Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Iormlund]

Wouldn't be more logical to strike downwards to the Sea of Azov, strike at the Kerch bridge with missiles again and isolate Crimea?

Yeah. The problem is the Russians know that as well, so that axis should be heavily defended by now.

Ukraine is going to need a shitload of Western heavy equipment to reach Melitopol or Berdyansk.

[Josquius]

I don't feel sorry for any international company that invested in Russia and got burned.  I think it was clear long before the war that you have to be greedy or stupid to invest in Russia, since your investment was always at the mercy of the Russian government.  If it seemed like a lucrative investment, it was lucrative only because you didn't price in political risk premium.

Same with China I think. If you've invested a lot you should probably be working on a helluva plan B. 

I'd probably say Russia is worse than China. Back in the noughties China did seem to be heading in a positive direction and the potential rewards from gambling there were immense.
Russia has clearly been going down hill for a while and isn't a particularly large or wealthy market.

The suggestion that annexed parts of Ukraine are not core Russian territories sounds... defenestratable.

It does show how much that is worth even in Russia that they clearly hold those territories to different standards.
I believe the people there don't even get full Russian passports but rather some kind of 2nd class subject paper.

[Legbiter]

The problem is the Russians know that as well, so that axis should be heavily defended by now.

Ukraine is going to need a shitload of Western heavy equipment to reach Melitopol or Berdyansk.

Yeah plus Russia hasn't really suffered enough to want to end the war. They think they can win the war fast in the May-July period once the trained-up mobiks arrive with their museum gear and vehicles. I fear this is a 3-4 year war with Russia. Even if Ukraine drives them back, hell recaptures Crimea, the Russians will just switch to bombarding the self-imposed borders of Ukraine at least as long as Putin is alive.

I just hope our microbrain elite is prepared to stomach the length of the fight... 

[Legbiter]

Germany trying to put the screws on the US regarding tanks.  

Berlin Won't Allow Exports of German Tanks to Ukraine Unless U.S. Sends Its Own

BERLIN—Germany won't allow allies to ship German-made tanks to Ukraine to help its defense against Russia nor send its own systems unless the U.S. agrees to send American-made battle tanks, senior German officials said on Wednesday.

Hopefully this is all an elaborate behind-the-scenes pantomine...

Just give the Ukrainians everything they need to take Russia to the graveyard minus nukes.

[Admiral Yi]

They think they can win the war fast in the May-July period once the trained-up mobiks arrive with their museum gear and vehicles.

I think they have a more realistic assessment of the situation than that.

[mongers]

The British challengers are just a gesture, the Ukrainians need hundreds of MBTs, so that means either M1 Abrahams or Leopard 2*.

IIRC there's an issue with the gas turbined M1, they may be too thirsty for the Ukrainian fuel resources, if so it's Panzers or nothing. 


* The French have a couple of hundred Leclercs in storage, so maybe them and the UAE could cook up an alternative offer?

[Legbiter]

The British challengers are just a gesture, the Ukrainians need hundreds of MBTs, so that means either M1 Abrahams or Leopard 2*.

IIRC there's an issue with the gas turbined M1, they may be too thirsty for the Ukrainian fuel resources, if so it's Panzers or nothing. 


* The French have a couple of hundred Leclercs in storage, so maybe them and the UAE could cook up an alternative offer?

Useful European Leopard tanks are all in service in frontline units, there are not division-level numbers being held in reserve anywhere I think. Hence the tank-company-per-country formula I think. And I bet the German factory that manufactures them manages 20 in a good year...

How many Challengers could the UK knock out in a year in case of a major European war I wonder? 

The Ukrainians are already operating a Fantasy League of weaponry, both Soviet shitpile and NATO, how hard would it be for them to add a couple dozen Abrams to the mix? 

[mongers]

The British challengers are just a gesture, the Ukrainians need hundreds of MBTs, so that means either M1 Abrahams or Leopard 2*.

IIRC there's an issue with the gas turbined M1, they may be too thirsty for the Ukrainian fuel resources, if so it's Panzers or nothing. 


* The French have a couple of hundred Leclercs in storage, so maybe them and the UAE could cook up an alternative offer?

Useful European Leopard tanks are all in service in frontline units, there are not division-level numbers being held in reserve anywhere I think. Hence the tank-company-per-country formula I think. And I bet the German factory that manufactures them manages 20 in a good year...

How many Challengers could the UK knock out in a year in case of a major European war I wonder? 

The Ukrainians are already operating a Fantasy League of weaponry, both Soviet shitpile and NATO, how hard would it be for them to add a couple dozen Abrams to the mix? 

No idea, however it probably being  BAE system they probably sold the toolings and production line     for scrap value to a recycling company.

[Sheilbh]

The British challengers are just a gesture, the Ukrainians need hundreds of MBTs, so that means either M1 Abrahams or Leopard 2*.

IIRC there's an issue with the gas turbined M1, they may be too thirsty for the Ukrainian fuel resources, if so it's Panzers or nothing. 


* The French have a couple of hundred Leclercs in storage, so maybe them and the UAE could cook up an alternative offer?

I think the intent with the Challengers was to try to provide cover for Germany as their stance had been they didn't want to do anything alone in terms of arms shipments. However, they've clarified that what Britain does doesn't matter and they want the US to supply tanks - I imagine that would apply if the French were to send any too - so the providing cover unfortunately won't help. Although maybe the Western allies will come up with something at the donor's meeting this week.

Given that the UK government has announced plans for new tanks, I wonder if that could be sped up so we can just give more to Ukraine - ideally enough to make a more material impact.

[Grey Fox]

If the US was providing Abrams, Germany would fine another excuse to not let anyone send Leopards.

[Legbiter]

If the US was providing Abrams, Germany would fine another excuse to not let anyone send Leopards.

I know the average ethnic German is a 57 year old childless Star Wars aficionado who votes Green but they've, by circumstance, been forced to find some steel in their backbone. So have we all.

Germany will come through.

[mongers]

The British challengers are just a gesture, the Ukrainians need hundreds of MBTs, so that means either M1 Abrahams or Leopard 2*.

IIRC there's an issue with the gas turbined M1, they may be too thirsty for the Ukrainian fuel resources, if so it's Panzers or nothing. 


* The French have a couple of hundred Leclercs in storage, so maybe them and the UAE could cook up an alternative offer?

I think the intent with the Challengers was to try to provide cover for Germany as their stance had been they didn't want to do anything alone in terms of arms shipments. However, they've clarified that what Britain does doesn't matter and they want the US to supply tanks - I imagine that would apply if the French were to send any too - so the providing cover unfortunately won't help. Although maybe the Western allies will come up with something at the donor's meeting this week.

Given that the UK government has announced plans for new tanks, I wonder if that could be sped up so we can just give more to Ukraine - ideally enough to make a more material impact.

If that's the Challenger 3, then they'll be very few new frames, that programme is very much about   rebuilding existing Challenger 2s to a new configuration.

[Threviel]

Sweden's sending 50 CV90, lots of lighter stuff and the Swedish Army is to prepare the transfer of Archer's with Excalibur and other ammunition.

Further Sweden and Ukraine will cooperate on purchases of military materiel, meaning that Ukraine can use Swedish defense contracts.

[Josquius]

 It is curious how things have turned around since 9 months or so where everyone was discussing the death of tanks.

[Threviel]

CV90 is not a tank.