Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[grumbler]

Oh, remember how Elon Musk was so nice and generous sending all that Starlink technology to help Ukraine. Turns out, the US gov't paid a substantial amount of the cost for that:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/08/us-quietly-paying-millions-send-starlink-terminals-ukraine-contrary-spacexs-claims/

The story as it reads is that the US has agreed to buy c. 1300 terminals to add to the c. 3700 SpaceX donated, and will pay shipping costs for their terminals plus some of the SpaceX ones.  But the USAID involvement is very recent, and Musk's comments much older than that.  I would seem that the French and Polish governments transported the terminals into Ukraine before the USAID involvement.

[DGuller]

Thanks.  I didn't realize that so many of these details are measured.  I guess even the ones that aren't measured are roughly accounted for by corrections, as long as they don't change from round to round.

The reason I was thinking about it again is by watching the drone footage from Ukrainians.  In the more recent drone clips, the drones merely act as spotters rather than bombers (and some of these drones are cheap consumer drones anyone can buy).  Once they spot the column of vehicles, artillery opens up on them.  Obviously they don't hit with every shot, especially not at the beginning, but the fact that they hit so often seems like magic.

[PDH]

Also, there are now ways to (somewhat) guide artillery shells for certain systems.  Most often it is by laser-targeting with small adjustments able to made by the munitions.  Of course, I don't know if any of these are being used.

[Tamas]

Good summary again and the guy briefly mentions how nowadays arty units can use their own drones to target which is a great improvement over using radio spotters.

EDIT, sorry, forgot the link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDKH_FxFdrw

[Jacob]

The story as it reads is that the US has agreed to buy c. 1300 terminals to add to the c. 3700 SpaceX donated, and will pay shipping costs for their terminals plus some of the SpaceX ones.  But the USAID involvement is very recent, and Musk's comments much older than that.  I would seem that the French and Polish governments transported the terminals into Ukraine before the USAID involvement.

Fair enough.

[DGuller]

I find intercepted Russian calls posted by Ukrainian intelligence to normally be only slightly less depressing than images from Bucha, but this one takes the cake:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlDtLLij-EE

Russian soldier: Tells cutesy story about his daughter writing him a letter asking him to kill all Ukrainians and come home.
Wife: 
Russian soldier: 

This kind of banality of depravity just doesn't compute.

[The Larch]

Didn't know if putting this here or in the French thread:

Macron calls Polish PM 'a far-right anti-Semite' in row over Putin talks

French President Emmanuel Macron has called Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki "a far-right anti-Semite who bans LGBT people", after being criticised for his talks with Russia's Vladimir Putin.

Mr Morawiecki compared Mr Macron's efforts to negotiating with Hitler.

The French president has held regular conversations with Mr Putin since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine.

On Friday, Poland summoned the French ambassador over Mr Macron's comments, made to a French newspaper.

"How many times have you negotiated with Putin and what have you achieved?" Mr Morawiecki said on Monday.

"It's my duty to speak with him, we need it. I won't stop doing it, that's what allows us to take part in the negotiation," he said.

"By talking to him and to [Ukraine's] President Zelensky, we can help in the negotiation. At some point, there will be a ceasefire and peace will have to be built. It cannot be done without a guarantor, France is committed to be one of these guarantors."

It is not clear why Mr Macron accused Mr Morawiecki of anti-Semitism, although the Polish government has faced international criticism for laws making it harder for Jewish people to recover property lost during and after World War Two, as well as one making it an offence to link the Polish nation to Nazi crimes.

Mr Macron also said Mr Morawiecki wanted to help his rival Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election on Sunday.

Opinion polls show that Ms Le Pen has closed the gap on Mr Macron, who joined the campaign late and has seen his lead erode as Ms Le Pen focussed on a cost-of-living message.

He enjoyed a boost from his diplomatic efforts in the Ukraine conflict but that has faded, and he has tried to portray Ms Le Pen as someone sympathetic to Mr Putin.

A Polish government spokesman, Piotr Müller, rejected Mr Macron's accusation of anti-Semitism, saying he had gone "too far" with his choice of words.

[Sheilbh]

Not great

I think there's an argument for Macron still talking to Putin (and Scholz and Michel - there is no argument for the PM of Luxembourg having regular catch-ups with the Kremlin ). But I think it is arguable and tht Morawiecki's point is fair - at a point is the value of those talks outweighed by what Russia is doing. My instinct is they are less justifiable after uncovering the crimes in Bucha, but I'm not sure where I am yet on whether they should just stop. I'm not convinced anyone is helped by having this argument in public.

