Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[viper37]

It's going to take several months to replace those men because the Russians have not gone to war footing. Meanwhile the Ukranians are mobilizing for total war and have mobilized hundreds of thousands of veterans in the last month.

Even if they're just light infantry, they have ATMS, manpads, drones, night vision gear, optics and most off all the will to fight. They are going to crush the Russians in the east.

Up 'til mid 1943, you could have said the Germans were winning.  They kept advancing, they suffered losses, but nothing significant.  Then the Allies started catching up, with production and manpower.

Ukraine is at max mobilisation.  They can't replace their losses.  Russia can replace it within months, as you say.

It's an embarassement, it's a setback, but it's not a defeat.  they'll dig up and wait for the Ukrainians to assault fortified positions.

Ukraine is nowhere near max mobilization, they had less than 200,000 men under arms when the invasion started. Just like Russia it obviously will take time for them to convert all 18-60 year old men who are sticking around into viable soldiers, but they haven't come anywhere close to max mobilization. Russia obviously has a manpower advantage, but in terms of like old war style "maximum mobilization" stuff, neither country is meaningfully close to that now.

they already called all men 18-60, and many 16 yo as weel as 65 joined the militias.  Many women have also volunteered.

Ukraine has no viable economy at the moment, it solely depends on foreign aid, and the possibility that that aid reaches the country.

Russia just called 135 000 more people to serve in its army.  Theoritically, to be used in Russia, but we know how Russian promises work.

The point is, Ukraine may have momentum right now in the North, but they are barely holding on in the South while the Russians are regrouping and "fortifying" themselves in the eastern part of the country already occupied.

I wouldn't call Russia's defeat right now.  This is very similar to Chechnya's 2nd war, same basic tactics used, captured Russian soldiers being offered to call their mothers, Russia retreating to a distance outside the city after catastrophic losses, etc, etc.  They they bombed the shit out of Grozny and other cities.  And the war became very ugly on both sides.

[viper37]

Yeah, Ukraine doesn't seem to be having manpower troubles. They're pretty much turning away volunteers it seems

https://www.vice.com/en/article/akv898/foreign-fighters-quit-ukraine

they're saying foreign volunteers quit because there is a lack of equipement and a lack of discipline, not because there are too many volunteers and Ukraine is turning them away.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah, Ukraine doesn't seem to be having manpower troubles. They're pretty much turning away volunteers it seems

https://www.vice.com/en/article/akv898/foreign-fighters-quit-ukraine

they're saying foreign volunteers quit because there is a lack of equipement and a lack of discipline, not because there are too many volunteers and Ukraine is turning them away.

If you've actually read the article (which based on some of your posts I am unclear on whether you can do that), it actually says both things. That some are quitting because they don't like the conditions i.e. low quality recruits, poor equipment, service commitment etc and that many are also being turned away. It mentions that Ukraine rethought the process after they rushed an early foreign unit into combat and it performed poorly, and are focusing more now on domestic recruitment.

[OttoVonBismarck]

It's going to take several months to replace those men because the Russians have not gone to war footing. Meanwhile the Ukranians are mobilizing for total war and have mobilized hundreds of thousands of veterans in the last month.

Even if they're just light infantry, they have ATMS, manpads, drones, night vision gear, optics and most off all the will to fight. They are going to crush the Russians in the east.

Up 'til mid 1943, you could have said the Germans were winning.  They kept advancing, they suffered losses, but nothing significant.  Then the Allies started catching up, with production and manpower.

Ukraine is at max mobilisation.  They can't replace their losses.  Russia can replace it within months, as you say.

It's an embarassement, it's a setback, but it's not a defeat.  they'll dig up and wait for the Ukrainians to assault fortified positions.

Ukraine is nowhere near max mobilization, they had less than 200,000 men under arms when the invasion started. Just like Russia it obviously will take time for them to convert all 18-60 year old men who are sticking around into viable soldiers, but they haven't come anywhere close to max mobilization. Russia obviously has a manpower advantage, but in terms of like old war style "maximum mobilization" stuff, neither country is meaningfully close to that now.

they already called all men 18-60, and many 16 yo as weel as 65 joined the militias.  Many women have also volunteered.

Ukraine has no viable economy at the moment, it solely depends on foreign aid, and the possibility that that aid reaches the country.

Russia just called 135 000 more people to serve in its army.  Theoritically, to be used in Russia, but we know how Russian promises work.

The point is, Ukraine may have momentum right now in the North, but they are barely holding on in the South while the Russians are regrouping and "fortifying" themselves in the eastern part of the country already occupied.

