Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[celedhring]

After a Turkish cargo ship was hit by a Russian missile yesterday, today a Moldovan chemical tanker was hit 12 miles off Odessa, plus a Japanese one (under flag of Panama) that was anchored in the port of Pivdennyi to load grain.

Russian navy lives up to its traditions?

No fishermen yet.

[The Minsky Moment]

From a Swedish geopolitical perspective it's simple. We can join NATO now, we and Finland will be let in.

Or we can not join NATO, hoping that they will help us if shit hits the fan.

As OvB says, if Fin/Swe won't fight for Nato, why the fuck would Nato fight for us? By not joining we put ourselves at the mercy of Russia, totally and completely. We cannot defend ourself.

So it's simple, we must join Nato asap. Let's hope our politicians see it the same way.

It is now clear that Putin views the NATO alliance commitment as credible and that he fears direct confrontation with the alliance, that is implicit in his resistance to further expansion.  It is equally clear that he views nations outside the alliance as vulnerable and as fair game. 

[Berkut]

I think this kind of consideration is very much missing the forest for the trees.

I'd say the opposite. I think Russia Today is an easy target that has minimal impact in the real world. We never shut down the Morning Star, the Daily Worker or any of the USSR-funded propaganda papers during the cold war because they didn't matter.

Then don't shut down RT because it doesn't matter.

But don't not shut them down because we are afraid of what they will do in response. That is exactly playing THEIR game.

I think having western journalists in Russia is important and, from a UK perspective, the BBC presence there is essential in supporting the Russian and Ukrainian language World Service (there are plans to expand this to other languages in Russia).

If it is important and it helps us, then Russia will kick them out if they decide it is a net negative to them to have them there. They won't not kick them out because they are afraid we will respond in kind.

In the UK RT's viewership is about 80,000 a day but the average viewer will watch for less than one minute which suggests they come across it while flicking - in the Guardian's phrase, "an audience comparable with an obscure satellite film channel." By contrast from a UK perspective I think the benefit of BBC (and other UK) journalists in Russia and the BBC Russian and Ukrainian language World Service vastly outweighs that.

It's similar to social media platforms - I think there's a stronger argument for getting them to stop working Russia and I think Russia's propaganda has been far more successful through that avenue than RT. But I'm aware the Russian state censor is right now imposing restrictions on access to Facebook which makes me inclined to think it's probably better keeping them open.

Wait, you mean the Russian state censor is making decisions absent caring about what we might do in response? You don't say!

[Berkut]

Apparently, Russia is preparing sharp counter sanctions in response to the sanctions being levied on the country.

I can't wait to see what they are. Hopefully they'll hurt the Russian economy further. And if they hurt the West, that's fine too as it will only underscore the need to disentangle ourselves from Russia and accelerate the process.

Indeed!

Of course they will respond.

Worrying about them responding is like someone saying "Hey, we better not invade North Africa! If we do, why, the Germans might invade Malta!"

That isn't how this is going to work, or rather, that is how this very much is NOT going to work.

[Admiral Yi]

Does anyone else detect a whiff of farce to this war?  Meant to intimidate and put on a show rather than kill and seize territory?

I've seen many reports of missile strikes but not so many of heavy ground fighting.  And certainly no camera footage of what I would call heavy fightiing.

[Sheilbh]

Then don't shut down RT because it doesn't matter.

But don't not shut them down because we are afraid of what they will do in response. That is exactly playing THEIR game.

[...]

If it is important and it helps us, then Russia will kick them out if they decide it is a net negative to them to have them there. They won't not kick them out because they are afraid we will respond in kind.

[...]

Wait, you mean the Russian state censor is making decisions absent caring about what we might do in response? You don't say!

Not sure I get your point.

It's not about fear but we know that the very obvious tit-for-tat for shutting down RT will be to expel Western journalists. So it's working out whether that's worth it. It's cost-benefit basically in an area where the retaliation is relatively obvious. I don't think the benefit outweighs the cost - not even close.

