Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Brain]

FWIW I think it would be a horrible idea for Poland to do so.

[Tamas]

The idea of a NATO country going to war with Russia... I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the possible implications here. Feels like things are beginning to really gather momentum for a potential spin out of control.

I'm not saying Poland shouldn't do it... but... the potential repercussions are significant to say the least.

Yes. This is a terrible idea especially as it is unnecessary.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I could see America looking at Poland going to war with Russia (again, no reason to assume this is going to happen), and if Russia pushes back conventionally and inflicts some damage on Poland, I doubt America would agree that it's an Article V situation since Poland actually entered the war as an aggressor against Russia.

Tactical nukes though? Yeah I dunno that America would tolerate Russian use of nuclear weapons on a non-nuclear NATO country. That's the sort of decision that could very rapidly escalated into the end-game scenario.

[Jacob]

They would enter a nuclear armageddon in a situation where they don't have any treaty obligations to do so? I think public opinion can be made to accept continued existence.

Sure. But the real question is how confident would the Russians be that the US wouldn't retaliate? Because if they thing the US MIGHT, then it may be safer for them to go all in with a first strike rather than attack Poland and hope it doesn't escalate.

And even if they don't go all in with a first strike, in the aftermath they may get really jumpy and make a mistake. Or alternately, the US (or France or the UK) may misinterpret the Russian limited strike an retaliate and then we're off again.

[DGuller]

How about a second scenario:  Poland will be to Ukraine what Belarus is to Russia.  They will allow their territory to be used by Ukrainian forces, but they won't be involved themselves.  Obviously it's an act of aggression, but they're banking on Russia not having the balls to do anything about that other than complain.  What problems could there be with that, other than making people think that dominoes are falling towards an eventual WW3?

[OttoVonBismarck]

"What problem is there other than potentially leading to WW3."

[The Brain]

They would enter a nuclear armageddon in a situation where they don't have any treaty obligations to do so? I think public opinion can be made to accept continued existence.

Sure. But the real question is how confident would the Russians be that the US wouldn't retaliate? Because if they thing the US MIGHT, then it may be safer for them to go all in with a first strike rather than attack Poland and hope it doesn't escalate.

And even if they don't go all in with a first strike, in the aftermath they may get really jumpy and make a mistake. Or alternately, the US (or France or the UK) may misinterpret the Russian limited strike an retaliate and then we're off again.

I think that Poland going to war against Russia leads to a significant risk for a nuclear exchange (and would be an extremely stupid thing to do). I just don't think it's automatic.

[The Brain]

How about a second scenario:  Poland will be to Ukraine what Belarus is to Russia.  They will allow their territory to be used by Ukrainian forces, but they won't be involved themselves.  Obviously it's an act of aggression, but they're banking on Russia not having the balls to do anything about that other than complain.  What problems could there be with that, other than making people think that dominoes are falling towards an eventual WW3?

Your jinxing efforts are admirable, but quit while you're ahead.

[Jacob]

I think deniable support would be better. Ukrainian guerilla groups based safely in Poland and elsewhere between actions in Ukraine. But flying sorties is not something that could be denied as having official approval, I don't think.

Can someone lend Ukrainians an aircraft carrier instead?

[Jacob]

I think that Poland going to war against Russia leads to a significant risk for a nuclear exchange (and would be an extremely stupid thing to do). I just don't think it's automatic.

Agreed on the risk and it not being automatic.

[Jacob]

... that said, I don't mind the West having some slightly unhinged scenarios available as well in response to Putin's "you know we have nukes, right" and "be a shame if the international space station crashed and landed on the West somewhere" bullshit.

[Tamas]

I see this Poland thing was said by the Ukrainian military. I really fucking hope this is them misunderstanding/boasting about something that has not been promised.

[The Brain]

... that said, I don't mind the West having some slightly unhinged scenarios available as well in response to Putin's "you know we have nukes, right" and "be a shame if the international space station crashed and landed on the West somewhere" bullshit.

The space station crash stuff was so laughable. Doesn't impact this discussion, I just lol'd when I remembered it.

[Sheilbh]

Under any rational understanding of the laws of war that makes Poland a co-belligerent. FWIW it will also mean we wouldn't necessarily be obligated to help protect Poland if Russia slaps back--you can't assert Article V if you are the aggressor.

At the very least they need to make it very explicit that none of these missions will be flown from NATO bases or bases with NATO personnel. But I think it's probably worth pausing a little bit.

I think it's good that the EU has responded so well, but we have gone from fairly patchy sanctions to supplying flights on the back of a swell of emotional investment in Ukraine (and Zelensky - especially for the leaders). Probably worth just taking a little step back right now - it feels a little bit questionable/not coordinated with countries rushing to announce the next step they're taking (and the US apparently being caught on the hop by the speed of the EU response which has never happened before ).

... that said, I don't mind the West having some slightly unhinged scenarios available as well in response to Putin's "you know we have nukes, right" and "be a shame if the international space station crashed and landed on the West somewhere" bullshit.

The French have already reminded Putin that the Atlantic alliance is a "nuclear alliance" which is helpful

[Sheilbh]

I see this Poland thing was said by the Ukrainian military. I really fucking hope this is them misunderstanding/boasting about something that has not been promised.

This is another thing - I think Ukraine has very cleverly bounced a few items where they say "x is going to happen" based on calls with countries, then it doesn't immediately which produces pressure and it does happen. We should be supporting them but a little circumspect - as they're very good at the information war.