Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

Rumour is that Putin is going to formally declare war today.

[jimmy olsen]

Saw a couple of dozen wagnerites get blasted by artillery while crawling up a trench line on Reddit combat footage.

[Josquius]

Has anyone seen remotely reliable estimates on the losses in Bakmut?
Loads of estimates to be seen for Russian dead but very quiet on Ukraine.

[mongers]

Has anyone seen remotely reliable estimates on the losses in Bakmut?
Loads of estimates to be seen for Russian dead but very quiet on Ukraine.

Probably hard to strip out and isolate the figure from the casualty rate on the wider 'eastern front' and I'm not sure what that would tell you about the war anyway.

As it is the Russians seem to be grinding away and gaining a couple of hundred metres weekly or occasionally 1 or 2km every month or two?

Edit:
Given how poor Russian strategic oversight is (ie Putin),  I wonder once Urkaine receives and digests enough Western armour, might it be possible for them to strike NW of Kharkiv into Russia and conduct a giant encirclement of the whole Luhansk and Donets regions, ending up on the Sea of Azov?

[Tamas]

Has anyone seen remotely reliable estimates on the losses in Bakmut?
Loads of estimates to be seen for Russian dead but very quiet on Ukraine.

Probably hard to strip out and isolate the figure from the casualty rate on the wider 'eastern front' and I'm not sure what that would tell you about the war anyway.

As it is the Russians seem to be grinding away and gaining a couple of hundred metres weekly or occasionally 1 or 2km every month or two?

Edit:
Given how poor Russian strategic oversight is (ie Putin),  I wonder once Urkaine receives and digests enough Western armour, might it be possible for them to strike NW of Kharkiv into Russia and conduct a giant encirclement of the whole Luhansk and Donets regions, ending up on the Sea of Azov?

I don't think so and I hope they won't do it. They need to learn from the example of the Germans in WW1. They made sure not to attack core Russian territories to avoid triggering some patriotic fervour stopping the unfolding collapse of the regime.

[Zanza]

BASF was the most important partner of Gazprom through its subsidiary Wintershall. They have now written off their entire Russia business for 7.4 billion Euro. Ouch.

[Josquius]

Has anyone seen remotely reliable estimates on the losses in Bakmut?
Loads of estimates to be seen for Russian dead but very quiet on Ukraine.

Probably hard to strip out and isolate the figure from the casualty rate on the wider 'eastern front' and I'm not sure what that would tell you about the war anyway.

As it is the Russians seem to be grinding away and gaining a couple of hundred metres weekly or occasionally 1 or 2km every month or two?

Edit:
Given how poor Russian strategic oversight is (ie Putin),  I wonder once Urkaine receives and digests enough Western armour, might it be possible for them to strike NW of Kharkiv into Russia and conduct a giant encirclement of the whole Luhansk and Donets regions, ending up on the Sea of Azov?

I don't think so and I hope they won't do it. They need to learn from the example of the Germans in WW1. They made sure not to attack core Russian territories to avoid triggering some patriotic fervour stopping the unfolding collapse of the regime.

Yeah, if Russia does declare war they would likely be hoping for Ukrainian troops to step over the border to let them better paint the whole thing as a war but they have no choice but to fight against evil nazi nato invaders.

Worth noting the Ukrainians haven't admitted any strikes on Russian territory, always just taking a quite populist right winger style approach of "Oh, did those planes in Russia explode? What a shame. Guess thats to be expected with all the missiles being fired off. Oh well."

[The Brain]

The suggestion that annexed parts of Ukraine are not core Russian territories sounds... defenestratable.

[DGuller]

BASF was the most important partner of Gazprom through its subsidiary Wintershall. They have now written off their entire Russia business for 7.4 billion Euro. Ouch.

I don't feel sorry for any international company that invested in Russia and got burned.  I think it was clear long before the war that you have to be greedy or stupid to invest in Russia, since your investment was always at the mercy of the Russian government.  If it seemed like a lucrative investment, it was lucrative only because you didn't price in political risk premium.

[The Brain]

As was reported last spring, and also brought to attention again recently in Sweden, IKEA is still operating their chain of non-IKEA brand stores in Russia. The ruble must flow.

[Legbiter]

I don't feel sorry for any international company that invested in Russia and got burned.  I think it was clear long before the war that you have to be greedy or stupid to invest in Russia, since your investment was always at the mercy of the Russian government.  If it seemed like a lucrative investment, it was lucrative only because you didn't price in political risk premium.

Same with China I think. If you've invested a lot you should probably be working on a helluva plan B. 

[Barrister]

I don't feel sorry for any international company that invested in Russia and got burned.  I think it was clear long before the war that you have to be greedy or stupid to invest in Russia, since your investment was always at the mercy of the Russian government.  If it seemed like a lucrative investment, it was lucrative only because you didn't price in political risk premium.

Same with China I think. If you've invested a lot you should probably be working on a helluva plan B. 

It depends on when you made your investment I think.  Things were looking up for Russia in the 90s, and even early into the Putin years.  But after 2008, and definitely 2014, western companies should have been very careful investing in Russia.

[The Brain]

At least in Sweden, since the 90s "Russia" has been a byword for high-risk investment. Obviously there's nothing in itself wrong with high-risk investment, and I'm sure investments in Russia the past decades have bought a lot of boats and summer houses for Westerners.

[Valmy]

It depends on when you made your investment I think.  Things were looking up for Russia in the 90s, and even early into the Putin years.  But after 2008, and definitely 2014, western companies should have been very careful investing in Russia.

After this little incident: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Russian_constitutional_crisis I think Russia was fucked. It was just begging for another strongman at that point. But granted it took awhile before that became obvious.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Has anyone seen remotely reliable estimates on the losses in Bakmut?
Loads of estimates to be seen for Russian dead but very quiet on Ukraine.

Probably hard to strip out and isolate the figure from the casualty rate on the wider 'eastern front' and I'm not sure what that would tell you about the war anyway.

As it is the Russians seem to be grinding away and gaining a couple of hundred metres weekly or occasionally 1 or 2km every month or two?

Edit:
Given how poor Russian strategic oversight is (ie Putin),  I wonder once Urkaine receives and digests enough Western armour, might it be possible for them to strike NW of Kharkiv into Russia and conduct a giant encirclement of the whole Luhansk and Donets regions, ending up on the Sea of Azov?

I don't think so and I hope they won't do it. They need to learn from the example of the Germans in WW1. They made sure not to attack core Russian territories to avoid triggering some patriotic fervour stopping the unfolding collapse of the regime.

Wouldn't be more logical to strike downwards to the Sea of Azov, strike at the Kerch bridge with missiles again and isolate Crimea?