Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[DGuller]

DGuller: saying you're from the Ukraine should be enough.  If that's not enough for you, you can take the Canadian chicken run and start wearing a little Ukrainian flag pin. 

Yeah, but then you'll be the target of all the pro-Putin fascists.

Now that I think of it, I wonder how the war will play out on Brighton Beach. On the one hand, Russian immigrants are disproportionately Ukrainian.     Wait, this last sentence is going to sound even more nonsensical in a week.    We're going to need a more up-to-date shorthand term to collectively describe immigrants from former republics of USSR.

Anyway, the USSR immigrants are disproportionately coming from Ukraine, but they're also disproportionally Trumpist.  It's also far from guaranteed that coming from Ukraine means you necessarily root for an independent Ukraine, a lot of them immigrated at a time when that concept seemed ridiculous.  I think we also all know that absent a shocking attack on the US itself, the Trumpists sooner or later are going to be Putin's army on the US soil.

[Admiral Yi]

Star of David?  Yamulka?

[PJL]

the Ukraine

Ukraine - the country that doesn't like to be the definitive article. 

[Zanza]

If (or I guess when) the war starts, what are the thoughts on what happens directly between Russia and the West?  Tense unease?  Lots of Gaijins surfacing everywhere on the Internet explaining how Russia is actually the restrained one?  Some cyber attacks by fat Russian teenagers inspired by patriotism?  An all out salvo of cyberwarfare and attacks on cyber infrastructure?  Nuclear war?

No idea, but at the same time, when Russia invades, what's next for them? 

The 150.000 soldiers they massed on the border are nowhere near enough to occupy Ukraine with 30 million people, especially when any Ukrainian partisans would be supported by Western powers. So what's their endgame here?

The whole affair seems ridiculously stupid by Russia. But there are credible reports that Putin lost it and it looks more and more likely that they will actually start a destructive war...

[DGuller]

One end game could be a Georgia scenario.  You completely demolish the country in an open war, and then get whatever you want in a peace deal.  That would probably mean direct transfers of chunks of Ukraine to Russia, forced Finlandization of whatever remains, and a victory parade on Red Square where Putin rides in on a white horse wearing only a smirk above his belt line.

[Jacob]

Seeing reports that not only have various Western embassies told their nationals to leave and ramped down their staffing, but Russia is also withdrawing embassy personnel from Ukraine

[Zanza]

One end game could be a Georgia scenario.  You completely demolish the country in an open war, and then get whatever you want in a peace deal.  That would probably mean direct transfers of chunks of Ukraine to Russia, forced Finlandization of whatever remains, and a victory parade on Red Square where Putin rides in on a white horse wearing only a smirk above his belt line.

Isn't that the status quo? Russia already occupies Eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea. Ukraine is already finlandized to a degree as it cannot join NATO or EU in its current state of partial occupation. 

[Sheilbh]

Seeing reports that not only have various Western embassies told their nationals to leave and ramped down their staffing, but Russia is also withdrawing embassy personnel from Ukraine

I think they started it the end of last week. Lavrov in the press conference with Truss basically said the UK and US were drawing down their embassy staff which suggested the "Anglo-Saxons" were up to something - so Russia would start withdrawing to avoid their staff getting caught in whatever the Anglo-Saxons were planning. Masterclass in Russia's foreign policy by trolling

But yeah they're now pulling out more - but still saying it's in response to Western embassies pulling out staff.

[DGuller]

One end game could be a Georgia scenario.  You completely demolish the country in an open war, and then get whatever you want in a peace deal.  That would probably mean direct transfers of chunks of Ukraine to Russia, forced Finlandization of whatever remains, and a victory parade on Red Square where Putin rides in on a white horse wearing only a smirk above his belt line.

Isn't that the status quo? Russia already occupies Eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea. Ukraine is already finlandized to a degree as it cannot join NATO or EU in its current state of partial occupation.

I don't think it would be even close to status quo.  First of all, Eastern Ukraine is bigger than the two "breakaway republics".  There is also a land bridge to Crimea that I'm sure Russia would very much like to have, and it's not all in Eastern Ukraine.  At a certain point Russia may also want to actually incorporate the parts of Ukraine rather than just keep them as festering sores for Ukraine to deal with indefinitely. 

I also think that Ukraine could be Finlandized a lot more than it is right now, and after a successful war Russia could effectively get a veto power on Ukraine's foreign dealings, with the understanding that bad things can happen again if they don't move on with their life.

[DGuller]

Russia may launch all their ICBMs, explaining that they're just doing it just to keep the batteries in the rockets charged and there is nothing to worry about, and Shelibh would still  at their master level trolling.

[Eddie Teach]

the Ukraine

No way, my 1980s Risk board can't be wrong.

[Sheilbh]

Isn't that the status quo? Russia already occupies Eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea. Ukraine is already finlandized to a degree as it cannot join NATO or EU in its current state of partial occupation.

Agree - and I struggle on that point. But ultimately Russia has achieved "success" in terms of what they wanted by leveling Grozny, outrageous use of force in Syria, invading Ukraine and Georgia. So I think their calculation on force is fundamentally very different.

The best I've heard is the "if not now, when?" point that Russia fears that Kyiv will remain hostile, Ukraine will grow more hostile and is increasing its military capability so this is possibly the last opportunity to arrest that without too high a cost for Russia. In that way Ukraine isn't really Finlandised - it's partialy occupied but the state and military are growing more capable and the direction of politics and opinion in Ukraine is, understandably, hostile to Russia and getting more so.

But I think they are miscalculating how much opposition they'll face - and if the reports that they're aiming for regime change are true, I don't think that will be as easy as Russia thinks. On the other hand which is terrifying if that's what they're doing is Russia's approach to ending resistance/insurgency which we've seen previously in Chechnya and Syria. But I don't know if Russians would view Ukraine as different.

The thing that strikes me though is all of the reports of Putin's meetings and calls with foreign leaders mention that he is talking a lot about history. And I wonder if Mark Galeoti's theory is partly true and some of this is just ego and place in history for Putin and the most extreme yet reassertion of Russia. I can't help but wonder if he's talking about the history of Western "betrayals" of Russia etc because he is preparing himself to be the leader who "redeems" them. It's that similar calculation that worries about the Balkans too (no doubt encouraged by Russia).

Russia may launch all their ICBMs, explaining that they're just doing it just to keep the batteries in the rockets charged and there is nothing to worry about, and Shelibh would still  at their master level trolling.

It's absurd and it's trolling and it's especially Lavrov's specialism.

[Jacob]

No way, my 1980s Risk board can't be wrong.

I think that's Putin's position.

[PJL]

My prediction - if Russia doesn't invade Ukraine by the 22nd, then they won't do it this year, or in the short term in general.

[DGuller]

It's absurd and it's trolling and it's especially Lavrov's specialism.

I don't agree that gaslighting is trolling.  Trolling sounds like something annoying, but ultimately harmless beyond the costs of annoyance.  Gaslighting is a weapon, and one that Russia wields effectively and others struggle to counter.  That's why the  didn't strike me as fitting.