Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

I feel like the historical precedent for this level of involvement isn't great, right?

Putin involved in war 'at level of colonel or brigadier', say western sources

President helping determine movement of Russian soldiers, say sources, as head of UK armed forces says Ukraine is winning

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/16/putin-involved-russia-ukraine-war-western-sources

[DGuller]

That's a pretty low level to be managing at for a head of state.  I can see why he's so desperate to reduce the number of functional units in Ukraine, the sheer amount of workload he's taking on is unsustainable and has to be reduced somehow.

[Jacob]

I could at least imagine some kind of "soft coup" in Russia that saw a younger generation come in and revamp the entire thing....

From what I've read (which is not super in depth, to be fair), Putin has done a great job destroying most of the younger generation in terms of leadership rivals. I guess we'll see.

[Barrister]

I feel like the historical precedent for this level of involvement isn't great, right?

Putin involved in war 'at level of colonel or brigadier', say western sources

President helping determine movement of Russian soldiers, say sources, as head of UK armed forces says Ukraine is winning

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/16/putin-involved-russia-ukraine-war-western-sources

The flip side of course is that Zelenskyy is completely uninvolved in military planning - he leaves that up to his generals.  Zelenskyy views his role is more one of keeping up morale - which does seem the better use of his skills as a former actor and comedian.

[The Minsky Moment]

I feel like the historical precedent for this level of involvement isn't great, right?

We'll know the end is near when he starts issuing orders to phantom formations.

[Jacob]

The flip side of course is that Zelenskyy is completely uninvolved in military planning - he leaves that up to his generals.  Zelenskyy views his role is more one of keeping up morale - which does seem the better use of his skills as a former actor and comedian.

Keeping up morale, inspiring confidence, and rallying external support. And he's done a superb job.

[Jacob]

It looks like a realistic assessment of Russia's position is beginning to seep through even official channels: https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526293852704890882

[Berkut]

I could at least imagine some kind of "soft coup" in Russia that saw a younger generation come in and revamp the entire thing....

A lot of the problems of the Russian military comes from it being a top-down kleptocracy.  Simply replacing Putin with a new, younger version does little to help revamp anything.

I am pretty sure I was not suggesting that the only thing needed was someone young....

What are you getting at here? Of course there is nothing remotely simple about any "solution" to Russia's basic malfunctioning.

[Jacob]

I feel like the historical precedent for this level of involvement isn't great, right?

Putin involved in war 'at level of colonel or brigadier', say western sources

President helping determine movement of Russian soldiers, say sources, as head of UK armed forces says Ukraine is winning

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/16/putin-involved-russia-ukraine-war-western-sources

One can't help but wonder whether the now famous failed crossing at Siverskyi Donets had direct Putin involvement. It would make a bad look even worse.

[PDH]

One can't help but wonder whether the now famous failed crossing at Siverskyi Donets had direct Putin involvement. It would make a bad look even worse.

Given that apparently the crossing was tried multiple times (with the same results), one might guess that there was someone high up ordering this...

[Barrister]

Given that apparently the crossing was tried multiple times (with the same results), one might guess that there was someone high up ordering this...

It's a theme you see reported a few times - the Russians trying to exact same move repeatedly, only to fail every time.

[Tamas]

It looks like a realistic assessment of Russia's position is beginning to seep through even official channels: https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526293852704890882

He has just become a suicide candidate I think.

[Sheilbh]

It looks like a realistic assessment of Russia's position is beginning to seep through even official channels: https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526293852704890882

Pretty extraordinary moment - and an accurate description of the issues they face. "The main deficiency of our military-political position is that virtually the entire world is against us", seems like quite a large deficiency. Especially facing a motivated enemy with high morale fighting for its homeland.

One can't help but wonder whether the now famous failed crossing at Siverskyi Donets had direct Putin involvement. It would make a bad look even worse.

The article mentions that as well as repeated assaults on Severodonetsk - there's no evidence that Putin's involved. The assessment that he's micro-managing comes from a Western intelligence source who didn't provide any evidence but the article mentions those two assaults.

It looks like the Russians have given up trying to encircle Donbas - and around Kharkiv the Ukrainians have pushed back to the border at some points - and are now just trying to take the remainder of Luhansk oblast.

[Jacob]

@Tamas and @Sheilbh - this is actually consistent for this guy. A week ago he was the one saying that a general Russian mobilization won't make a difference in this war: https://twitter.com/TechTraderView/status/1523389860748271616

In January, he wrote an article basically dismissing all the Russian triumphalist reasoning about a quick victory in Ukraine and offered an analysis consistent with how things have played out to date. It's in Russian, but google translate does a pretty solid job: https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html

I looked up the paper - the Nezavisimaya Gazeta - and it is apparently a regime critical paper (but more moderate than Novaya Gazeta) and, it seems, still publishing.

[Sheilbh]

That article is very spot on.

Also interesting on him, from Alexander Clarkson:

Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
Khodaryonok worked in the Operational Command of the General Staff under Yeltsin and has been a defence journo for years. State media editors will known his views, and that he won't be touched because of his former role, but invited him on anyway. As interesting as his comments