Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

Started by mongers, August 06, 2014, 03:12:53 PM

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Eddie Teach

To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Jacob

Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 17, 2014, 10:47:24 AM
Quote from: Martinus on September 17, 2014, 10:43:37 AM
I think there is a difference between wreaked and wrought.

Then what's the present tense of wrought?

Work

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/wrought

... maybe I should ask Peter Wiggin what he thinks about the question.

KRonn

Quote from: DGuller on September 17, 2014, 10:42:12 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 17, 2014, 10:38:14 AM
According to The Economist, all that havoc was wreaked by 4 Russian battalions.
Ukrainian army was never going to be a match for Russians.  I think the fact that Ukrainians actually did well enough against the "rebels" to force the Russians to invade openly makes it as much of a win for them as they would ever be allowed to get.
Yeah, I figured, but was hoping against hope that the Ukes could pull off a WW2 Finland type defense. But Finland in the winter is a very different battleground than wide open Ukraine.

Martinus

Quote from: KRonn on September 17, 2014, 02:06:52 PM
Quote from: DGuller on September 17, 2014, 10:42:12 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 17, 2014, 10:38:14 AM
According to The Economist, all that havoc was wreaked by 4 Russian battalions.
Ukrainian army was never going to be a match for Russians.  I think the fact that Ukrainians actually did well enough against the "rebels" to force the Russians to invade openly makes it as much of a win for them as they would ever be allowed to get.
Yeah, I figured, but was hoping against hope that the Ukes could pull off a WW2 Finland type defense. But Finland in the winter is a very different battleground than wide open Ukraine.

I think it is also the testimony to Ukraine being divided along ethnic lines. As I said before, the Western Ukes are getting ready for a guerrilla warfare and I'm fairly certain they could pull it off if Putin wanted to get Kiev or Lviv.

KRonn

I would assume Putin will stop having gotten the corridor to Crimea, plus other concessions from Ukraine, such as the official language of the areas that were disputed invaded is Russian. And I think the Ukrainians will be allowed more latitude to work with the EU for economic purposes, or they're just going that route despite Russian opposition.

grumbler

Quote from: KRonn on September 17, 2014, 02:06:52 PM
Yeah, I figured, but was hoping against hope that the Ukes could pull off a WW2 Finland type defense. But Finland in the winter is a very different battleground than wide open Ukraine.

Actually, the closest parallel would be Stalingrad; the Ukrainians wanted to take the city quickly, before the Russians could intervene.  They took the city, but couldn't resist the forces the Russians then committed to surround the city.  The breakout ended up getting crushed by Russian tank and anti-tank forces, and the 600 or so men left in the pocket surrendered.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

mongers

Quote from: grumbler on September 17, 2014, 10:29:31 AM
Ah.  That's what happened to this thread... Mongers was dicking around with the title, as is his wont.

Guys, let's all just agree to let Mongers-started threads be the lightweight shit we don't care about when he makes it hard to find by mongerizing titles.  If someone sees a topic started by Mongers that they think is worth serious discussion, just start a new thread and we will all abandon the Mongers thread except for the kindergarten stuff.  That way, we can have serious intellectual discussions without any mongerization getting in the way, and he can get the ego-gratification of starting as many threads as Timmay.

And yet you've posted a further three times in this thread since posting that.   :hmm:

I'd suggest you've had a sense of humour failure, but I'm not sure the forum search function with this version/database of posts can go back far enough to demonstrate a non-failed faculty.
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

derspiess

Quote from: Martinus on September 17, 2014, 02:16:54 PM
I think it is also the testimony to Ukraine being divided along ethnic lines. As I said before, the Western Ukes are getting ready for a guerrilla warfare and I'm fairly certain they could pull it off if Putin wanted to get Kiev or Lviv.

They did before-- for like a decade following WWII IIRC.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Martinus

Quote from: derspiess on September 17, 2014, 03:04:42 PM
Quote from: Martinus on September 17, 2014, 02:16:54 PM
I think it is also the testimony to Ukraine being divided along ethnic lines. As I said before, the Western Ukes are getting ready for a guerrilla warfare and I'm fairly certain they could pull it off if Putin wanted to get Kiev or Lviv.

They did before-- for like a decade following WWII IIRC.

Yeah but then they were mainly slaughtering Poles. :P

It is actually quite funny how the reactions to Ukrainians vary in Poland. Most of the country is firmly pro-Ukrainian... except people from Western Poland, especially Breslau (which was colonised by relocated Poles from Lviv - after Germans were kicked out) - they want Ukrainians to just hang, Putin or no Putin. And it is irrespective of their worldview, otherwise (I have a friend - hailing from Wroclaw - who is a lovely, open-minded, polyamorous, gay-friendly woman who loves horses - and she wouldn't piss on an Ukrainian if he was on fire :P).

grumbler

Quote from: Martinus on September 17, 2014, 03:07:30 PM
... And it is irrespective of their worldview, otherwise (I have a friend - hailing from Wroclaw - who is a lovely, open-minded, polyamorous, gay-friendly woman who loves horses - and she wouldn't piss on an Ukrainian if he was on fire :P).

Well, for a woman to piss on a burning Ukrainian would expose her to some dangers that a man wouldn't face....
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

Martinus


Syt

German Süddeutsche Zeitung has an article about a phone call summary from the EU about a phone call between Russian and Ukrainian president.

Supposedly, Putin cautioned Poroshenko against relying on the EU. Using bilateral contacts he could block the European Council with regards to further steps against Russia. Also, his troops could be in Warsaw, Vilnius, Riga, Tallin, or Bucharest on short "within two days." Poroshenko supposedly quoted this to show how emotional Putin gets about EU influence in countries neighboring Russia.

The postponement of the free trade part of the EU-Ukrainian agreement till 2016 is reportedly a result of these conversations.
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein's brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops.
—Stephen Jay Gould

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

Tamas

I think it has been quite a while that we had a European head of state conducting diplomacy by threatening with general war.

I am so glad such a bully is faced with "military action is ruled out" counterparts. I think it is a general consensus that also in schools when the little kids lay down and take it like a little bitch from the bully, the bully just stops at reasonable limits.

Zanza

Quote from: Tamas on September 18, 2014, 03:36:10 AM
I think it has been quite a while that we had a European head of state conducting diplomacy by threatening with general war.

I am so glad such a bully is faced with "military action is ruled out" counterparts. I think it is a general consensus that also in schools when the little kids lay down and take it like a little bitch from the bully, the bully just stops at reasonable limits.
Great analogy. Why did no one so far think of looking at elementary school problem resolution and how it applies to international politics? I am sure Obama and Merkel could learn so much there.

Tamas

Quote from: Zanza on September 18, 2014, 05:36:03 AM
Quote from: Tamas on September 18, 2014, 03:36:10 AM
I think it has been quite a while that we had a European head of state conducting diplomacy by threatening with general war.

I am so glad such a bully is faced with "military action is ruled out" counterparts. I think it is a general consensus that also in schools when the little kids lay down and take it like a little bitch from the bully, the bully just stops at reasonable limits.
Great analogy. Why did no one so far think of looking at elementary school problem resolution and how it applies to international politics? I am sure Obama and Merkel could learn so much there.

:rolleyes: you know what I meant.

I do agree that personal life examples do not fit international politics.

Point is, if you have somebody like Putin who throws his military weight around freely, reaping massive gains in terms of internal power and popularity, as well as international significance, you cannot counter that by saying "there is no way we are going to use military means against him". That is like being in a poker hand, openly declare that you are guaranteed to fold before the end of play, then trying to outbid your opponent.