Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Minsky Moment]

Still need bullets to shoot the dregs. Can Europe supply them on their own? And by can I mean are they willing to.

Procuring shells and rockets for high-end NATO equipment is one thing, small arms ammo is another. I don't think there is an issue procuring the latter.

[Solmyr]

About Putin's death - I've heard it said that if Putin were to die, the top Russian leadership would announce it immediately. That's because nobody actually wants to continue this mess that Putin started, so if he should die everyone would immediately be racing to distance themselves from him and to try to position themselves as a potential negotiation partner.

[Tamas]

About Putin's death - I've heard it said that if Putin were to die, the top Russian leadership would announce it immediately. That's because nobody actually wants to continue this mess that Putin started, so if he should die everyone would immediately be racing to distance themselves from him and to try to position themselves as a potential negotiation partner.

The Russian youtuber I follow had this take on this just a couple of hours ago:

Remember, I told you that no one really knew at the time when the rumors appeared. What would reveal the truth in the upcoming days is unusual actions by Russia's political actors.
I've been watching closely. Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia's Security Council, has appeared as the person in question.

At first in the beginning of November he made a public appearance (that doesn't happen often) and make a speech talking of Vladimir Putin in the past tense. Putin was, Putin did, Putin made etc. It was strange but not a reliable proof that Putin died. Could have been an honest mistake.

But something much stranger happened two days ago. Patrushev again (!) made a public appearance meeting the Russian governors (!!) on November 16th.

Now for how long has Patrushev been the Secretary of the Security Counsel? 15 years, since 2008. How many times he publicly appeared televised in the last 15 years? Not too many. He he a gray cardinal hiding in the shadows. And all of a sudden he starts appearing publicly. Hmm....

What's even stranger is the topic of the meeting with the governors. Patrushev ordered the governors to prepare for the transition to a "mobilization economy" or, in simple language, the war economy.
I quote Patrushev: "It is necessary to "ensure the formation of mobilization plans of the economy of the subjects of the Russian Federation and municipalities. The governors and responsible federal officials are to "keep under personal control" the fulfillment of this task along with ensuring the safety of critical facilities, including their protection from drone attacks."

Now wait a second! Since when the secretary of the Security Council orders something to the governors? And such a big decision as the switching provinces' economies from normal mode to war mode? Since when a small man secretary orders as if he was the president? Hmm...

[Solmyr]

Well, there's supposed to be a joint direct line/press conference held by Putin on December 19th. We'll see how he looks then.

[crazy canuck]

Jacob and Sheilbh, thanks for your explanations.  But according to the data Sheilbh posted the US accounts for a little under 50% of the total support currently supporting the Ukrainians.

If a pro Russian US president is elected, will Europe double its support to compensate.  And what about the pressure the US might exert on Europe under Trump?

[OttoVonBismarck]

I don't imagine a non-Democrat President is going to pressure Europe not to help Ukraine.

I don't really think the typical Republican, or Trump, is "Pro-Russian." Trump was fawning of both Putin and Xi, but his actions towards both Russia and China were significantly more adversarial than any recent President that preceded him--and on Russia only surpassed by Biden.

The pro-Russian narrative in the GOP represents a small % of the actual elected officials of the GOP. And most of it is "thin", typically tied to various conspiracies and anti-Democrat thinking, as opposed to being any genuine allegiance to the Russians.

The isolationist position is much more significant in the GOP, and appears to be growing over time--so there is a valid question of what will Europe's capacity to backfill be, but they aren't going to have an American President stopping them or trying to stop them from helping Ukraine.

[Jacob]

Jacob and Sheilbh, thanks for your explanations.  But according to the data Sheilbh posted the US accounts for a little under 50% of the total support currently supporting the Ukrainians.

If a pro Russian US president is elected, will Europe double its support to compensate.  And what about the pressure the US might exert on Europe under Trump?

I expect Europe will increase support, but not nearly enough to substitute for a hypothetical American halt to their support. No doubt, a Trump presidency will negatively impact Ukraine's ability to fight.

A compelete stop to American support would significantly degrade Ukraine's ability to fight, I expect. However, don't think it would destroy their ability to fight, much less their will to fight.

