Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[mongers]

Turns out the border guards on snake island didn't die to a man, seems they ran out of ammunition and were forced to surrender, all 13 apparently alive:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60554959

Snake Island: Ukraine says troops who swore at Russian warship are alive

Ukraine's navy says the 13 soldiers believed to have been killed defending Zmiinyi (Snake) Island on the first day of the Russian invasion are alive.

The border guards were given posthumous honours by the president after they were heard in audio recordings telling a Russian warship to "go to hell".

Russia said at the time that the troops on the island surrendered.

On Monday, the Ukrainian Naval Forces confirmed in a Facebook post that "our brothers-in-arms are alive and well".

The border guards and marines on the island "twice bravely repulsed the attacks of the Russian occupiers" but were unable to continue fighting because they ran out of ammunition, it said.

Maybe wise to sometimes question what the Ukrainians are saying?

[Legbiter]

Re. Everyone needing to calm down - General Sir Richard Barrons, ex-head of Joint Forces Command saying we should have no-fly zone: "It does mean war with Russia..." :
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1498437262727647237?s=20&t=AUSmIKvh_V0Y63OUYLWzmg

Wildly too flippant. Not wildly thrilled that the discourse has taken a turn to: "yeah - war with Russia, why not? YOLO" from relatively senior/respected figures

Yeah. He can personally just go to Ukraine. Join the fight.

[jimmy olsen]

But this is only like 4 days in?

I've seen references to this not being "shock and awe" which is mostly known as a reference to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, but if you remember the actual invasion of Iraq it took almost two weeks to get to Baghdad and there was a ton of angst that things weren't going well for the Allies. It took over two weeks to secure Basra which is in some ways comparable in terms of the stepping off point to Kharkiv. In hindsight the Iraqi military collapsed without meaningful resistance and the invasion was successful and quick--but that was not the perspective at the time. (obviously there were massive problems and ultimate failure in the subsequent occupation)

I believe the russian military is as messed up and underfunded as every other state institution in russia, but in terms of how things are going there is still a massive fog of war. Maybe Russia is frustrated by the lack of military progress, maybe they are on schedule, maybe they are somewhere in between...

It's correct that just because we're at say, day 4 or day 10 and X has not happened yet, that doesn't necessarily mean Russia is doing good or bad. You have to really ask yourself, "What is Russia's strategic goal?" Then ask yourself "are their current tactical operations succeeding in that strategic goal?"

Now, none of us know the truth of Russia's goals with 100% certainty, but we can make a reasoned analysis based on what we have seen. Russia did not move into Ukraine initially with what I would characterize as a broad front, general invasion to grab tons of territory. It was instead a laser focused effort to seize key points if your goal was to "take over the country's government": the capital, key power stations, key port and airport facilities. This suggests there is a decent likelihood that Russia's hope was it could seize key pieces of the Ukrainian state and then essentially declare Zelensky "resigned" or whatever and find some Ukrainian citizen friendly to Russia they could put in his place. In this scenario I imagine they believe that much like in Crimea, much of Ukraine would be mostly fine with this and be happy to continue their lives as a vassalized state of Russia, since (in Putin's mind) these people had no real loyalty to the current Ukrainian state at all.

This actually isn't a crazy/stupid plan, per se, it has a lot of resemblance to our initial takeover of Iraq in the early 2000s. And in Iraq, while we very quickly mismanaged the sectarian problems, in the earliest days there was significant Iraqi domestic opposition to Saddam, toppling of Ba'athist statues and etc. Saddam's government had always been a minoritarian government that large swathes of Iraq (the Shiites and Kurds) despised. That war got sideways because we had no real answer for how to manage the competing interests of the different religious/ethnic enclaves in Iraq and they eventually decided to go to war with us to get us out, because they knew they wouldn't be able to "settle up" until we were out of the country.

Now we have to look at whether or not Russia's tactical operations have served that strategic goal. From what we can see so far, not very much. Several high-profile special forces raids ended in a complete defeat for Russian forces. Zelensky was not decapitated in the early days of the war, and in fact has now become a domestic and international hero. Russia has done a little better at some of the Southern ports and with some locations in the East, but overall if we assume the strategic goal was as stated, the tactical operations haven't worked. Mainly because to serve that strategic goal you would need to start seeing section of Ukraine break away from the Ukrainian state on their own and accept Russian governance. Instead you're seeing widespread domestic opposition to Russia's incursion--including even among Russian speaking Ukrainians.

One of the issues with Putin's strategic goal is that it isn't easily achieved with more troops and more bombs. In fact more troops and more bombs may make even more enemies of Russia. Mind you Russia could have 100% of Ukraine's land occupied and still be failing at its strategic goal, if that strategic goal is a pliable Ukraine friendly to Russia. If it ends up with a hostile Ukraine that requires a permanent occupation force of 150,000+ Russian soldiers, open-ended with no end in sight, that would not really be seen as a "win" based on the presumed strategic goal suggested by their initial days of operations in the war.

Several Russian state media outlets automatically published their victory article on the weekday declare the conquest of the Ukranian state and reversal of the disaster of 1991.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/world/russian-news-agency-appears-to-accidentally-publish-article-claiming-victory-3590253

In the comment piece, published on Saturday, Mr Akopov described the "national humiliation" when Ukraine was lost to Russia in 1991 and praised Russian president Vladimir Putin, who, Mr Akopov said "has assumed, without a drop of exaggeration, a historic responsibility by deciding not to leave the solution of the Ukrainian question to future generations".

