Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Grey Fox]

Yes. The Antonov company, a Ukrainian outfit, tweeted about it.

[Habbaku]

The Antonov An-225, a plane that is the largest transport in the world, and Ukrainian, was destroyed by Russian shelling.

[Josquius]

But I find that a bit questionable, as invading Ukraine is very unpopular in Russia and Putin had to know this going in.

Let's not pass off the desired for reality, as the Russian saying goes.  The idea that the war with Ukraine is unpopular in Russia, at this very moment at least, is very much on the desired end of the spectrum.  Most Russians are quite giddy that Ukrainian Nazis are finally getting what was coming to them for the last 8 years. 

If the Russian morale is going to crater, it's not going to crater because the average Russian is overly empathetic to their Ukrainian brothers.  It's going to crater because the war would continue not going well for them.

Sure... But are old ladies who spend their lives watching TV news really what a viable dictatorship power base is built on?
I'll totally believe a majority are just swallowing the kremlin line. But it does seem a significant amount of discontent is brewing with a lot of educated people leaving. I've heard talk of Russia reintroducing exit visas, particularly around IT experts.

[The Brain]

The Antonov An-225, a plane that is the largest transport in the world, and Ukrainian, was destroyed by Russian shelling.

Now katmai can't see the world.

[DGuller]

Sure... But are old ladies who spend their lives watching TV news really what a viable dictatorship power base is built on?
I'll totally believe a majority are just swallowing the kremlin line. But it does seem a significant amount of discontent is brewing with a lot of educated people leaving. I've heard talk of Russia reintroducing exit visas, particularly around IT experts.

I think you're overestimating the moral compass of the youngsters in Russia.  Sure, young professionals are more likely to be opposed to Putin and the war, but "more likely to be" != "overwhelmingly". 

Let's also not overestimate the value of Internet in fighting propaganda; I think it has been clear for a long time that for people already inducted into a cult, Internet serves to reinforce the brainwashing, not combat it.  Just because somebody has access to something other than TV for their news doesn't mean that they're protected from swallowing the Kremlin line.

[Jacob]

Yeah, I was just looking at a twitter thread of Russians adopting the Z symbol, putting it on cars, their clothing, etc to show their support for the regime and the invasion.

I mean, it's not surprising that a totalitarian strongman will have support. Some are in it for their own advantage, some are in it because temperamentally they are drawn to Fascists, some are in it because it's the path of least resistance for them, and some are in it because they've been taken in by the propaganda. That's going to add up to a substantial number, no matter what.

[OttoVonBismarck]

There's also probably a very large of the Russian population that doesn't deeply care one way or another as long as their quality of life is fine. While that might seem to suggest they'd become anti-Putin due to a quality of life hit from sanctions, even that is questionable. How bad will the quality of life get, and for how long? The path of least resistance is still not going to be "actively challenging the regime." I mentioned a few dozen pages ago that the heart of resistance to Putin had always been educated urbanites in St. Pete and Moscow, so the protests there (number in the thousands, which again--these are metro areas with millions of residents) are not amazingly representative of anything.

[Josquius]

Yeah, I was just looking at a twitter thread of Russians adopting the Z symbol, putting it on cars, their clothing, etc to show their support for the regime and the invasion.

I mean, it's not surprising that a totalitarian strongman will have support. Some are in it for their own advantage, some are in it because temperamentally they are drawn to Fascists, some are in it because it's the path of least resistance for them, and some are in it because they've been taken in by the propaganda. That's going to add up to a substantial number, no matter what.

A lot is made of how Ukraine is winning the propeganda war online but with this sort of thing I do think they could be making an error. Rather than playing the card of democracy and being a country that wants peace a fair bit of the stuff the Ukrainians are putting out does seem a bit fascy. It's just positive as it's for once supporting a democracy against a dictatorship.
But if you have a football fan world view where everything is red team vs blue team, a bunch of gloating Pro blue team, aren't the red team stupid stuff is only going to entrench your views.

I do think ultimately the people who buy into fascism are less likely to be useful people however. And if divisions are being created like those Russia sowed elsewhere within Russia then that isn't good for them. Especially considering where the anti government feeling is coming from.

[The Brain]

Winning Russian minds is good, but winning Western minds is much more important. The primary method of communication with Russians is NLAWs and Stingers.

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBUo1xK48n4

At the 10 second mark is a table put out by Ukrainian MOD on Russian equipment destroyed and casualties inflicted.

[Admiral Yi]

A lot is made of how Ukraine is winning the propeganda war online but with this sort of thing I do think they could be making an error. Rather than playing the card of democracy and being a country that wants peace a fair bit of the stuff the Ukrainians are putting out does seem a bit fascy.

Please elaborate.

[Jacob]

I disagree, Tyr. You are not going to convince the fash to be less fash by being more gentle.

[The Brain]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBUo1xK48n4

At the 10 second mark is a table put out by Ukrainian MOD on Russian equipment destroyed and casualties inflicted.

Interesting. Will be very interesting to get better estimates when the dust has settled, and compare.

[Syt]

[DGuller]

It seems like Belarus army still hasn't entered the war, and more than that, there seems to be a lot of chatter that Belarussian rank-and-file are simply refusing.  Hopefully that is true, and also hopefully one way or the other, Belarus can switch sides.  Surely they have to understand that it's now or never.