Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[The Larch]

On the topic of how a possible war could affect food prices, I think it was The Economist that published a piece recently about how some Middle Eastern countries have an extreme dependance on grain imports from both Ukraine and Russia, and used Egypt as an example. IIRC, 85% of their grain imports come from Russia and Ukraine, and food prices in the country have already risen by something like 30%, so a potential crisis could be brewing in those countries if those grain imports get disrupted. Other countries that could potentially be affected, all of them heavy importers of Ukrainan grain, were Lebanon, Lybia, Yemen, and as far away as Bangladesh and Indonesia.

[DGuller]

It really does feel very sobering right now.  I've been wondering about the possibility of Russians feeding bullshit intel to US, either through a double agent or a burned agent supplied with bullshit, but it seems like a remote possibility.  I would think that US intel would be aware of such possibilities, as that trick has probably been tried before in history.  Such intel would also probably be gathered from multiple sources, since it's hard to give orders to start a war without a whole bunch of people getting enough information for the intelligence agency to put together.  I wonder if Russians could call off the attack now after legitimately having set it in motion, just to make the US lose cred and make everyone exhausted before the actual strike, but that's probably also not something you can turn on or off with a switch.

[Syt]

Has there been any proper explanation of "why now"?

Also, I know Russia is fairly isolated now - is Putin prepared to make that even worse?

[DGuller]

Any news regarding Taiwan?  Does China have real capability to attack Taiwan any time soon?

[HVC]

Something concerning regarding the US intelligence brief is that it describes the potential military action in rather stark terms. We're not talking about special forces doing surgical operations, little green men or the Donetsk & Lugansk folks misteriously finding massive Russian arms caches in the middle of the forest. They're talking about all out, old school war. Aerial bombings, missile attacks and full invasion. That is terrifying if true. I really hope it's overblown, otherwise it'll be human drama on a level unseen since the Balkan Wars.

I wonder how much of that is tied to arms being supplied to Ukraine. Harder for found caches to take on a military with high tech arms. Or perhaps I'm over thinking it a show of military force was always on the table.

[HVC]

Any news regarding Taiwan?  Does China have real capability to attack Taiwan any time soon?

I think Taiwan is safe for now. While it's a good time to attack, Xi can keep it in his back pocket. He's going after celebrities and video game now to appease and distract the masses.

[DGuller]

Hmm, some though just occurred to me now, and I guess the fact that it didn't occur to me before is a reflection of my faith in the country.  If the war does start, and Russia and US get into at least a bit of a cyberwar, do Americans on the streets, particularly the New York City and Jersey City streets, know the difference between Ukrainian guys with a Russian accent and Russian guys with a Russian accent?

[Syt]

Hmm, some though just occurred to me now, and I guess the fact that it didn't occur to me before is a reflection of my faith in the country.  If the war does start, and Russia and US get into at least a bit of a cyberwar, do Americans on the streets, particularly the New York City and Jersey City streets, know the difference between Ukrainian guys with a Russian accent and Russian guys with a Russian accent?

Time to hire a speech coach?

[Tamas]

If you think there is no real chance of this war starting, remember it's Russia. They were shooting to keep a European vassal in 1956, they were perfectly ready to start shooting in another in 1968, they very nearly started a proper civil war around 1990, they waged literal war against technically their own country in Checnya in the 1990s, they grabbed parts of Georgia in 2008, and they did already do a limited attack on Ukraine just a few years ago.

[Zanza]

They also let their European satellites and half of the Soviet Union go peacefully in 1989-1991. History is a poor indicator for the future.

For all we know, they might launch a full scale invasion and involve other countries or this might just fizzle out.

[Syt]

I mean, could this be the Russian version of the "Nixon the madman" strategy?

[Tamas]

They also let their European satellites and half of the Soviet Union go peacefully in 1989-1991. History is a poor indicator for the future.

Sure we can always hope the proper parallels aren't the 6 cases where they felt like they had the military power to accomplish what they want, but the 1 case where they figured out they didn't and staid put. After which single event they did 3 military campaigns of various scales to either prevent further disintegration of their empire, or to reclaim parts of it.

[Josquius]

The dissolution of the Soviet Union was more down to who was in power at the time than the power being lacking.

Hmm, some though just occurred to me now, and I guess the fact that it didn't occur to me before is a reflection of my faith in the country.  If the war does start, and Russia and US get into at least a bit of a cyberwar, do Americans on the streets, particularly the New York City and Jersey City streets, know the difference between Ukrainian guys with a Russian accent and Russian guys with a Russian accent?

I'd be surprised if they know the difference between a Russian accent and a German accent.

[Eddie Teach]

So now Guller is disowning his Russian half?

[Zanza]

They also let their European satellites and half of the Soviet Union go peacefully in 1989-1991. History is a poor indicator for the future.

Sure we can always hope the proper parallels aren't the 6 cases where they felt like they had the military power to accomplish what they want, but the 1 case where they figured out they didn't and staid put. After which single event they did 3 military campaigns of various scales to either prevent further disintegration of their empire, or to reclaim parts of it.

Other than Russia using violence, what are those parallels?

Ukraine and Georgia were false flag operations where they pretended it is just separatists, not Russian military invading another country. Chechnya was of course their military, but then they did not invade another sovereign country. Their close call with Civil War in 1990 is even less clear of a parallel to me, but maybe you can enlighten me here.

Last time they invaded another country was Afghanistan in the 1980s. The West supported their enemies and it became a quagmire.  Maybe that's the proper historical parallel?