Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[The Brain]

Friends like these...

[The Minsky Moment]

Instead they've switched to make the war as costly as possible to russia. The Black Sea fleet is decimated, Belgorod is getting bombed daily, your refineries are on fire: leave Ukraine and it stops. Either that or general collapse/civil war in russia.

The Black Sea fleet attacks have had strategic value because it's taken away the fleet as a weapon and allowed Ukraine some freedom of action economically.

More generally, however, Ukraine simply doesn't have the means to execute a punishment strategy anywhere near sufficient for that to be effective, assuming that such a strategy had any hope of success even if means were far greater.  Putin has sent hundreds of thousands of young men to their death and murdered the leading opposition leader and Russians meekly accepted his recoronation.  Thinking that adding some kopecks to gasoline prices is going to move the needle to wishful thinking.

[The Minsky Moment]

Friends like these...

Ukraine has become another chew toy in the Trumpist culture wars.  I'm hopeful Biden is returned and the Dems flip the house, and large scale aid flows back in. But if it goes the other way, Europe is on its own.  American cannot be counted on.  I don't like it, but that's the way it is now.

[Barrister]

Instead they've switched to make the war as costly as possible to russia. The Black Sea fleet is decimated, Belgorod is getting bombed daily, your refineries are on fire: leave Ukraine and it stops. Either that or general collapse/civil war in russia.

The Black Sea fleet attacks have had strategic value because it's taken away the fleet as a weapon and allowed Ukraine some freedom of action economically.

More generally, however, Ukraine simply doesn't have the means to execute a punishment strategy anywhere near sufficient for that to be effective, assuming that such a strategy had any hope of success even if means were far greater.  Putin has sent hundreds of thousands of young men to their death and murdered the leading opposition leader and Russians meekly accepted his recoronation.  Thinking that adding some kopecks to gasoline prices is going to move the needle to wishful thinking.

I read an analysis that the attacks on oil infrastructure aren't really meant to deprive Russia of oil - but rather to deprive Russia of the feedstocks for explosives (which are derived and refined from oil).

[The Minsky Moment]

It may be that my take on this issue is influenced by the fact that I recently read Robert Pape's Bombing to Win, the upshot of which is that most strategic bombing campaign aimed at civilian or war industry failed, even given much greater resources than Ukraine has.  Even with total air supremacy and massive bomber fleets it is extremely hard to cause enduring shortages of key materials in a well-resourced continental sized country. 

The best that can be said about these attacks is that the cost ratio is probably pretty favorable if only cheap drones are being used. It's also probably good for Ukrainian morale and I concede that is important.

[Zoupa]

Instead they've switched to make the war as costly as possible to russia. The Black Sea fleet is decimated, Belgorod is getting bombed daily, your refineries are on fire: leave Ukraine and it stops. Either that or general collapse/civil war in russia.

The Black Sea fleet attacks have had strategic value because it's taken away the fleet as a weapon and allowed Ukraine some freedom of action economically.

More generally, however, Ukraine simply doesn't have the means to execute a punishment strategy anywhere near sufficient for that to be effective, assuming that such a strategy had any hope of success even if means were far greater.  Putin has sent hundreds of thousands of young men to their death and murdered the leading opposition leader and Russians meekly accepted his recoronation.  Thinking that adding some kopecks to gasoline prices is going to move the needle to wishful thinking.

Death of a thousand cuts. It's all Ukraine can do since we don't care.

[Josquius]

Russia has started hitting Kharkiv again. Some fears they might be planning an offensive from the north again.
I have to say looking at a map it does seem odd they're not doing this. It would really stretch Ukraine and help the offensives in the east

It may be that my take on this issue is influenced by the fact that I recently read Robert Pape's Bombing to Win, the upshot of which is that most strategic bombing campaign aimed at civilian or war industry failed, even given much greater resources than Ukraine has.  Even with total air supremacy and massive bomber fleets it is extremely hard to cause enduring shortages of key materials in a well-resourced continental sized country. 

The best that can be said about these attacks is that the cost ratio is probably pretty favorable if only cheap drones are being used. It's also probably good for Ukrainian morale and I concede that is important.

Kind of a difference though between strategic bombing of simple industries with many dozens of sites and poor accuracy vs precision bombing of very particular complex parts of a limited number of sites.
Potentially unlimited chances to hit too with cheap unmanned drones vs ww2 bombers.

