Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Duque de Bragança]

It's surprising that the suspects lost all their fingernails during the attack.

Yeah, I was expecting they would have lost more than that. 

[Duque de Bragança]

рязанский сахар

 

[Josquius]

Nepali and Indians in the Russian army isn't an unknown story. But this podcast puts an interesting light on it.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2024/mar/19/why-are-indian-and-nepali-men-ending-up-on-the-frontline-in-ukraine-podcast

The TLDR is they're been conned.

Hope the Indian government takes notice.

[Syt]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-ambassador-ignores-summons-polish-ministry-says-spokesperson-2024-03-25/

Russian envoy ignores summons over missile that Poland says entered its airspace

WARSAW, March 25 (Reuters) - The Russian ambassador to Poland ignored a summons to appear at the country's foreign ministry on Monday after Warsaw said a missile launched at targets in western Ukraine violated its airspace.

Poland's military said its defence radar systems recorded the missile entering the country's airspace for 39 seconds on Sunday, encroaching 2 km (1.24 miles) into Polish territory before returning into Ukraine.

"The ambassador of the Russian Federation ... did not attend the foreign ministry today to explain the incident," foreign ministry spokesperson Pawel Wronski told reporters.

Poland will decide on the next steps in coming days as it cannot ignore such "a sign of contempt", Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz told Polsat News television on Monday.

"These must be agreed decisions, because this is the response of the entire Polish state," Kosiniak-Kamysz said.

The Russian embassy in Warsaw confirmed Sergey Andreev had been summoned to the ministry on Monday but did not attend.

"The ambassador asked whether the Polish side was ready to provide evidence for its claims," it said, referencing what it described as a "similar situation" in December 2023. "Since the replies of our Polish colleagues did not
indicate that such evidence would be provided this time, the ambassador decided that a discussion on this topic would be pointless and rejected the invitation to the meeting."

[Josquius]

Consequences if Poland announces it'll shoot down any missiles near its territory? Maybe it could get permission from Ukraine about this and promise it goes for Ukrainian missiles too?
It certainly seems a valid and above board action.

[Syt]

https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000213247/wiener-polizisten-kamen-mit-geschenks228cken-aus-russischer-botschaft

English translation, courtesy of reddit:

Austrian policemen seen leaving the Russian embassy in Vienna with gift bags

Viennese police officers are no longer to accept gifts from Russia in future. This was announced to APA by a spokesperson for the Vienna Provincial Police Directorate in response to an enquiry after several police officers were seen leaving the Russian embassy with gift bags. This was not a misdemeanour, but left an undesirable impression, the spokesperson said. Such gifts should therefore be refused in a friendly but firm manner.

The officers were deployed on the occasion of the Russian presidential election on 17 March to ensure security around the voting in the embassy. After the last voter had left the embassy shortly after 10 pm, at least six employees from the State Security and Extremism Office (LSE) and the police followed with a service dog. At least three of them were carrying gift bags with the Russian coat of arms. They did not want to say on the spot whether it was customary to accept gifts at the Russian embassy.

The operation took place after Austria had declared two Russian diplomats to be undesirable persons. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had stated on this occasion that bilateral relations between Vienna and Moscow could not get any worse. Official Russia is apparently satisfied with the work of the Austrian police. Ambassador Dmitry Lyubinsky praised the cooperation with the Interior Ministry in two of three video messages on election Sunday.

Uniformed police officers and members of the LSE in civilian clothes were not only on duty outside the building, but were also frequently in and out of the embassy. One police officer justified this with the possibility of using the toilet in the building. Apparently, the police officers were also fed and given gifts by the Russians.

The Vienna Provincial Police Directorate confirmed the receipt of gifts in response to an APA enquiry. "At the end of the operation, officers received paper bags containing items of low value," a spokesperson explained. Although this is not a misdemeanour under the Civil Service Act, it leaves an undesirable impression that does not do justice to the professional approach of the officers on the ground. The officers had been sensitised in this regard and instructed to refuse. The latter is in line with internal recommendations: "Employees are always on the 'safe side' when a gift is politely but firmly declined," according to the Ministry of the Interior's official code of conduct.

