Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

This conflict is de facto over.

After the Russians kicked the everloving shit out of the Ukrainian army, there is now a "ceasefire" which means the Ukes are sitting around while their garrison in the Donetsk airport, the last strategic point they control in the region, get shelled and shot at on a daily basis.

With fighting otherwise stopped, I am sure the Russians are pouring in supplies and reinforcements by the truckload, so whatever window of opportunity Ukraine  had to win this is long gone. They have already committed to giving a few years long special status to the eastern rebel regions.

I guess the West should hope Putin properly grabs those territories and annexes them, but it may very well be better for him to let Ukraine keep them Moldavia style, as that pretty much eliminates all chance of NATO and EU membership for the country. And the Ukrainian leaders will not propose themselves to let the eastern 3rd of the country go, so there we go.

[grumbler]

Ah.  That's what happened to this thread... Mongers was dicking around with the title, as is his wont.

Guys, let's all just agree to let Mongers-started threads be the lightweight shit we don't care about when he makes it hard to find by mongerizing titles.  If someone sees a topic started by Mongers that they think is worth serious discussion, just start a new thread and we will all abandon the Mongers thread except for the kindergarten stuff.  That way, we can have serious intellectual discussions without any mongerization getting in the way, and he can get the ego-gratification of starting as many threads as Timmay.

[garbon]

he can get the ego-gratification of starting as many threads as Timmay.

He has a very long, long way to go on that front.

[grumbler]

This conflict is de facto over.

After the Russians kicked the everloving shit out of the Ukrainian army, there is now a "ceasefire" which means the Ukes are sitting around while their garrison in the Donetsk airport, the last strategic point they control in the region, get shelled and shot at on a daily basis.

With fighting otherwise stopped, I am sure the Russians are pouring in supplies and reinforcements by the truckload, so whatever window of opportunity Ukraine  had to win this is long gone. They have already committed to giving a few years long special status to the eastern rebel regions.

I guess the West should hope Putin properly grabs those territories and annexes them, but it may very well be better for him to let Ukraine keep them Moldavia style, as that pretty much eliminates all chance of NATO and EU membership for the country. And the Ukrainian leaders will not propose themselves to let the eastern 3rd of the country go, so there we go.

I agree, for the most part.  I think the Russian Army, now that it has done its thing, has pretty much pulled out of the Ukraine, but remains ready to go back in and pretend to be rebels once again.  However, I think Putin has bought himself a bigger problem than he currently realizes.  He has made the welfare of the people in the breakaway regions his own responsibility, and left the Ukrainian government the perfect excuse for not supplying economic aid to the area:  that it is "unstable and unsafe."  That means that Russia is going to have to undertake the cost of supplying the goods and services the region needs, at the expense of the needs of Russia.  Unlike the Gross Deutschland model he is following, the Gross Russland model weakens Russia with every success.

[Admiral Yi]

According to The Economist, all that havoc was wreaked by 4 Russian battalions.

[DGuller]

Ah.  That's what happened to this thread... Mongers was dicking around with the title, as is his wont.

Guys, let's all just agree to let Mongers-started threads be the lightweight shit we don't care about when he makes it hard to find by mongerizing titles.  If someone sees a topic started by Mongers that they think is worth serious discussion, just start a new thread and we will all abandon the Mongers thread except for the kindergarten stuff.  That way, we can have serious intellectual discussions without any mongerization getting in the way, and he can get the ego-gratification of starting as many threads as Timmay.

Yeah, seriously, that joke played itself out sometime between zeroth and first time.

[Admiral Yi]

According to The Economist, all that havoc was wreaked by 4 Russian battalions.

Wrought, I guess.

[DGuller]

According to The Economist, all that havoc was wreaked by 4 Russian battalions.

Ukrainian army was never going to be a match for Russians.  I think the fact that Ukrainians actually did well enough against the "rebels" to force the Russians to invade openly makes it as much of a win for them as they would ever be allowed to get.

[Martinus]

According to The Economist, all that havoc was wreaked by 4 Russian battalions.

Wrought, I guess.

I think there is a difference between wreaked and wrought.

[Martinus]

According to The Economist, all that havoc was wreaked by 4 Russian battalions.

Ukrainian army was never going to be a match for Russians.  I think the fact that Ukrainians actually did well enough against the "rebels" to force the Russians to invade openly makes it as much of a win for them as they would ever be allowed to get.

I like the fact that Western Ukrainians are apparently preparing for a guerilla war now.

[DGuller]

According to The Economist, all that havoc was wreaked by 4 Russian battalions.

Ukrainian army was never going to be a match for Russians.  I think the fact that Ukrainians actually did well enough against the "rebels" to force the Russians to invade openly makes it as much of a win for them as they would ever be allowed to get.

I like the fact that Western Ukrainians are apparently preparing for a guerilla war now.

Against whom?

[Admiral Yi]

Ukrainian army was never going to be a match for Russians.  I think the fact that Ukrainians actually did well enough against the "rebels" to force the Russians to invade openly makes it as much of a win for them as they would ever be allowed to get.

Duh.  My point is the numbers of troops are tiny compared to past conflicts.

[Admiral Yi]

I think there is a difference between wreaked and wrought.

Then what's the present tense of wrought?

[Martinus]

According to The Economist, all that havoc was wreaked by 4 Russian battalions.

Ukrainian army was never going to be a match for Russians.  I think the fact that Ukrainians actually did well enough against the "rebels" to force the Russians to invade openly makes it as much of a win for them as they would ever be allowed to get.

I like the fact that Western Ukrainians are apparently preparing for a guerilla war now.

Against whom?

Russians. Or Poles. Or Jews. They do not seem to care.

[grumbler]

According to The Economist, all that havoc was wreaked by 4 Russian battalions.

Wrought, I guess.

Plus heavy rebel support.  Given the scale of the action, four battalions is a lot.