Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[DGuller]

That cannot be right. Have you seen that video of them negotiating those rusty playground mazes? They are bad fucking ass!

The combat qualities of VDV may be lacking, but you have to admit, that VDV song video can qualify as a testosterone replacement therapy.  I've also seen a video from one of the VDV days where four VDV guys confronted a gay guy, and I have to say, VDV definitely had the upper hand in that encounter.

[Duque de Bragança]

I think Austria used a window of opportunity for joining EU. The post-WW2 contract stipulated that besides "everlasting neutrality" it was forbidden from forming any kind of union with Germany, including economic unions. The USSR (and to some extent the UK) pointed to this clause to prevent Austria from joining the EEC. They filed their application in 1989 when the political situation had changed.

Feels like a strong version of early reluctance of Maggie and Mitterrand (pro-Vichy past issues) about the eventual German reunification. 

[Josephus]

Possibly (I think that video I linked alluded to this), all those extra troops are needed to occupy and pacify the territory so far conquered. Which still sucks terribly for Russia, but doesn't necessarily mean that they have lost as many people as they are pulling into Ukraine from elsewhere.

Yup. It's kinda like Risk. You always gotta keep one army behind.

[celedhring]

Nothing like another unhinged Putin speech to deflate my hopes for a reasonable deal 

Kevin Rothrock Retweeted
Elena Chernenko
@ElenaChernenko
·
42m
Vladimir Putin: "Russian people will always be able to distinguish true patriots from traitors and just spit them out like a fly that accidentally flew into their mouth. Such a natural and necessary self-purification of the society will only strengthen our country." Uff

Dark stuff.

[Sheilbh]

You didn't really need NATO for that though. It was just the NATO nations did it just as they could jump in the Ukraine war if they wanted.

It was an alliance against Russia and their bloc searching for a purpose once Russia stopped being a credible threat - it alighted on "responsibility to protect", Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Libya. None of them quite worked.

A return of a credible Russian threat is reinvigorating it though.

Feels like a strong version of early reluctance of Maggie and Mitterrand (pro-Vichy past issues) about the eventual German reunification. 

Yeah Maggie was very anti-German (though a very big fan and got on very well with Helmut Schmidt - I think she called himi the "only person I know more right wing than me" ) and really crazily opposed to German unification. It doesn't surprise me that she would have kicked up a fuss about Austria and Germany both being in the EEC.  Her slightly mad approach on this was, I think, probably a non-trivial factor in removing her from the leadership.

Separately I see Putin's been speaking (and taking a harder line on "demilitarisation"):

"The west doesn't even bother to hide the fact that its aim is to damage the entire Russian economy, every Russian," he said.

Yes.

RT
@RT_com
Russia state-affiliated media
BREAKING: Current events put an end to West's global political and economic domination – Putin

I suppose that's an interpretation

[Sheilbh]

Dark stuff.

Christ - yeah, on dark paths Russia might go down:

max seddon
@maxseddon
Putin: "They are trying to bet on a so-called fifth column, on traitors of the nation, on those who earn money here but live over there. And live there not just in a geographic sense, but in their minds and their consciousness which is that of slaves."
"I don't judge those with villas in Miami or the French Riviera. Or who can't get by without oysters or foie gras or so-called 'gender freedoms.' The problem is they mentally exist there, and not here, with our people, with Russia. They think this places them in a higher caste."

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think we're moving closer to a negotiated settlement; Putin's statements don't disabuse me of that because Putin has a role he believes (probably correctly) he has to fulfill to satisfy the expectations of the many Russian nationalists who support him. There is essentially no benefit for Putin making conciliatory statements, at least as far as his regime's standing in Russia goes.

However, Lavrov is entirely a creature of Putin, he does not have action independent of Putin. So, it is of course telling us something what Lavrov says. It doesn't seem unusual in a government like Putin's Russia you'd run things this way where there are substantive diplomatic moves going but the strong man leader continues to chest beat for public consumption.

[The Brain]

Yeah Putin seems to be preparing for a settlement.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Given all the fake things his supporters deliberately choose to believe, I don't even think a negotiated settlement ends up being that hard for Putin to sell. "We have inflicted great harm on the Nazis and they have entered into agreements to reform their ways and cease being a threat to Russia, since we are always concerned first and foremost with human rights, we enter into this cease-fire agreement as our goals have been met and we do not wish to see needless loss of civilian life." Basically writes itself. Remember his people are already deliberately ignoring reality, so accepting this narrative isn't hard.

[Jacob]

And it kind of makes sense to lash out against internal "enemies" after your foreign adventures ended up more humiliating than you'd like. It'll probably be a bad (even worse) time to be any kind of public identifiable minority in Russia in the next little while.

[Legbiter]

Personal survival is a win for Putin. Saddam had nothing to show for his Iran-Iraq war and the Kuwaiti invasion but he still declared victory. 

But he'll keep whatever chunks of Ukrainian territory his army holds in the east and south of Ukraine when this war ends. Kharkiv will probably declare a "People's Rebulic". Mariupol too if it falls in the next week or so.

[Sheilbh]

Maybe. I think it's interesting he conflates cosmopolitan liberals with oligarchs who aren't sufficiently "patriotic" as part of the same "fifth column".

The "enemies within" narrative might be a sign that he's willing to compromise externally. My suspicion is the talks and any "breakthroughs" are designed to give Russia time to re-stock and reinforce its frontlines after which they will escalate and Putin's preparing the ground for more domestic repression and isolation - particularly from any oligarchs stupid enough to try to dabble in politics.

But who knows and it may well be that he's moving to a negotiated settlement.

Edit: Basically I think we are possibly facing something between Russia as a more developed and lethal North Korea and a return to full Brezhnevite isolation - does Putin have an Andropov who's actually interested in reality, or will they just keep pushing and believing what they choose to believe. And when does the reality of body bags and the wounded break through into widespread consciousness.

[Josquius]

Dark stuff.

Christ - yeah, on dark paths Russia might go down:

max seddon
@maxseddon
Putin: "They are trying to bet on a so-called fifth column, on traitors of the nation, on those who earn money here but live over there. And live there not just in a geographic sense, but in their minds and their consciousness which is that of slaves."
"I don't judge those with villas in Miami or the French Riviera. Or who can't get by without oysters or foie gras or so-called 'gender freedoms.' The problem is they mentally exist there, and not here, with our people, with Russia. They think this places them in a higher caste."

Is this Putin taking a swing at his own power base and aligning himself with zelynski?

[OttoVonBismarck]

Personal survival is a win for Putin. Saddam had nothing to show for his Iran-Iraq war and the Kuwaiti invasion but he still declared victory. 

But he'll keep whatever chunks of Ukrainian territory his army holds in the east and south of Ukraine when this war ends. Kharkiv will probably declare a "People's Rebulic". Mariupol too if it falls in the next week or so.

I don't think so. He may choose to keep that territory but if he does so then the war will not end. I don't think the war ends with his soldiers holding those chunks of Ukraine. I think it unlikely Zelensky stops fighting under those terms.

[Duque de Bragança]

Yeah Putin seems to be preparing for a settlement.

Villa in Miami or Nice, oysters, foie gras and non-binary toilets?
He did not mention ersatz sparkling "wine" though, soviet-garbonite-style...