Saying it two days before an election begs a cynical electioneering interpretation of Macron - I don't think that's right. I think he's possibly just being a little thin-skinned about criticism (which has happened before - as I said in the AUKUS thread off the top of my head he's recalled ambassadors from about five allies at some point in his term). I also think given the weapons Poland is sending, the refugees they're taking, the sanctions they're pushing for and the steps they're taking on energy that it seems a little bit like France (who will be a "guarantor" of any future deal) telling "New Europe" to shut up.

Moraweicki's line on this was:

President Macron, how many times have you negotiated with Putin? What have you achieved? Did you stop any of the actions that took place?

Criminals are not debated with or negotiated with. Criminals must be fought. Nobody negotiated with Hitler. Would you negotiate with Hitler? Would you negotiate with Stalin? Would you negotiate with Pol Pot?

[Zoupa]

Yeah, not a great move by Macron.

To play devil's advocate, Moraweicki's original statement wasn't very constructive either.

[Sheilbh]

To play devil's advocate, Moraweicki's original statement wasn't very constructive either.

Agreed - particularly calling him out by name. I don't think there was any need for that.

In his defence my understanding is those remarks were made on Monday shortly after the pictures from Bucha were first released. So in the same way as I think there's a bit of a thin skin from Macron my suspicion is there was a bit of emotion with Morawiecki's remarks too. Plus Poland is right in feeling more afraid and I think that fear needs to be taken account of - maybe a little more than it is - by other leaders, perhaps especially in Western Europe.

[KRonn]

I have a military technology question for all those who served, especially in artillery:  how can artillery, with proper spotting, be so accurate?  My understanding is that even a 100 years ago, you could zero in an artillery to hit a pretty small spot, if you just observe where the shots land and do the necessary corrections. 

What I find difficult to fathom is how you control for so many random variables?  It seems to me that your artillery rounds have to be exactly the same, the aiming system has to have exactly zero slack in it and not be thrown off by the violence of shell firing, the platform on which the artillery sits has to be perfectly solid and incompressible, the barrel has to stay exactly the same despite the heat and explosive forces of the rounds being fired, and so on.  When you're firing from many miles away, being off even by just a tiny bit on any of those things would count for a lot, I would think. 

Am I missing something that makes those factors not that important?  Or are the people working in artillery units so trained that all these sources of variance are eliminated with precision unimaginable to lay people?

On a somewhat related note, in WW2 the US Army artillery devised a process to coordinate artillery units of different calibers and ranges from a target to hit the target at the same time. That must have been so devastating.

Towards the end of the war, probably the last year, the US and I assume allies also used proximity fuses in artillery to have them burst above ground. Same type of proximity fuses used in anti-aircraft shells that burst near an aircraft. Those air bursts were devastating to troops. US leaders didn't use them earlier in ground battles in case the enemy got hold of dud shells and could replicate them.

I read an article on the making of proximity shells. They had to take so many factors into consideration. It was quite a wonder that they were able to do it! Other nations had tried but failed.

[Jacob]

Saw a social media post (quoting CNN) that Swedish and Finnish NATO applications could be coming as soon as next month.

[Legbiter]

Putin has appointed Alexander Dvornikov to overall command in order to turn around his invasion.



If he does well he can look forward to falling out of a window to his death in a couple of years.

[Solmyr]

Saw a social media post (quoting CNN) that Swedish and Finnish NATO applications could be coming as soon as next month.

Here in Finland some newspapers have reported that the government plans an announcement to the parliament next Thursday (Thursdays are when the government publicly meets with the parliament and answers policy questions).

[Threviel]

Three things:

1. Apparently there's a video circulating on the Orc internjet of an orc soldier raping a toddler, filming it and putting it up on Telegram, as a thing he is proud of.

2. The leader of the Sweden Democrats, fresh off Putins cock with a bit of dribble on his cheeks, has come out as for Nato if Finland joins. He is more or less the party so that means that if Finland joins there will be a parliamentary majority for Nato. In that case I believe the Social Democrats will also come out for Nato.

3. The Finnish Center party has come out for Nato, therefore, in all probability, Finland, and then Sweden, will join Nato.