Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Iormlund]

No matter how much I try, I still can't quite see how Putin thought this was a good idea, win or lose on the battlefield.

Hell, how many discussions have we had in this very forum about the obsolescence of NATO? He just rendered all of them moot with a stroke.

[Duque de Bragança]

Hybris, self-delusion are not incompatible with sociopathy.

[Threviel]

Sweden is in all probability going to send military materiel to Ukraine, it is a major sacred cow mercilessly slaughtered and there's not even any discussion in the press.

It seems that top of the list of requirements is NLAWS, which I learned today is designed and built by SAAB Bofors Dynamics and is British-Swedish. Should have saved my SAAB stock.

[Sheilbh]

Putin ordering Russia's nukes on a "special regime of duty" (and not for the first time this week Shoigu's looking a little uneasy). From an expert on Russia's deterrent:

Pavel Podvig
@russianforces
Yes, it was a very explicit nuclear threat: "the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history" https://twitter.com/russianforces/status/1496763846932971523?s=20&t=pJPsLTVpJ7SD8G5RBWk8XQ This all makes me nervous. Kremlin has no good off-ramps at this point and is looking at an existential threat to the current state

Also early signs of elite dissent/cracks around the top.

Separately, via Jeremy Cliffe, key measures announced by Scholz look good:

Key policy points from Scholz:

- over 2%/GDP for defence
- €100bn special fund for defence
- two new LNG terminals
- supplementary coal and gas reserves
- accelerated renewables roll-out
- new Bundeswehr deployments in NATO eastern flank states

[Sheilbh]

Ukrainian and Russian delegations to meet at a border post near Pripyat (Belorussian-Ukrainian border) for talks today.

[Syt]

The Guardian:

Putin orders Russia's nuclear deterrence forces on high alert, US attacks 'unacceptable' escalation

Russian president Vladimir Putin has ordered his military to put the country's nuclear deterrence forces on high alert in response to "aggressive statements" by NATO countries.

The order, which was announced by the TASS news agency, came at a meeting between Putin, defence minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia Valery Gerasimov.

"Senior officials of the leading NATO countries also allow aggressive statements against our country, therefore I order the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff [of the Russian Armed Forces] to transfer the deterrence forces of the Russian army to a special mode of combat duty," Putin said in the statement, which was quoted by state-run TASS.

It is not immediately clear what the "special mode of combat duty" entailed. Putin has warned foreign countries not to interfere in his ongoing invasion of Ukraine, saying it could lead to "consequences they have never seen." He has positioned anti-air missiles and other advanced missile systems in Belarus and deployed his fleet to the Black Sea in an effort to prevent a western intervention in Ukraine.

The Russian invasion has left hundreds dead. Russia has launched missile strikes against buildings in Kyiv, Kharkiv and other major Ukrainian cities as it threatens an all-out assault not seen since the time of the second world war.

The US responded that this was an "unacceptable" escalation, US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said on Sunday.

"It means that President Putin is continuing to escalate this war in a manner that is totally unacceptable and we have to continue to stem his actions in the strongest possible way," Thomas-Greenfield said in interview with CBS "Face the Nation."

Comment thread:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350?s=20&t=osUn1C7HYne0cQvcAl0qnA

"This isn't the first time this week Shoigu has looked visibly uncomfortable at the orders he's taking from Putin"

[Syt]

Assessment by BBC:

[Maladict]

 

No way back for Putin, we can only hope for a palace revolt.

[Syt]

I deleted my post about Russia possibly using a false flag dirty bomb on themselves to justify escalation, because unsure how credible. There also may (or may not be) a call in Russia for medical personnel to prepare for a major emergency.

[mongers]

The Guardian:
Putin orders Russia's nuclear deterrence forces on high alert, US attacks 'unacceptable' escalation

Russian president Vladimir Putin has ordered his military to put the country's nuclear deterrence forces on high alert in response to "aggressive statements" by NATO countries.

"This isn't the first time this week Shoigu has looked visibly uncomfortable at the orders he's taking from Putin"

Time to open up the standby 'Third World War Thread' I started?

[mongers]

No way back for Putin, we can only hope for a palace revolt.

Yep, but it's a very slim chance.

[jimmy olsen]

Northern Kiev, Russian armored vehicle column annihilated

https://mobile.twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1497917802644008960

[Sheilbh]

I deleted my post about Russia possibly using a false flag dirty bomb on themselves to justify escalation, because unsure how credible. There also may (or may not be) a call in Russia for medical personnel to prepare for a major emergency.

That was from ITV's Russia correspondent, it seems legit - I think she said that it was possibly basically drafting available doctors/medics and was maybe a sign that Russian forces were facing fiercer resistance than expected.

I don't know about the dirty bomb but I do think the Russians are thinking of some sort of false flag just given Peskov's statements and warnings from the Ukrainian government about it. Again though I think false flags are tough when the other side keeps saying what they think you're planning.

I agree with that BBC analysis - and would add the meeting with Ukrainians today. It's both a threat/deterrent to NATO and also making clear to Ukraine that there is going to be a limit to western support because of that threat. I think the bigger worry is there are risks of this spiraling especially if Putin becomes more desperate.

No matter how much I try, I still can't quite see how Putin thought this was a good idea, win or lose on the battlefield.

I think it was hubris and arrogance. The only explanation I can have is that he thought it would be over very quicly - decapitation strategy, hit Kyiv quickly and create a puppet regime or partition. And if he'd achieved that in say a day or two I think it might have worked - I'm not sure it would've produced the shift in western attitudes, for example, Germany that it has. I think there probably would have been a temptation to normalise, like after 2014.

[Zanza]

No way back for Putin, we can only hope for a palace revolt.

Saddam Hussein stayed in power after losing in the Gulf War. 

[Maladict]

Northern Kiev, Russian armored vehicle column annihilated

https://mobile.twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1497917802644008960

Imagine that happening in your quiet, suburban street.