I wouldn't call Russia's defeat right now.  This is very similar to Chechnya's 2nd war, same basic tactics used, captured Russian soldiers being offered to call their mothers, Russia retreating to a distance outside the city after catastrophic losses, etc, etc.  They they bombed the shit out of Grozny and other cities.  And the war became very ugly on both sides.

They prohibited males between 18 and 60 leaving the country and have asked people to join up and fight. They have not come remotely close to full mobilization. Full mobilization would mean every military age and capable male is in the military or training to be, they have likely processed less than 100,000 new recruits since the war started. That is nothing approaching their manpower limits.

[Razgovory]

While the full conquest of Ukraine is probably ruled out the Russians can still turn the tide in Eastern Ukraine.  The Ukrainians will probably divert forces from the north to stop the Russian advance in the Donbass and that force can still be defeated in the field.

[Sheilbh]

It is really very grim.

Get Ukraine tanks, anti-aircraft defences, artillery, and aircraft now.

Yes - and domestically we need to take steps to ensure that the current sanctions can last for the long term (especially in Europe). I also think that there was debate over new/tighter sanctions but they were held off because there was a division between whether they should be imposed now or held in reserve in case there was another escalation - my view is this is an escalation so we need to impose those new sanctions now (although obviously it's actually just uncovering an escalation that happened a long time ago and has been present in this war from day one - and in every war involving Russia in the last 30 years).

[The Minsky Moment]

This is very similar to Chechnya's 2nd war,

If that's true, Russia is screwed because Ukraine is 30-40 times bigger and has massive western aid and assistance backing it.  Russia and its military can't sustain dozens of Chechnyas.

Fact is Russia lost the war last month.  Only question is how many Russian soldiers and Ukrainian civilians will have to die pointlessly before Putin accepts that reality.

[mongers]

This is very similar to Chechnya's 2nd war,

If that's true, Russia is screwed because Ukraine is 30-40 times bigger and has massive western aid and assistance backing it.  Russia and its military can't sustain dozens of Chechnyas.

Fact is Russia lost the war last month.  Only question is how many Russian soldiers and Ukrainian civilians will have to die pointlessly before Putin accepts that reality.

I had compared this war to aspects of the Iran-Iraq war, but maybe it'll end up having more similarities with the Polish-Soviet war of 1919-20? 

[PDH]

The Battle of Warsaw is, in some ways, similar to the Battle of Kyiv.  A great "right hook" that overruns supply lines, a defense based on a strongpoint, and eventually the realization by the attackers that their position has become untenable that leads to a rout/very hasty retreat.

Given the manpower and equipment losses, I suspect the units involved will need some time to recover (as I said above).  Also, bear in mind that at least a good proportion of units in the North were regulars, paratroops, and tank units - those contract (regular) soldiers will be harder to replace no matter what.  I would guess that the Ukrainians could move some forces to the South and East while still guarding the Belarus Front soon.

[Legbiter]

Given the manpower and equipment losses, I suspect the units involved will need some time to recover (as I said above).

The new Russian counterattack will bring the situation under control.

[DGuller]

This is very similar to Chechnya's 2nd war,

If that's true, Russia is screwed because Ukraine is 30-40 times bigger and has massive western aid and assistance backing it.  Russia and its military can't sustain dozens of Chechnyas.

Fact is Russia lost the war last month.  Only question is how many Russian soldiers and Ukrainian civilians will have to die pointlessly before Putin accepts that reality.

It's also not clear how much of a victory the second Chechnya War was for Russia.  It was definitely a victory for Kadyrovs and a loss for non-Kadyrov Chechens, but where Russia wound up is up for debate.

[viper37]

This is very similar to Chechnya's 2nd war,

If that's true, Russia is screwed because Ukraine is 30-40 times bigger and has massive western aid and assistance backing it.  Russia and its military can't sustain dozens of Chechnyas.

Fact is Russia lost the war last month.  Only question is how many Russian soldiers and Ukrainian civilians will have to die pointlessly before Putin accepts that reality.

They can't overwhelm Ukraine and capture Kyiv, I'll grant you that.

However, they are not beaten yet, they can still hold to their pre-war
territories and as we see, they can still destroy cities and kill a lot of people while retreating.

[Razgovory]

We need to really consider brining Ukrainian recruits into NATO countries and train them on American equipment.  Let them come back with a brigade of Abrams and Bradleys.

[Threviel]

I made the mistake of going to twitter. God fucking damn, it's so grim what the orcs are doing.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I made the mistake of going to twitter. God fucking damn, it's so grim what the orcs are doing.

"The Russians are coming!" has, afaik, always had that connotation.
Their way of waging war is basically one big warcrime/crime against humanity.
Which is one of the reasons their western supporters (left or right) who live comfy lives under the US nuclear umbrella are so effing annoying.