[Sheilbh]

I agree with those points; I said basically the same above.

I still think it's fair to consider the efficacy of the strikes.  There is a real concern on the other side - if the strikes spook the markets enough to cause world prices to spike, and that helps a Trump victory, the damage done to Ukraine's prospect is far, FAR greater than any impact on Russian military effectiveness.

I think that's fair.

My issue is whether that view or guidance is from the United States government or Joe Biden's re-election campaign and whether assessing the risk should be left to Ukraine (a country in an existential fight for survival) or the US government. Ultimately the Ukrainians may have decided that there's probably not much they can do to influence the US election they, like the rest of us, are doomed by whatever American voters decide and fairly fatalist about that - but conducting these types of attacks or not for the next 10 months is something they can do.

Let's take the worst case - they stop and for ten months are not able to attack Russia's fossil fuel war effort and then Trump wins.

I fully get that it's complicated because there's an argument the US is an existential political fight of its own (Edit: And similarly it is complicated because I think that Joe Biden's re-election campaign is very important for the purposes of the US government as currently understood).

And, as I say, I think that shifts if you provide the means for Ukraine to pursue an alternative strategy.

[The Minsky Moment]

The precision of the attacks doesn't really make a difference. As an example, the US actually hit most of the ball bearing factories they were trying to hit in Germany, but some of the machinery could be repaired, other machinery could be built elsewhere, ball bearings could be substituted or recycled from old equipment, etc. etc. We can see that with these attacks, military needs are entirely unaffected. Instead, the issue is whether to let domestic fuel prices rise a bit or take some hit on the merchandise trade balance.  In the context of an already heavily sanctioned economy it's far from a game changer.

Keep in mind the EU still has not cut off imports from Russia.

[Sheilbh]

Agreed - I think my point is that this was something within Ukraine's control. It was something Ukraine as a combatant can do. And I think sometimes in war there is a point of doing something purely in order to keep doing something - not having Ukraine move back solely to the position of air defence and trying to stop grinding Russian meat-grinder assaults. There is a psychological element there.

They cannot control the US electorate, global markets for Russian fossil fuels, the EU's sanction regime or sanction arbitrage through Central Asia or the Caucasus. They can encourage and try to push those things along but they're fundamentally in the laps of the Gods (or Joe Biden and Ursula von der Leyen, YMMV).

That's been closed down for them by those other powers without providing the means to do something else. That's the issue I have with it.

[Josquius]

The precision of the attacks doesn't really make a difference. As an example, the US actually hit most of the ball bearing factories they were trying to hit in Germany, but some of the machinery could be repaired, other machinery could be built elsewhere, ball bearings could be substituted or recycled from old equipment, etc. etc. We can see that with these attacks, military needs are entirely unaffected. Instead, the issue is whether to let domestic fuel prices rise a bit or take some hit on the merchandise trade balance.  In the context of an already heavily sanctioned economy it's far from a game changer.

Keep in mind the EU still has not cut off imports from Russia.

Quickly checking wiki the ball bearing attacks did knock out German production for 6 weeks... at huge cost in lives and machinery for the US.
In Ukraine you've got much harder to repair factories (both technically and in the corrupt system), and the Ukrainian ability to hit them as many times as they like without anyone dying.

Worth remembering Ukraine doesn't have to totally cut off Russian production for this to be a win. The attacks simply have to cost Russia a lot more than they cost Ukraine. Which they do seem to be doing.

I read today Russia has started importing petrol from Belarus to make up for shortages.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-increases-gasoline-imports-belarus-domestic-supplies-shrink-2024-03-27/#:~:text=Russia%20normally%20imports%20very%20little,another%20oil%20product%20export%20ban.

[The Minsky Moment]

That's been closed down for them by those other powers without providing the means to do something else.

The latter part is the real problem. When the opportunity existed to give Ukraine even more substantial means of resistance, it was allowed to pass out of timidity.

[grumbler]

Hasn't the US denied they made that demand?

And so have the Ukrainians.  Lots of angst over am apparently bullshit story based on no evidence whatsoever.

[Josquius]

It's weird the story has just died given it was the FT published it. Usually they're reliable. Really wonder where it came from.

[Zoupa]

I literally posted the official position of the US like 5 posts ago guys.