[Jacob]

That's a fair point, though I'm not just going off Twitter, but also reports from my family of people who speak to their friends/relatives living in Russia. 

I do get a feeling that a lot of Westerns think that if they just manage to get truthful information into Russia, then it'll immediately be like the ending of XCOM 2, where people all at once realize they've been lied to and decide to rebel within 2 minutes.  You'll find that Russians are well aware of the propaganda that we call truth, they're not stupid.  They're well aware that some people claim that it's Russia and not Ukraine that's shelling Kharkiv, they're just too savvy to buy into that nonsense and are disappointed that you aren't.

So like Gaijin de Moscu, for example.

But yeah, I'm familiar with the dynamic - it's the same in China, tbh. Of course many Russians support their government, and there's not going to be some film-like ending where suddenly everyone wakes up and change their minds.

But conversely, there are also Russians who are not convinced and who resist, and Russians who are not convinced and keep quiet because they fear resisting.

[DGuller]

It's not accidental.  Putin's promotion of Covid conspiracy theories should've been regarded as a biological warfare.

[DGuller]

But conversely, there are also Russians who are not convinced and who resist, and Russians who are not convinced and keep quiet because they fear resisting.

Of course there are, there is never a 100% agreement on anything, we've seen some of their children in the pictures yesterday.  I'm sure that some of the Russian troops in Ukraine are anti-Putin as well, that doesn't mean that Ukraine shouldn't fire back on Russian troops because they may be firing at a decent guy who actually hates Putin.  War sucks that way.

[Jacob]

But conversely, there are also Russians who are not convinced and who resist, and Russians who are not convinced and keep quiet because they fear resisting.

Of course there are, there is never a 100% agreement on anything, we've seen some of their children in the pictures yesterday.  I'm sure that some of the Russian troops in Ukraine are anti-Putin as well, that doesn't mean that Ukraine shouldn't fire back on Russian troops because they may be firing at a decent guy who actually hates Putin.  War sucks that way.

Agreed.