Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Zanza]

Schröder's behavior after leaving office has to be among the least reputable of any major European leader in the 21st century. He's a disgrace.

His behavior in office was a disgrace as well. How much of his support for transitioning Germany away from nuclear energy can be attributed to his being bought and paid for by Russia?

That's completely unrelated.
First, Germany barely uses gas for electricity production, but rather for heating and industrial processes. Nuclear power cannot directly substitute here. Second, that his party and his Green coalition partner wanted to end nuclear power in Germany goes back to the late 1980s/mid-1980s. He just happened to be the first left chancellor and his government implemented something that was long consensus on the left in Germany. He was not a driver either, the Greens complained back then that he was slowing the process down.

He might be an asshole, but mainly after his time in office. In hindsight, Merkels actions on the last sixteen years regarding energy and Russia must be seen more critical than Schröders.

[Syt]

Russia is only using a small part of their army and air force. It's a total war for Ukraine, it's not yet a total war for Russia. The Russians are fighting with one hand behind their back so far, if it came down to stopping a serious counter-offensive they would start fighting according to their artillery-centric doctrine and stop dead any Ukrainian attack.

Air force yes, but Syt said 75% of Russian ground troops are in Ukraine.  That jibes with what I had read earlier, that 60% of the Russian military was deployed on the border before the invasion.

I don't think it was "all troops" but rather 75% of the troops assembled for the invasion. They would have additional troops elsewhere.

[Habbaku]

Schröder's behavior after leaving office has to be among the least reputable of any major European leader in the 21st century. He's a disgrace.

His behavior in office was a disgrace as well. How much of his support for transitioning Germany away from nuclear energy can be attributed to his being bought and paid for by Russia?

That's completely unrelated.
First, Germany barely uses gas for electricity production, but rather for heating

I don't understand this part. Nuclear power can absolutely be used to generate electricity for electric heat.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlI9O59EJrI&ab_channel=DanzigHDMapper

the inevitable mappers

[Grey Fox]

Schröder's behavior after leaving office has to be among the least reputable of any major European leader in the 21st century. He's a disgrace.

His behavior in office was a disgrace as well. How much of his support for transitioning Germany away from nuclear energy can be attributed to his being bought and paid for by Russia?

That's completely unrelated.
First, Germany barely uses gas for electricity production, but rather for heating and industrial processes. Nuclear power cannot directly substitute here. Second, that his party and his Green coalition partner wanted to end nuclear power in Germany goes back to the late 1980s/mid-1980s. He just happened to be the first left chancellor and his government implemented something that was long consensus on the left in Germany. He was not a driver either, the Greens complained back then that he was slowing the process down.

He might be an asshole, but mainly after his time in office. In hindsight, Merkels actions on the last sixteen years regarding energy and Russia must be seen more critical than Schröders.

You can use electricity for heating generation too.

[Threviel]

Russia is only using a small part of their army and air force. It's a total war for Ukraine, it's not yet a total war for Russia. The Russians are fighting with one hand behind their back so far, if it came down to stopping a serious counter-offensive they would start fighting according to their artillery-centric doctrine and stop dead any Ukrainian attack.

Air force yes, but Syt said 75% of Russian ground troops are in Ukraine.  That jibes with what I had read earlier, that 60% of the Russian military was deployed on the border before the invasion.

I can't say for certain how much of Russias army is deployed, but they have for example something like 3000 active tanks and another 10000 in reserve, so far they've lost a few hundred at the very most.

Likewise with the rest of their stuff, they have a lot and even if a lot is deployed they will have huge reserves. No doubt they can crush Ukraine militarily even with western support. The question is if they can handle it economically and politically. I doubt the will is there to go to full WW2 mode.

[Zanza]

You have to wonder how tight control of the occupied territory is. There were numerous reports that the advancing Russian troops left nests of regular Ukrainian troops in their wake, which now threaten supply lines.

Other than that  it does look like Russia makes significant progress, e.g. encircling Mariopol.

[Zanza]

I don't understand this part. Nuclear power can absolutely be used to generate electricity for electric heat.

Most German houses do not have electric heating though, but gas or even oil heaters. Electric heating with a heat pumps necessitates modern insulation, which is not that widespread. Other means of electric heating are barely used in Germany as far as I can tell. Probably too expensive or inefficient

[Jacob]

I can't say for certain how much of Russias army is deployed, but they have for example something like 3000 active tanks and another 10000 in reserve, so far they've lost a few hundred at the very most.

Likewise with the rest of their stuff, they have a lot and even if a lot is deployed they will have huge reserves. No doubt they can crush Ukraine militarily even with western support. The question is if they can handle it economically and politically. I doubt the will is there to go to full WW2 mode.

So if they've lost 200 in a week and that rate continues, they'll be completely out of tanks - including reserves - in 65 weeks. So a little over a year.

Obviously one can't assume a steady rate, but losing a "a few hundred" tanks is not a glorious start in the first week.

[Jacob]

[Jacob]

Article in DW saying the Eastern Ukrainian forces have about 5 days of supply left for fighting, and that there are real risks involved in getting EU/US supply to the right places. It also seems to claim that Russia does, at this point, control Ukrainian airspace - at least enough to significantly complicate the logistics effort.

https://www.dw.com/en/western-arms-supplies-for-ukraine-how-are-they-getting-there/a-60959864

[DGuller]

It seems to me an unfortunate inevitability that in the long run, Ukraine militarily would not be able to resist Russia, and the only way to victory is a collapse of a Russian desire to fight.  Everyone remembers the Finnish resistance during the Winter War, but few remember that Finland was on the ropes by the end of the war and almost lost its ability to defend itself, and only the international situation forced Stalin to settle for a moderate Finnish loss.

[Jacob]

It seems to me an unfortunate inevitability that in the long run, Ukraine militarily would not be able to resist Russia, and the only way to victory is a collapse of a Russian desire to fight.  Everyone remembers the Finnish resistance during the Winter War, but few remember that Finland was on the ropes by the end of the war and almost lost its ability to defend itself, and only the international situation forced Stalin to settle for a moderate Finnish loss.

Yeah, I think Ukrainian victory conditions are hanging on for as long as possible, continually bleeding Russia treasury and blood, while Russian economic collapse forces Putin to back down (or be replaced). A military victory seems highly unlikely. And think realistically we're looking at a timeline of years and we're only five days in.

[Berkut]

It seems to me an unfortunate inevitability that in the long run, Ukraine militarily would not be able to resist Russia, and the only way to victory is a collapse of a Russian desire to fight.  Everyone remembers the Finnish resistance during the Winter War, but few remember that Finland was on the ropes by the end of the war and almost lost its ability to defend itself, and only the international situation forced Stalin to settle for a moderate Finnish loss.

The numbers were radically different there though - the Russians outnumbered the Finns by a huge margin.

The Russians don't actually outnumber the Ukrainians by much in actual manpower. Their advantage is almost entirely in equipment and airpower.

[Sheilbh]

Old school - BBC Ukrainian Service adding new shortwave frequencies to broadcast into Ukraine. And probably essential given this mesage from Ukraine's Defence Minister:

Oleksii Reznikov
@oleksiireznikov
Russia is preparing to launch an info&psycho operation.Its goal is to break the resistance of Ukrain'es ppl&army. At 1st,they can arrange a breakdown of connection.After-the spread of massive FAKE messages that Ukraine's country leadership has agreed to give up.We're in Kyiv!No surrender!Only victory!

Separately, according to Zug canton, Nord Stream 2 has filed for bankruptcy.