Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Barrister]

And the flip side: Ukraine still has 'significant majority' of its military aircraft

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-still-has-significant-majority-its-military-aircraft-us-official-2022-03-04/

[Eddie Teach]

Now the gloves are coming off:

Canadian diner removes poutine from name because it sounds like Putin

They should remove it from the menu.

[Jacob]

They should remove it from the menu.

Ideally sanctions hurt Russia, not us. Removing a renamed poutine from the menu will only hurt ourselves.

[DGuller]

They should remove it from the menu.

Ideally sanctions hurt Russia, not us. Removing a renamed poutine from the menu will only hurt ourselves.

Keeping renamed poutine on the menu will probably hurt us more.  Some people wouldn't realize that it's a poutine and proceed to order it.

[HVC]

Simpsons aren't the only show that can tell the future.

https://youtu.be/teSXcJlpMl8


And hi BB! Very nice to see you back.

[Sheilbh]

Russia has been such a master of propaganda, how they've flubbed this one is amazing.

In part they were setting it up as protecting the breakaway republics.  Which was pretty lame, but whatever.  Also protecting Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine.  Also lame, but at least kind of comprehensible.

But the invasion (sorry, "Special military operation") starts and it's all about how Ukraine is not a real nation and it all belongs to mother russia.

It seems like the Russians have almost given up on the propaganda side of it now, and are just going for 100% denial and censorship now.

I think it's linked to where this comes from which is, I think, Putin in isolation with his history books and grievances. From everything I've read the decision making around this was in a very narrow circle.

So for the propaganda/information war side of things I feel like the first they probably realised it was definitely going to happen was Putin's speech - and that's the material they've got to work with.

Taking advantage of divisions is easy because it's reactive and they're already there - they're tapping into something in the wider discourse. While here they've needed to invent a genocide and Ukraine's not a real country etc in about a week.

As an aside, Malthus, DG, or anyone else - how exactly are Ukrainians perceived in Russia proper.  I know there's a long-standing view in Russian history that Ukraine is not a real nation, that it's "little Russia" - but is there also a sense that Ukrainians are somehow 'lesser' than true Russians?  I heard something like that on a podcast with Rachel Vindman - Lt Col Vindman's wife.  She is not Ukrainian but spent several years in Ukraine and Russia (and of course her husband is Ukrainian born) and said there was prejudice against Ukrainians, but that wasn't something I'd heard before.

My understanding is that they're sort of viewed as country bumpkins. The stereotype of a Ukrainian is a rather slow, chubby, backwards farmer eating salo. It sounded a bit like stereotypes about the West Country or East Anglia in England (maybe minus the in-breeding). But I could be wrong.

It's one of the remaining sources of cash for both Ukraine, and for Russia.

I have no idea how Europe is going to pay Russia for the gas though, even though gas is exempted from the general Russia sanctions.

My understanding - because I did a little digging - is that the banks for those payments haven't been sanctioned or removed from SWIFT so payments can still be made quickly.

But it is crazy to have all these sanctions and economic isolation, plus transfers of up to $700 million - and Russia benefits from the higher cost too.

I wonder if the US had some intelligence they only shared non-publicly that might have tipped the scales.

Alternatively, I feel once someone takes a decisive way and makes it easier for everyone to fall in, it can quickly become an avalanche. Similar to "bystander syndrome" - the more people watch, the less likely everyone is to help. But if someone leads on, more people pitch in.

I think in part it was emotion - I think Zelensky on a call in the European Council was probably the first person in thosse rooms who could legitimately say his people were dying for European values. That Ukraine was/is the front-line of European values. And then he signed it off that he might not see them again. I imagine that had a huge impact on the leaders in the room.

I think there was probably an avalanche - as celed says that the EU went from carve-outs for diamonds to Germany re-arming and Europe apparently having a strategic jet fighter reserve was extraordinary But I think Poland, the Netherlands, the Baltics and the Czechs were already sending arms so I'm not sure how much of an impact that had but I think once new countries came out with shipments there was an avalanche.

I also think there is just a human element and the leaders are also human. I think we all went through some sort of shock at the first day of realising the type of war this clearly was. The EU is arguably the pinnacle of Europe running from and tring to create a world for itself that exercises and moves beyond history - and you then suddenly had this conflict that seemed out of time: tanks crossing borders etc. I imagine it took some time even for leaders for that to sink in - especially given that some countries were later than other on expecting when a Russian invasion might happen so I imagine there were some in that room who until it happened genuinely believed it wouldn't.