Obviously the potential for Russian gains - and even victory - goes up if Trump walks away from Ukraine - whether partially or completely. But while American support is super important, the most critical factors are Ukraine's will and ability to fight.

[Sheilbh]

I agree with all of that.

I'd also add on the Trump exerting pressure on Europe that I don't think it would matter. I think in the same way as people underestimate Europe's military support for Ukraine, I think they underestimate how important this has become for the EU in particular. I think in both cases there's a degree of opinions in early 2022 not quite being updated.

And when the EU collectively decides something is very important it is pretty much an immovable object. We saw that with Brexit, but also the Eurozone crisis. European policymakers would not be shifted by the international organisations, pressure from the Obama administration or the markets until Draghi gave his "whatever it takes" speech. - which basically said nothing was going to bring down Europe's political commitment to the Euro and the ECB would not let that pass Ukraine is now an accession candidate to join the EU and the acquis are being worked on. It is core to the EU's interests and now a part of internal EU politics.

The other side is what would Trump threaten them with? Trade wars we've already had. But I think European policymakers would take America turning on Ukraine as an effective end to America's support for Europe's security - and I think that's how Russia would interpret it too. So what's the leverage?

Europe needs to do more especially on ramping up manufacturing but it is the primary supporter of Ukraine financially, militarily, with humanitarian aid and it is starting the process of integrating Ukraine into the EU core. Outside the EU though working with it on this, the UK is far less important but both the government and Labour have committed to at least matching the level of support from 2022 to 2023 and now to 2024 - though obviously Britain is more exposed to American pressure. But I don't see any reason to think Europe would follow Trump, or step back or (particularly the EU) be pressured by him.

[Josquius]

Europe can't even deliver the support it has promised now...

[Jacob]

Yeah - Putin's big win from Trump abandoning Ukraine is not going to be that he then gets to sweep in and conquer Ukraine in short order. Rather it's going to be the (potentially irreparable) cracks it'll create in NATO.

[Admiral Yi]

Trump was fawning of both Putin and Xi, but his actions towards both Russia and China were significantly more adversarial than any recent President that preceded him--and on Russia only surpassed by Biden.

I don't remember anything Trump did that was adversarial to Russia.  I do remember the GOP controlled Senate passing anti-Russian legislation (I think it was a renewal of the Magnitsky Act) against what was described at the time as the wishes of the White House.

I've also heard him several times since leaving office peddling weirdo anti Ukrainian conspiracies about hacked servers and the like.

edit: against the wishes

[OttoVonBismarck]

Trump was fawning of both Putin and Xi, but his actions towards both Russia and China were significantly more adversarial than any recent President that preceded him--and on Russia only surpassed by Biden.

I don't remember anything Trump did that was adversarial to Russia.  I do remember the GOP controlled Senate passing anti-Russian legislation (I think it was a renewal of the Magnitsky Act) against what was described at the time as the wishes of the White House.

I've also heard him several times since leaving office peddling weirdo anti Ukrainian conspiracies about hacked servers and the like.

Your memory may need some refreshing.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah - Putin's big win from Trump abandoning Ukraine is not going to be that he then gets to sweep in and conquer Ukraine in short order. Rather it's going to be the (potentially irreparable) cracks it'll create in NATO.

Agreed, and to the question Sheilbh posed as to what leverage a Trump administration might have, that is it - the unknown is the degree to which Europe would be willing to tell the Americans to take a walk. And I suppose the same would need to be said to Orban's Hungary.

Would France and Germany be willing to oversee the breakup of NATO and to some extent the EU over Ukraine.  Perhaps.  But I think that is something no one can really know.  Much depends on who is in power in those countries at the time. 

I suppose all of that is to say, Trump better not win.

[Tamas]

Guys Trump is saying stuff like prime minister of Turkey Viktor Orbán just demanded that President Obama should resign and hand over to him. He makes Biden look young and sharp, he is not going to win.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Famous last words, Tamas. But let's hope they're true.

As for the eu... the western countries would drop the Ukrainians faster than you can say 'they would drop the Ukrainians'. There's not enough spine, no sense of real danger and there are elections where pro-russia parties might do rather well in several countries