Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

Several U.S. media outlets claim that the U.S. wants to assist Ukraine with modern anti-ship missiles to counter the Russian naval blockade, either directly or through a European ally that can facilitate the transfer. The assertions are based on statements made by U.S. authorities.

Harpoon anti-ship missile appears in mind when the rumors surfaced, however, it's not the only option. Naval Strike Missile is another missile on the table.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/05/u-s-may-boost-ukraines-defense-with-harpoon-missiles/

Hope they get good missiles.

Denmark is apparently supplying Ukraine with Harpoon missiles.

[Legbiter]

anyways: The Ruzzians seem to be making progress. Let's hope it's more a last hurrah, rather than a sign of things to come

They're making small, incremental gains for the last week or so. Since they can't do air superiority for some reason they grind out these horribly costly gains from their rail network logistics. The problem is the same for any Ukrainian offensives against land occupied by the Russians. Without adequate air cover any advance against a modern dug-in defender will be extremely costly.

[Legbiter]

Denmark is apparently supplying Ukraine with Harpoon missiles

If only Norway could supply them with 50 or so of their Naval Strike missiles...

[PDH]

Russian gains seem to be coming at a (still) high cost.  Ukrainian forces might be getting worn down a bit, but a tidbit in the NYT article yesterday about the first 12 M777 howitzers being used said the rest of the US bunch would be coming into service in a week or so.  If things are still like this at that time, Russian positions like the Popasna Salient could be the focus of the massed new artillery.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

mhh, lets hope so but I'm worried. A lot of small bites add up.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah they are definitely pushing forward - I think they are pushing to reach a point where they'll call a halt and dig in. At which point (possibly this autumn/winter with inflation and energy being a potentially bigger issue) I'd expect they'd say they're going for a ceasefire to divide NATO/make Ukraine "aggressors" pushing against a Russian force that has ceased fire etc.

Hopefully we'll be ready for it, but I'm not sure - support is starting to feel a little more brittle on day 90 than it did in early March.

[Josquius]

I'm hopeful. I've read enough projecting Russia bleeding for some gains for a month or two then Ukraine should be ready to push back.... But all depends how much Ukraine is bleeding too. If their casualties are equal that ain't great.
Especially worrying as Ukraines top troops will be in the area

[viper37]

Don't know if you talked about it already, I missed a few pages...
But here's an interesting tweet.

A Russian reporter proudly reports on the Russian army shelling Ukrainian position... while revealing its exact position on tv.  The Ukrainian army destroys it and later thanks the journalist for his help.  

[viper37]

I keep reading stories about how Putin is seriously ill and essentially physically incapacitated, and one thing that strikes me is that it must be a pretty quick collapse if true.  Just a couple of years ago this guy was playing hockey and scored 8 goals in one game. 

Some suspect that the opposing team was not playing at its best that day, but I would think that you still need to be in a pretty good condition to be able to skate and nudge the puck into the goal 8 times.  How do you go from that to full Chernenko in a couple of years?  Does Parkinson's really progress so quickly?

When the goalie and the defencemen go out of their way to let the puck enter the net, it becomes easier.

[PDH]

mhh, lets hope so but I'm worried. A lot of small bites add up.

You are right, and that is why it is a bit of a race right now - the new artillery being trained up for the Ukrainians vs the willingness of the Russians to meatgrinder away.

The Ukrainian infantry is the bit suffering (well, the Russian infantry as well), and that could be the key.

[DGuller]

I keep reading stories about how Putin is seriously ill and essentially physically incapacitated, and one thing that strikes me is that it must be a pretty quick collapse if true.  Just a couple of years ago this guy was playing hockey and scored 8 goals in one game. 

Some suspect that the opposing team was not playing at its best that day, but I would think that you still need to be in a pretty good condition to be able to skate and nudge the puck into the goal 8 times.  How do you go from that to full Chernenko in a couple of years?  Does Parkinson's really progress so quickly?

When the goalie and the defencemen go out of their way to let the puck enter the net, it becomes easier.

I've seen the footage, obviously the opposing team had a really terrible day.  However, I would think that even putting the puck in the empty net 8 times requires one to be in a good physical shape.  Just skating around and staying on your feet (as long as carpets are not involved) is not something that's easy to do for a terminally ill person.

[PDH]

I've seen the footage, obviously the opposing team had a really terrible day.  However, I would think that even putting the puck in the empty net 8 times requires one to be in a good physical shape.  Just skating around and staying on your feet (as long as carpets are not involved) is not something that's easy to do for a terminally ill person.

I am not sure about the terminal illness being bandied about online.  However, regarding the hockey game, it was 3 years ago I read, all reports were that he was in really good shape up until recently.  It is the fleshy cheeks and the grabbing the desk posture that set off all the alarms.

[Sheilbh]

I am not sure about the terminal illness being bandied about online.  However, regarding the hockey game, it was 3 years ago I read, all reports were that he was in really good shape up until recently.  It is the fleshy cheeks and the grabbing the desk posture that set off all the alarms.

Slightly weird hand and foot movements too - like in the meeting with Lukashenko yesterday. It's just odd in a filmed piece with a head of state that they're making jerky movements that seem disconnected from what they're saying.

Denmark is apparently supplying Ukraine with Harpoon missiles.

Yeah I think UK's been sending harpoons and brimstones as well. I think it was one of them that needed some special adapted gizmo for Ukraine (possibly to launch from land?).

[DGuller]

I've seen the footage, obviously the opposing team had a really terrible day.  However, I would think that even putting the puck in the empty net 8 times requires one to be in a good physical shape.  Just skating around and staying on your feet (as long as carpets are not involved) is not something that's easy to do for a terminally ill person.

I am not sure about the terminal illness being bandied about online.  However, regarding the hockey game, it was 3 years ago I read, all reports were that he was in really good shape up until recently.  It is the fleshy cheeks and the grabbing the desk posture that set off all the alarms.

Hence what I said originally:  if Putin really is very sick, as some believe with some supporting evidence, then it was a rapid deterioration.

[Josquius]

It would certainly be an easy way out of this for Russia... Blame it on Putin losing his faculties.