[mongers]

Reports of notable casualties amongst the Russian invasion forces including a deputy army commander:

Russian commanders die as army falters
Larisa Brown
Saturday March 05 2022, 12.01am, The Times

Three Russian army commanders have been killed after moving towards the front line in an apparent attempt to restore momentum among junior ranks, western officials believe.

The death of Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky, a Spetsnaz or special forces commander and deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army, was disclosed on Thursday. He is thought to be the highest-ranking member of the force to be killed.

Western officials believe that a divisional commander and a regimental commander have also been killed. An official said: "My assessment would be that those commanders have been killed because they've had to go further and closer to the front, rather than them being in the rear of operations."

The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that he

[Valmy]

Hey all - Valmy reached out to me on FB wanted to know my thoughts.

I really missed my northern doppleganger

Glad to hear your thoughts.

[Valmy]

Reports of notable casualties amongst the Russian invasion forces including a deputy army commander:

Russian commanders die as army falters
Larisa Brown
Saturday March 05 2022, 12.01am, The Times

Three Russian army commanders have been killed after moving towards the front line in an apparent attempt to restore momentum among junior ranks, western officials believe.

The death of Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky, a Spetsnaz or special forces commander and deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army, was disclosed on Thursday. He is thought to be the highest-ranking member of the force to be killed.

Western officials believe that a divisional commander and a regimental commander have also been killed. An official said: "My assessment would be that those commanders have been killed because they've had to go further and closer to the front, rather than them being in the rear of operations."

The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that he

According to this thread being a Russian general is a very dangerous enterprise. 

I hope through all of this we are working to give Putin some kind of face saving way out. We don't want to back him into a corner, especially if the war turns against Russia.

[Valmy]

In my experience most people that believe propaganda want to believe whatever it is the propaganda is selling.

I agree.  In this particular case, I also think that people in the West do not appreciate how much of a chip on the shoulder Russians have, and how utterly belligerent they are on a personal level (again, typically, obviously there are exceptions). 

I remember back to my World of Tanks days, when I would play on a beta server that had US, EU, and RU players all together (normally they're not), and the vitriol of the Russian players towards non-Russian players was palpable.  A lot of it was expressed in Russian to each other, so they didn't think that someone with a "US" tag would be able to understand it.  I know a lot of people would write it off as typical shit-talking by kids playing multiplayer games, but it really wasn't typical, and it was all one-way.  US and EU players really didn't disdain RU players just because they were RU players.  That was almost 10 years ago, I think, so definitely before Putin escalated his conflict with the West.

That kind of reminds of stories from people who lived in the USSR, that the worst part was not the state or the economy but the fact you were surrounded by brainwashed fanatics who just accepted all Soviet propaganda on faith and were constantly looking at you to make sure you were being a good comrad.

[Jacob]

That kind of reminds of stories from people who lived in the USSR, that the worst part was not the state or the economy but the fact you were surrounded by brainwashed fanatics who just accepted all Soviet propaganda on faith and were constantly looking at you to make sure you were being a good comrad.

Same thing with China

[Legbiter]

That's the one lever they can pull to get back at the EU and they haven't. Dependence goes both ways.

Yeah seems to me the Ukrainians will have both means and motive to make sure these pipelines go kaboom once they feel the end is near. They're after all directly funding the slaughter. Europe might have to go cold turkey on Russian gas.

[Sheilbh]

NEXTA
@nexta_tv
According to "Kommersant", most #Russian airlines received notification from #European lessors about the termination of reinsurance contracts on the night of March 8. Aviators interpret this as an inability to perform flights.

Relatedly the CEOs of several Russian airlines, including Aeroflot have stepped down.

[DGuller]

Reinsurance. 

[Legbiter]

NEXTA
@nexta_tv
According to "Kommersant", most #Russian airlines received notification from #European lessors about the termination of reinsurance contracts on the night of March 8. Aviators interpret this as an inability to perform flights.

Relatedly the CEOs of several Russian airlines, including Aeroflot have stepped down.

Not just no insurance, no spare parts for their planes either. No 3rd party servicing outside of Russia, that loophole was specifically closed by Airbus and Boeing. It's game over for Russian airlines in 2-3 weeks. Same goes for Western imported spare parts for all their industries, especially from Germany. And they'll not be able to switch to sole-buyer Chinese vassal status fast enough before their entire economy collapses, that'll take years and years.