Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Eddie Teach]

active harm

Don't be so fragile.

[Threviel]

I've been saying that. This'll be a long war and hopefully there are Ukrainians training on heavier western systems.

With that said the Ukrainians have a lot of heavy stuff, Ukraine is not a minor league player when it comes to hardware. They have lots of armour and lots of artillery. Since their artillery is of Soviet origin I imagine it'll be difficult to just jack in a western radar or targeting system.

I would guess, with data from the department of stuffs pulled from my ass, that Ukraine has enough heavy stuff to last about a year so. By that time we need to have our production lines running three-shift to supply them heavier stuff. Possibly much sooner. And by then they need to have the logistics of it up and running, mechanics trained on western stuff and so on.

[Admiral Yi]

How about some Patriots? How about some cutting edge anti-artillery hardware? Drones.

I figure Patriots would take too long to train.

There was anti-artillery radar in that list I linked.  They're also sending these these "tactical drones" that you fly into a tank and it blows up.  Cute little suicide drones.

[celedhring]

Yeah, I don't think it's feasible to train the UA in anything more complex than man-portable equipment, and integrate it in its forces. Hence the drive to find Warsaw Pact gear for them.

[Admiral Yi]

Can't get used to UA.

[Berkut]

Yeah, I don't think it's feasible to train the UA in anything more complex than man-portable equipment, and integrate it in its forces. Hence the drive to find Warsaw Pact gear for them.

That assumes that this will be over one way or another in the next X weeks.

[The Brain]

Makes sense to prepare for a long war. "Worst" case is that the war ends before you have trained them, but by starting training you have showed Russia that you're in for the duration.

[Syt]

Chinese state media reporting Russians killing civilians (granted, this is their outlet intended for Western audiences).

https://twitter.com/cgtnamerica/status/1504510377446543362?s=20&t=g7U7JO_1V7QcvX4U2ymHug

CGTN America
@cgtnamerica
China state-affiliated media

Russian troops have killed at least 10 civilians standing in line for bread in Chernihiv, a city in northern Ukraine, according to a Ukrainian public broadcaster and the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv.

Video: 10 civilians killed standing in line for bread says Ukrainian TV
Russian troops have killed at least 10 civilians standing in line for bread in Chernihiv, a city in northern Ukraine, according to a Ukrainian public broadcaster. Russia denies targeting civilians.

[The Brain]

Can't get used to UA.

OK Vladimir.

[Jacob]

This is purely based on my project management and PC strategy game experience, rather than anything to do with real war fighting, but...

How long will it take to train up Ukrainian forces on NATO equipment and more beefy equipment? Like, can you get a group up and running in, say, a year?

Because, yes, we're hoping that this wraps up soon (and positively). But if it doesn't, creating a timeline where "well in six months the Ukrainian army will be able to field [scary asset], and in 12 months they'll be able to deploy [even scarier asset]" would be prudent - and would also build a sense of inevitably increasing pressure against Russia that time is not on their side.

I mean, there are probably practical concerns (where is the training going to take place, f. ex.) but IMO we should consider scenarios where the war does not end in the short term, and this should be part of it.

[Jacob]

Makes sense to prepare for a long war. "Worst" case is that the war ends before you have trained them, but by starting training you have showed Russia that you're in for the duration.

Yes, exactly.

[celedhring]

It's not just the training, the Ukrainian Army has to build a logistics pipeline for any kind of new complex equipment you add. And also integrate it in their tactics.

I'm not against the idea - hell, we need to make sure Russia doesn't think they can just walk away and try next time after un-sucking its army, just that I wouldn't expect any new equipment to make much of a difference in the short term.

[Jacob]

Chinese state media reporting Russians killing civilians (granted, this is their outlet intended for Western audiences).

https://twitter.com/cgtnamerica/status/1504510377446543362?s=20&t=g7U7JO_1V7QcvX4U2ymHug

CGTN America
@cgtnamerica
China state-affiliated media

Russian troops have killed at least 10 civilians standing in line for bread in Chernihiv, a city in northern Ukraine, according to a Ukrainian public broadcaster and the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv.

Video: 10 civilians killed standing in line for bread says Ukrainian TV
Russian troops have killed at least 10 civilians standing in line for bread in Chernihiv, a city in northern Ukraine, according to a Ukrainian public broadcaster. Russia denies targeting civilians.

That is interesting. I wonder how much that's reflected in more inward facing Chinese language media.

[Jacob]

It's not just the training, the Ukrainian Army has to build a logistics pipeline for any kind of new complex equipment you add. And also integrate it in their tactics.

I'm not against the idea - hell, we need to make sure Russia doesn't think they can just walk away and try next time after un-sucking its army, just that I wouldn't expect any new equipment to make much of a difference in the short term.

Yeah for sure. I don't have a good sense of what sort of actions would beef up Ukrainian capabilities notably a year or two down the road, but I think we should consider them and start taking them now where feasible.

[The Brain]

This is purely based on my project management and PC strategy game experience, rather than anything to do with real war fighting, but...

How long will it take to train up Ukrainian forces on NATO equipment and more beefy equipment? Like, can you get a group up and running in, say, a year?

Because, yes, we're hoping that this wraps up soon (and positively). But if it doesn't, creating a timeline where "well in six months the Ukrainian army will be able to field [scary asset], and in 12 months they'll be able to deploy [even scarier asset]" would be prudent - and would also build a sense of inevitably increasing pressure against Russia that time is not on their side.

I mean, there are probably practical concerns (where is the training going to take place, f. ex.) but IMO we should consider scenarios where the war does not end in the short term, and this should be part of it.

FWIW Sweden took delivery of the physical parts of Patriot systems in early fall last year, and they were operational in December. Granted Swedes had been involved earlier in the process, but I'd be surprised if you can't get units up and running in a few months in wartime.

Among the Western volunteers there may also be people with experience of various NATO weapon systems. This is a resource.