Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Admiral Yi]

Yeah, unless WW3 with nuclear exchanges starts, the biggest winner of this war is going to be the West:  they finally have a cause to unite behind, and they get to deputinize their own societies.  The biggest loser will be Ukraine, because they're going to be bombed into stone age or enslaved.  Russia will also be a big loser, but being a pariah is still not as bad of a fate as being destroyed.

If Ukraine survives there's bound to be a buttload of reconstruction aid.

[DGuller]

I'm declaring the whole "Ukrainians being anti-Russian helps Putin" nonsense dumbest line of discussion in this entire thread.

Agreed.  IMO, if there is one thing that Ukrainians could do even better, it's to speak Russian in the videos as much as possible (which they already do).  The more they speak Russian, the more they can be understood by Russians, and the more relatable they are to Russians.  It's understandable that Zelensky has to speak Ukrainian, but I believe that if he spoke in Russian, then he could really plant the seeds of doubt into some of the less polluted minds in Russia, he's an excellent orator.

[DGuller]

Yeah, unless WW3 with nuclear exchanges starts, the biggest winner of this war is going to be the West:  they finally have a cause to unite behind, and they get to deputinize their own societies.  The biggest loser will be Ukraine, because they're going to be bombed into stone age or enslaved.  Russia will also be a big loser, but being a pariah is still not as bad of a fate as being destroyed.

If Ukraine survives there's bound to be a buttload of reconstruction aid.

Depends on under what conditions they survive, and it's kind of a definition of cold comfort. 

[OttoVonBismarck]

It's worth noting there is a big difference between Putin winning the invasion and winning the occupation. The invasion is the easy part in most modern wars that we have seen.

[Admiral Yi]

On another note, I saw a clip that said the Soviet jets Poland offered to Ukraine were contingent on the US rushing delivery of the F-16s already on order, the problem being the next batch are earmarked for Taiwan.

[Syt]

Just had a discussion with an Austrian coworker. "I saw a video from an American political analyst, and really the US and NATO have been provoking Putin for many years, expanding NATO when he was telling them repeatedly to stop. What else is he to do? He needs to protect Russia!"

Now, I do think that the Russian desire for security/security paranoia is real. But they had plenty options to turn a new leaf with their neighbors and starting over instead of insisting on a sphere of influence with them as hegemon.

[Syt]

[Zanza]

Your colleague's statement degrades Ukrainians to mere objects of great power politics. Their desire for security is obviously as valid as that of Russia, Poland, the Baltics or any other country.

[Zanza]

I hope we give Ukrainians laptops and whatever else they need to access Western intelligence. It's hardly a secret that intelligence is shared as Jen Psaki openly said that.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Just had a discussion with an Austrian coworker. "I saw a video from an American political analyst, and really the US and NATO have been provoking Putin for many years, expanding NATO when he was telling them repeatedly to stop. What else is he to do? He needs to protect Russia!"

Speaking of this, I have noticed from time to time the useful idiots referring to the threat to Russia of "American missiles in Ukraine" and making references to 1962.  Since these "American missiles" don't exist, I wonder if this is some subtle propaganda seeding by the Russians or if they are just really ignorant on the capabilities of the US military and just assume we have nuclear-capable, mobile, land-based ballistic missiles.

[DGuller]

Who is ASBMilitary?  I see them posting all kinds of Russian propaganda.

[Syt]

Your colleague's statement degrades Ukrainians to mere objects of great power politics. Their desire for security is obviously as valid as that of Russia, Poland, the Baltics or any other country.

That's the line of argument I took; that NATO membership is voluntary, and driven by a desire for security. And what the alternative would be, if all the countries in Eastern Europe were on their own. She conceded that she's not saying NATO should be dissolved. She seemed rather unbelieving when I said that - in my personal opinion - if the Baltics weren't in NATO they would have disappeared off the map already. "But Austria has also been neutral for so long and wasn't threatened/invaded!" At which point she was called into a meeting, so we had to cease our talk.

[Syt]

Speaking of this, I have noticed from time to time the useful idiots referring to the threat to Russia of "American missiles in Ukraine" and making references to 1962.  Since these "American missiles" don't exist, I wonder if this is some subtle propaganda seeding by the Russians or if they are just really ignorant on the capabilities of the US military and just assume we have nuclear-capable, mobile, land-based ballistic missiles.

Oh yeah, she also brought up Cuba, and that the violent reaction by the US was the same as Russia's reaction now.

[The Minsky Moment]

That model laptop was released in 2008 . . .

[Syt]

I hope we give Ukrainians laptops and whatever else they need to access Western intelligence. It's hardly a secret that intelligence is shared as Jen Psaki openly said that.

Yeah, but hopefully something more current than a laptop that (according to the stickers) came with Windows Vista Basic.