He wrote: "Russia is restoring its unity – the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe in our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome. Yes, at a great cost, yes, through the tragic events of a virtual civil war."

He said under the new terms, which assumed a quick victory on the part of the Russian military, Ukraine's statehood would be "reorganised, re-established and returned to its natural state of part of the Russian world".

[Jacob]

Yeah, that was shared upthread a bit earlier. It's quite illuminating. And it shows that for Putin it's an existential and spiritual obligation he's pursuing, so he's taking it quite seriously.

Conversely, it looks like it's the same from the West - it's "hey, we remember what happened last time we didn't act when a national romantic despot invaded their neighbour in purusit of their 'destiny.' We shouldn't stand idly by."

[Josquius]

Re. Everyone needing to calm down - General Sir Richard Barrons, ex-head of Joint Forces Command saying we should have no-fly zone: "It does mean war with Russia..." :
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1498437262727647237?s=20&t=AUSmIKvh_V0Y63OUYLWzmg

Wildly too flippant. Not wildly thrilled that the discourse has taken a turn to: "yeah - war with Russia, why not? YOLO" from relatively senior/respected figures

I think it's coming.

Russia is on record warning Europe against arming the Ukrainian military and saying support will be met with harsh consequences. They're also saying this is the end of Europe as a pacifistic project to unite Europe (they're right about that too, thanks to Putin).

I think there's a solid chance that if Russia does not succeed in conquering Ukraine, pacifying the population, and keeping the West from supporting Ukrainian resistance that they will escalate with Europe and the US. And I don't think they'll succeed, and I don't think Europe - nor the US - is going to abandon Ukraine at this point.

Since covid the rules of the world have sort of fallen away.
Putin has definitely been affected by the malaise and doubt about the world.
It does feel somewhat likely. Fuck. So this is finally the end. Such a anti climax.

[Jacob]

It's not over quite yet

[viper37]

I shouldn't be laughing, because it is a serious situation and people are dying, but man, that made me laugh:
Joe Rogan Skewered for Spreading Fake Report That Steven Seagal Joined Russian Special Forces

how could you honestly believe that Steven Seagal, as out of shape as he is now, could be a serious recruit for Russian forces?  Being a Putin admirer's from far away, in the comfort of the US is one thing, but even if he was 30 years younger, I doubt he'd risk his skin abroad instead of making money over here.

[Valmy]

Is Putin really going to nuke us all over Ukraine? I don't think so but then I am the idiot who thought he was too smart to invade Ukraine.

[Razgovory]

Since covid the rules of the world have sort of fallen away.
Putin has definitely been affected by the malaise and doubt about the world.
It does feel somewhat likely. Fuck. So this is finally the end. Such a anti climax.

[Jacob]

Is Putin really going to nuke us all over Ukraine? I don't think so but then I am the idiot who thought he was too smart to invade Ukraine.

Maybe he has cancer and is dying and wants to be remembered as the saviour of Russia, and if he can't be he wants the world to die with him.

[alfred russel]

Conversely, it looks like it's the same from the West - it's "hey, we remember what happened last time we didn't act when a national romantic despot invaded their neighbour in purusit of their 'destiny.' We shouldn't stand idly by."

If you think just a little deeper past the superficial level, that is not a reassuring analogy. Is there any doubt Hitler would have launched a full nuclear strike before accepting defeat?

[viper37]

Is Putin really going to nuke us all over Ukraine? I don't think so but then I am the idiot who thought he was too smart to invade Ukraine.

Over the support we give Ukraine? No.

Over a military counter-attack aimed to pushed back Russians from Ukrainian territory by European nations? No.

Over a military counter-attack aimed at a regime change in Moscow where NATO troops are sitting 24km from the Russian capital?  Absolutely.  It's what Stalin would have done in 1941, had he had nukes. It's what Putin will do.

[Jacob]

Is Putin really going to nuke us all over Ukraine? I don't think so but then I am the idiot who thought he was too smart to invade Ukraine.

Over the support we give Ukraine? No.

Over a military counter-attack aimed to pushed back Russians from Ukrainian territory by European nations? No.

Over a military counter-attack aimed at a regime change in Moscow where NATO troops are sitting 24km from the Russian capital?  Absolutely.  It's what Stalin would have done in 1941, had he had nukes. It's what Putin will do.

The question is whether either of the two previous scenarios may in fact trigger a nuclear exchange in spite of the lack of sound logic to support it.

But then again, I don't think we can act based on the fear the Putin goes unhinged - except maybe to make contacts at the upper tiers and let senior leaders know that if they stop Putin from going nuclear over trivialities, we'll play ball.

[Valmy]

Over a military counter-attack aimed at a regime change in Moscow where NATO troops are sitting 24km from the Russian capital?  Absolutely.  It's what Stalin would have done in 1941, had he had nukes. It's what Putin will do.

Yeah but NATO would be totally insane to do something like that.

[Jacob]

You've probably all seen the news of the 64 km long column of Russian armoured vehicles, now ~25 km from the centre of Kyev.

Looks like the city fighting and the real atrocities are about to begin