The Vienna police spokesperson justified the temporary entry into the building by stating that the officers had been on site on 17 March to protect the diplomatic facility, among other things, and that contact had been made with employees of the embassy. He did not answer the APA's question about the specific contents of the bags. The spokesperson for the Russian embassy also declined to comment.

In the summer of 2022, the police were criticised after experts from an association close to the Russian embassy were allowed to give a lecture on Ukrainian nationalism at a training event organised by the Vienna police, at which time the Ukrainian ambassador in Vienna, Vasyl Chymynez, voiced fierce criticism. Interior Minister Gerhard Karner (ÖVP) subsequently declared that there were no grounds for disciplinary action, but announced "a higher degree of sensitivity and political awareness" in the selection of lecturers in the future.

I assume the summary of the internal discussion was something along the lines of, "Next time, make sure to carry those gifts in neutral bags or your backpacks, you morons."

[Zoupa]

That's not what I've heard. The Ukrainians understand exactly what parts of the refinery to target - it looks like pin prick attacks on such a big facility but they're hitting very particular parts that are vital to operations and need lengthy repairs using parts not available domestically.

Perhaps . . .
But over the past year Russia cut 1 million barrels per the OPEC+ cuts.  You'd have to do an awful lot of permanent damage before the excess capacity was breached.

Exclusive: Russia increases gasoline imports from Belarus as domestic supplies shrink
By Reuters
March 27, 20249:25 AM PDT

Russia has increased gasoline imports from neighbouring Belarus in March to tackle the risk of shortages in its domestic market because of unscheduled repairs at Russian refineries after drone attacks, four industry and trade sources said on Wednesday.
Usually Russia is a net exporter of fuel and a supplier to international markets, but the disruption of Russian refining has forced oil companies to import.
Already Russia banned gasoline exports from March 1 to try to secure enough fuel for its domestic market after repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries since the start of the year.
Russia normally imports very little fuel from Belarus, although it turned to it last August-to-October, when it faced fuel shortages that led to a rapid rise in gasoline prices and prompted another oil product export ban.
This year, Russia has again increased gasoline imports from Belarus, and in the first half of March they reached almost 3,000 metric tons, Reuters sources familiar with the statistics said.
In February, Russia imported 590 tons, while in January, there were no shipments from Belarus.
Two industry sources, who requested anonymity because they were not authorised to speak publicly, said discussions on further imports were taking place between governments and oil companies.
One of them said the talks were difficult as Belarus prioritises exports of its fuel to international markets.
How much will be required by Russia will depend on the timing of refinery repairs, another of the sources said.
Russian oil companies can increase oil supplies to Belarusian refineries in return for extra petroleum products for supply to Russia, the industry sources said.
Belarus generally exports its oil products via Russian Baltic ports to international markets under long-term transit agreements between the states.
Belarus has two oil refineries - the Naftan oil refinery in Novopolotsk and the Mozyr oil refinery.
Each has a capacity of 12 million tons per year (some 240,000 barrels per day), but they typically run at lower capacity, each refining about 9 million tons per year (some 180,000 barrels per day).
It is unclear how much Belarus can increase production and industry sources have said there are technical bottlenecks.
Russia's Energy ministry and Belarus's state oil company Belneftekhim, which operates both of the republic's refineries, did not answer requests for comment.
Neither did Russia's Rosneft, Lukoil, Tatneft and Gazpromneft, all major oil suppliers to Belarus and operators of gas stations in the republic.
The refineries in Belarus use mostly Russian oil as a feedstock, while Russian oil companies, which have Belarusian subsidiaries, also buy gasoline from the refineries to supply their Belarusian fuel stations.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-increases-gasoline-imports-belarus-domestic-supplies-shrink-2024-03-27/#:~:text=This%20year%2C%20Russia%20has%20again,were%20no%20shipments%20from%20Belarus.

