Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[PJL]

Meanwhile, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Alexey Danilov says "stop panicking about the Russian invasion." As reported by BBC's Russian Service:

https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-60105642

Google translation:

Asked what is happening now near the Ukrainian border, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine said: "The number of Russian troops does not increase as many people depict it today. Do they have maneuvers there - yes, they do, but they were with them all the time. This is their territory, they have the right to grind left and right there. Is it unpleasant for us? Yes, it's unpleasant, but it's not news to us. If it's news for someone in the West, I'm sorry."

...

As for the high-profile statements in the Western media about the possible imminent outbreak of hostilities by Russia, Danilov explains this primarily by major geopolitical processes and domestic political events taking place in many countries of the world. All this together could contribute to the fact that the world community not only finally paid close attention to Ukraine, but also more and more countries are ready to commit themselves to assisting Kiev in case of aggression by Moscow.

However, as Danilov emphasizes, all statements of readiness to help are very, very important, but Kiev is primarily concerned about practical things.

"We are concerned about the availability of weapons to protect against Russian aggression," says the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council. "And when these weapons began to enter our country - this is a plus, it has never happened before."

...

Returning to the issue of the inevitability of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Danilov recalled that not all countries share these fears, and cited the EU countries as an example, which are not yet considering the evacuation of their embassies. He noted that any destabilization of the situation in Ukraine, including reasoning in foreign media about the coming war and the departure of foreign diplomats, play only into the hands of the Kremlin and undermines the economy of Ukraine.

Intentionally or not, he's repeating a lot of the same messaging as the Russian officials: Nothing new is happening between the two countries, what's new is the Western reaction including weapons supplies.

That is deeply concerning, we could be seeing the Finlandisation of Ukraine, which would be a very bad thing indeed.

[Berkut]

Your careful cutting and pasting of the article is amusing.

[Berkut]

Some other things Gaijan's source said, that he decided did not need to be included in his "summary":

According to Danilov, the war with Russia essentially began after the capture of Crimea in 2014 and has been going on for the eighth year already, and if this is news for politicians in the United States and other countries, then for Ukraine this is old reality.

Danilov recalled that the threat from Russia has existed for a long time, and partly blamed the Americans for not letting the Kremlin know in time what aggression could be fraught with.

"In 2008, President Putin, at a meeting with the President of the United States, made a statement that such a country as our country does not exist, that it is an artificial formation, and, unfortunately, he did not receive a harsh answer from the President of the United States at that time," Danilov emphasized. you have to do it in time. If you don't do it in time, democracy will be under threat. Democracy must defend itself, if necessary, with arms in hand. Because autocratic regimes, which today have a great desire to destroy this democracy, are a threat not only to our country, This is a common threat for Europe, for the world."

So his point is that not that there isn't any Russian aggression, it is that Russian aggression has been going on for over a long time, and it's nice that people are starting to notice, but that for the men and women tasked with defending Ukraine from Russia, that is an effort that has been ongoing for over a decade, and is not anything new. Far from that aggression being driven by NATO interference, it in fact has come about because the West did not stand up for Ukraine earlier!

The entire tone of the article is nearly in direct opposition to how it is characterized by our resident Definitely Not A Russian Troll.

[The Brain]

You can almost hear the hardbass from the St Petersburg troll basement.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Your careful cutting and pasting of the article is amusing.

I cut the key points and linked the full article for those who'd like to read the full material.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Another signal from the press conference by Josep Borrell, as he speaks around the 20 minute 10 second mark:

"...I've talked many times to Mr. Blinken and haven't heard anything new that would increase the feeling of fear of the immediate attack, no."

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/nl/media-galleries/fac/2022-01-24-fac/?slide=2

You're welcome to listen to the entire conference and make your own conclusions. You may need to flip right if the correct video doesn't display, the site system is a little odd.

Earlier on, he talks about the embassies situation, calling it not an "evacuation but an opportunity for non-essential personnel to leave if they want" (quoting by memory).

[Sheilbh]

That is deeply concerning, we could be seeing the Finlandisation of Ukraine, which would be a very bad thing indeed.

It's not the worst thing that could happen when there's thousands of men with guns on the border.

And, as Peter Beinart pointed out, a lot of the old Cold Warriors - Kennan, Kissinger, Zbig - always thought Ukraine would need to be neutral. I think it's absolutely right to push on territorial integrity of Ukraine and the sovereignty of its government - but the reality is we wouldn't accept them into NATO or the EU because of the mutual defence obligations.

I feel like there's been a little bit of a trend of people getting, in my view over their skis on this - so it's gone a little from the Ukrainian government has a right to align with the West to the West has a duty to let them join NATO/the EU and/or treat them as a member already. I don't think that follows.

