Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

I think the moment of truth for Europe on this is coming in the upcoming European Council. There's three key strands that I think are going to force decisions one way or another that are really important. It could be transformative beyond the rhetoric which has been, but I'm not sure how it'll go.

One is the impact of sanctions on EU countries is far more severe than on the US or UK or Canada - those countries have pushed on the big macro-economic sanctions (including for example the embargo of Russian oil), but it's easier for them to do it because they don't really feel the consequences in the way that EU countries will. Also as Nicholas Mulder (who's literally just written a book about sanctions that is now probably out of date ) points out sanctions are normally low cost, predictable and risk free. They didn't really impact our economy, they didn't have substantial spillover effects and they weren't against as a big a country/economy as Russia. So there is apparently a big argument within the EU over issuing common debt again to help support/mitigate the costs because they are not distributed equally - but I think this is important for the EU because it's found its strength as an economic actor, but bluntly the West is waging a type of economic war on Russia with these sanctions and within the EU there needs to be, I think, a little bit of an economic Article 5 in dealing with the costs.

The other bit of that is around further sanctions. Again there are divides within the EU but also within the West more generally on this. Some countries want to hold off, review the impact of the current sanctions and basically have some in reserve for any future escalation - which means chemical or biological weapons. Apparently other - I think the UK, Canada, the Baltics and Poland etc - are arguing for more sanctions now and their position is that what's happening in Mariupol (which may happen to other Ukrainian cities) is a new escalation that needs a new response.

And the third bit is around whether there's any support for EU common defence funding or common debt for defence. German rearmament is very good news - but it needs more than Germany, which means looking at fiscal rules but also the stuff that no European country really spends enough money on and relies on the US for which is, from what I've read, the logistical side. All of which sounds like it needs the EU to take a big step forward to match the rhetoric with resources.

I'm not sure how it'll go. It's breaking down as you'd expect with fiscal doves v hawks (south and east v north) - I hope Biden delivers a strong message about how necessary this is, which I think may help prod things along. My suspicion is that it might be like what I said German policy earlier that things don't move in the right direction for long enough to cause a reputational hit and possibly a hit to fiscal and debt stability (spreads are already increasing within the Eurozone again), but they will eventually u-turn and do the right thing at the next European Council or the one after but it'll be too late to get much credit and late enough that it will cost more.

So the Spanish Royal Opera is playing a Prokofiev opera this month, and the cast have started singing the Ukrainian anthem before the start of each show. I don't know whether to file this under silly or cool.

Yeah I think that's fine - I am sucker for those things though and it seems to have become a bit of a thing at classical concerts here to do the Ukrainian national anthem. It seems like another of those echoes with the 30s because there was definitely a "song for Spain" thing in the UK at concerts and films - which is a gesture and nothing more that's at once poignant and futile (at least this time we're sending weapons too).

[Tamas]

So after Putin's historical diatribe about Ukraine back in the day, it seems that now Medveded has published a similar one about Poland:

https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1505843869707116547

The Russian embassy in Warsaw was photographed with black smoke coming out of their backyard. Possibly destroying documents before departing?

See this is why Russia must be stopped in Ukraine. They haven't even finished Ukraine off and looking for the next target to pick a literal fight with.

[Razgovory]

CNN is reporting that

The US and NATO believe that Belarus could "soon" join Russia in its war against Ukraine, US and NATO officials tell CNN, and that the country is already taking steps to do so. 
It is increasingly "likely" that Belarus will enter the conflict, a NATO military official said on Monday. 

[Maladict]

The Russian embassy in Warsaw was photographed with black smoke coming out of their backyard. Possibly destroying documents before departing?

See this is why Russia must be stopped in Ukraine. They haven't even finished Ukraine off and looking for the next target to pick a literal fight with.

Poland is kicking them out of the embassy, destroying documents seems like fairly normal procedure.

[DGuller]

So after Putin's historical diatribe about Ukraine back in the day, it seems that now Medveded has published a similar one about Poland:

https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1505843869707116547

The Russian embassy in Warsaw was photographed with black smoke coming out of their backyard. Possibly destroying documents before departing?

See this is why Russia must be stopped in Ukraine. They haven't even finished Ukraine off and looking for the next target to pick a literal fight with.

Aren't Poles kicking out 45 Russian diplomats, or more likely "diplomats"?

[Josephus]

Ukraine newspapers cite Russian sources: Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu has disappeared from public view since March 11, reportedly with "heart problems."

[The Brain]

Ukraine newspapers cite Russian sources: Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu has disappeared from public view since March 11, reportedly with "heart problems."

Did his wife and his girlfriend run into each other at GUM?

[Duque de Bragança]

Ukraine newspapers cite Russian sources: Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu has disappeared from public view since March 11, reportedly with "heart problems."

War stress for sure.

[DGuller]

What's the nature of the heart problem?  Its inability to beat?

[alfred russel]

The Russian embassy in Warsaw was photographed with black smoke coming out of their backyard. Possibly destroying documents before departing?

See this is why Russia must be stopped in Ukraine. They haven't even finished Ukraine off and looking for the next target to pick a literal fight with.

Poland is kicking them out of the embassy, destroying documents seems like fairly normal procedure.

I've been to the Russian embassy in Warsaw! It was a very creepy experience.

[mongers]

The Russian embassy in Warsaw was photographed with black smoke coming out of their backyard. Possibly destroying documents before departing?

See this is why Russia must be stopped in Ukraine. They haven't even finished Ukraine off and looking for the next target to pick a literal fight with.

Poland is kicking them out of the embassy, destroying documents seems like fairly normal procedure.

I've been to the Russian embassy in Warsaw! It was a very creepy experience.

Don't beat yourself up AR, I'm sure they've recovered by now.

[alfred russel]

The Russian embassy in Warsaw was photographed with black smoke coming out of their backyard. Possibly destroying documents before departing?

See this is why Russia must be stopped in Ukraine. They haven't even finished Ukraine off and looking for the next target to pick a literal fight with.

Poland is kicking them out of the embassy, destroying documents seems like fairly normal procedure.

I've been to the Russian embassy in Warsaw! It was a very creepy experience.

Don't beat yourself up AR, I'm sure they've recovered by now.

Do you think they are burning the records of their meeting with me?

[Josquius]

The Russian embassy in Warsaw was photographed with black smoke coming out of their backyard. Possibly destroying documents before departing?

See this is why Russia must be stopped in Ukraine. They haven't even finished Ukraine off and looking for the next target to pick a literal fight with.

Poland is kicking them out of the embassy, destroying documents seems like fairly normal procedure.

I've been to the Russian embassy in Warsaw! It was a very creepy experience.

How so?

[The Brain]

The Russian embassy in Warsaw was photographed with black smoke coming out of their backyard. Possibly destroying documents before departing?

See this is why Russia must be stopped in Ukraine. They haven't even finished Ukraine off and looking for the next target to pick a literal fight with.

Poland is kicking them out of the embassy, destroying documents seems like fairly normal procedure.

I've been to the Russian embassy in Warsaw! It was a very creepy experience.

How so?

The eyes of the picture of Lenin follow you around the room.

[Duque de Bragança]

The Russian Embassy in Paris, with its typical concrete stalino-brezhnevian architecture style, is 200 metres away from the former NATO HQ (now an university).