[Sheilbh]

Also those points are possibly fine if you're America with overwhelming firepower and capacity to strike anywhere. There is an element of choice.

But what are the alternatives for Ukraine, that Ukraine is capable of hitting and has the equipment to hit?

I'm not clear - although my default position is broadly to trust Ukrainians that they know what they're doing. Otherwise not great if you're telling them not to do x type of strike without providing the means to do y type of strike.

The alternative is that either Russia has informed the US (and the US considers it credible) that that infrastructure is an absolute red line for Russia, or (as in the early days of the invasion when Poland was looking at providing jets) Beijing has got on the line to DC and made it clear this can't happen. In those cases I can sympathise with the US.

[The Minsky Moment]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-increases-gasoline-imports-belarus-domestic-supplies-shrink-2024-03-27/#:~:text=This%20year%2C%20Russia%20has%20again,were%20no%20shipments%20from%20Belarus.

OK.  And how does that impact Russia's military capacity or Ukraine's ability to win?

[The Minsky Moment]

But what are the alternatives for Ukraine, that Ukraine is capable of hitting and has the equipment to hit?

. . .Otherwise not great if you're telling them not to do x type of strike without providing the means to do y type of strike.

I agree with those points; I said basically the same above.

I still think it's fair to consider the efficacy of the strikes.  There is a real concern on the other side - if the strikes spook the markets enough to cause world prices to spike, and that helps a Trump victory, the damage done to Ukraine's prospect is far, FAR greater than any impact on Russian military effectiveness.

[Tamas]

Hasn't the US denied they made that demand?

[Zoupa]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-increases-gasoline-imports-belarus-domestic-supplies-shrink-2024-03-27/#:~:text=This%20year%2C%20Russia%20has%20again,were%20no%20shipments%20from%20Belarus.

OK.  And how does that impact Russia's military capacity or Ukraine's ability to win?

After the failure of adequate sanctions, military support, and the 2023 counteroffensive, I believe Ukrainian command has realized that the war will not be won on the battlefield by some brilliant maneuver. The discrepancy of forces is too great and the West does not care enough.

Instead they've switched to make the war as costly as possible to russia. The Black Sea fleet is decimated, Belgorod is getting bombed daily, your refineries are on fire: leave Ukraine and it stops. Either that or general collapse/civil war in russia.

[Zoupa]

But what are the alternatives for Ukraine, that Ukraine is capable of hitting and has the equipment to hit?

. . .Otherwise not great if you're telling them not to do x type of strike without providing the means to do y type of strike.

I agree with those points; I said basically the same above.

I still think it's fair to consider the efficacy of the strikes.  There is a real concern on the other side - if the strikes spook the markets enough to cause world prices to spike, and that helps a Trump victory, the damage done to Ukraine's prospect is far, FAR greater than any impact on Russian military effectiveness.

"Hey Ukrainians, can you die more quietly please?"

[The Brain]

If the US fears the Trump victory then they have more reason to send loads of help before election night. Chop chop. Works both ways.

[Zoupa]

Hasn't the US denied they made that demand?

Department of State Press Briefing – March 26, 2024
MATTHEW MILLER, DEPARTMENT SPOKESPERSON

QUESTION: The Ukrainians have recently said after some reports about the U.S. warning them not to target Russian oil refineries that they understand those warnings but they have certain military targets that they will continue to target. Can you just bring us up to speed with regard to those conversations between the U.S. and Ukraine and if you guys have recently been telling them that they should not go after these Russian oil refineries?

MR MILLER: So I'm not going to speak to specific conversations, but it has always been our position since the outset of this war that we do not encourage or support Ukraine taking strikes outside its own territory.