[The Brain]

Ukraine being armed to the teeth and strongly anti-Russian does indeed not sound so bad.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Some other things Gaijan's source said, that he decided did not need to be included in his "summary":

According to Danilov, the war with Russia essentially began after the capture of Crimea in 2014 and has been going on for the eighth year already, and if this is news for politicians in the United States and other countries, then for Ukraine this is old reality.

Danilov recalled that the threat from Russia has existed for a long time, and partly blamed the Americans for not letting the Kremlin know in time what aggression could be fraught with.

"In 2008, President Putin, at a meeting with the President of the United States, made a statement that such a country as our country does not exist, that it is an artificial formation, and, unfortunately, he did not receive a harsh answer from the President of the United States at that time," Danilov emphasized. you have to do it in time. If you don't do it in time, democracy will be under threat. Democracy must defend itself, if necessary, with arms in hand. Because autocratic regimes, which today have a great desire to destroy this democracy, are a threat not only to our country, This is a common threat for Europe, for the world."

So his point is that not that there isn't any Russian aggression, it is that Russian aggression has been going on for over a long time, and it's nice that people are starting to notice, but that for the men and women tasked with defending Ukraine from Russia, that is an effort that has been ongoing for over a decade, and is not anything new. Far from that aggression being driven by NATO interference, it in fact has come about because the West did not stand up for Ukraine earlier!

The entire tone of the article is nearly in direct opposition to how it is characterized by our resident Definitely Not A Russian Troll.

These points are nothing new, and have been said many times.

I highlighted what I found most interesting to the situation on hand: the head of the National Security and Defense's direct opinion on the "imminent Russian attack."

[The Brain]

Rush'n Attack was a cool game.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Ukraine being armed to the teeth and strongly anti-Russian does indeed not sound so bad.

It's been an explicit objective of the 2014 coup.

The south-western direction was the only gap not covered by the NATO bases in direct striking distance, if you look at the Russian/CIS borders. There's also south-eastern direction, but China happens to be there.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

I feel like there's been a little bit of a trend of people getting, in my view over their skis on this - so it's gone a little from the Ukrainian government has a right to align with the West to the West has a duty to let them join NATO/the EU and/or treat them as a member already. I don't think that follows.

Agreed.

[grumbler]

Ukraine being armed to the teeth and strongly anti-Russian does indeed not sound so bad.

It's been an explicit objective of the 2014 coup.

The south-western direction was the only gap not covered by the NATO bases in direct striking distance, if you look at the Russian/CIS borders. There's also south-eastern direction, but China happens to be there.

Not just of the 2014 impeachment, but of the 2019 election in which Zelenski won 73% of the votes.  The 2014 "coup" was Yanukovych fleeing the country to avoid participating in the unity government and then being impeached for it, and has nothing to do with the actions of the current president.  That is doubly true given that Poroshenko, the winner of the 2014 election, was the loser of the 2019 election.

[Tamas]

That is deeply concerning, we could be seeing the Finlandisation of Ukraine, which would be a very bad thing indeed.

It's not the worst thing that could happen when there's thousands of men with guns on the border.

And, as Peter Beinart pointed out, a lot of the old Cold Warriors - Kennan, Kissinger, Zbig - always thought Ukraine would need to be neutral. I think it's absolutely right to push on territorial integrity of Ukraine and the sovereignty of its government - but the reality is we wouldn't accept them into NATO or the EU because of the mutual defence obligations.

I feel like there's been a little bit of a trend of people getting, in my view over their skis on this - so it's gone a little from the Ukrainian government has a right to align with the West to the West has a duty to let them join NATO/the EU and/or treat them as a member already. I don't think that follows.

I am glad you are finding common ground with Gaijin but what is the discussion supposed to be about at this stage? "No we are never ever ever letting you in to the non-Russia club, but best of luck staying away from Russia!"?

[Sheilbh]

I am glad you are finding common ground with Gaijin but what is the discussion supposed to be about at this stage? "No we are never ever ever letting you in to the non-Russia club, but best of luck staying away from Russia!"?

No. I think we provide as much support as we can so Ukraine can defend itself from future threats like 2014 - and we help the government and people build their institutions (including cracking down on the money laundering industries in the UK, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Delaware etc that are built on people looting countries like Ukraine). We also maintain diplomatic pressure and sanctions on Russia over Crimea and the Donbass. And we lessen Europe's (including Ukraine's) dependence on Russian gas for political reasons but also just for decarbonisation reasons.

That we are just about managing to do that as NATO and the EU is impressive, but I think it exposes how hollow the idea is that we would really ever be willing to enter into a mutual defence pact with Ukraine. And there may be other agreements - association with the EU or NATO, participation in NATO weapons purchasing or training exercises etc. But I don't think there's anything to be gained from leading Ukraine on as we did in 2008 when we said that them and Georgia should join NATO.

And separately we - in particular the Europeans - really invest in making sure the current Eastern members of NATO and the EU feel secure. That, at least, should be a pre-condition before we look at Ukraine.