I assume the same logic applies for why there's been very limited expulsions of Russian spies serving in embassies in the West - and I have no doubt every Western intelligence agency has a list. But we know the immediate response would be to expel our spies and I assume leaders have decided it's not worth it. I expected a lot of diplomats being kicked out across Europe and the US over the course of this week which makes me think (as well as the generrally accurate intelligence the UK, US and France have been publicising) that we don't think the cost outweighs the benefit.

I'd look more at what are the moves we can make that have maximum impact rather than show we're not afraid. Not sure we're that either at the minute though.

[Eddie Teach]

The weird thing about Sweden at least is they're a freeloader whether in or out of NATO, there isn't really any situation in which the Swedish military would be useful in any conflict in which NATO was fighting.

You don't think they'd be useful in contesting the Baltic Sea and support Poland / Norway / Baltic nations?

Not Western Euro enough for Otto's white nationalist tendencies.

You don't get whiter than Swedes.

[Tamas]

Does anyone else detect a whiff of farce to this war?  Meant to intimidate and put on a show rather than kill and seize territory?

I've seen many reports of missile strikes but not so many of heavy ground fighting.  And certainly no camera footage of what I would call heavy fightiing.

Disagree heavily. If the (initial) Russian offensive fails, the usual reflex of people of thinking what unfolded was EXACTLY how Putin intended it will kick in. It should be resisted. I don't think you prepare such a huge multi-angle offensive, drop bloody airmobile units next to Kiev on Day 1, and then expect to be still not at the capital at the end of Day 2.

Probably Russia will still win at the end but I think their plans have been a shambles. Pre-invasion thanks to the Western anti-disinformation campaign, and post-invasion to a likely combination of Ukrainian defense and low Russian morale.

[Jacob]

Does anyone else detect a whiff of farce to this war?  Meant to intimidate and put on a show rather than kill and seize territory?

I've seen many reports of missile strikes but not so many of heavy ground fighting.  And certainly no camera footage of what I would call heavy fightiing.

I think they expected a quick strike combining surgical precision and overwhelming force, followed by a collapse. It doesn't seem to be happening super rapidly, but it's still early.

The Russians are allegedly in Kiev now, or at least the outskirts. Let's see how that develops.

It's certainly coming across as less decisive and impressive than your average American-led international coalition invasion. That said, we're also sitting on the other side of the propaganda line on this one, so there's some uncertainty in the comparison there.

[crazy canuck]

The weird thing about Sweden at least is they're a freeloader whether in or out of NATO, there isn't really any situation in which the Swedish military would be useful in any conflict in which NATO was fighting.

You don't think they'd be useful in contesting the Baltic Sea and support Poland / Norway / Baltic nations?

Not Western Euro enough for Otto's white nationalist tendencies.

You don't get whiter than Swedes.

You may have missed the point about them not being Western enough and Otto's fixation with the loss of Western Europeaness in the US.

[Sheilbh]

Does anyone else detect a whiff of farce to this war?  Meant to intimidate and put on a show rather than kill and seize territory?

I've seen many reports of missile strikes but not so many of heavy ground fighting.  And certainly no camera footage of what I would call heavy fightiing.

It's only day 2. This was Sumy last night (verified by the NYT):
https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1497054183597379589?s=20&t=urM61f-XLBatRdzjxxjxDg

I think that's part of it is most of the fighting is where the journalists are not: Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv. Things might shift now the Russians are approaching Kyiv. We're relying on social media footage for the most part and I've seen many Ukrainian journalists repeatedly share the message that people shouldn't post content with Ukrainian forces in it because Russia could use that - by contrast the MoD is explicitly asking for videos of Russian equipment from citizens. I keep wondering about Kharkiv because all the reports indicate very heavy fighting there - but I don't think I've seen any images or footages from Kharkiv at all.

If the Russians are getting to Kyiv though I think that'll change - and I think the US now estimates that they've committed about half their forces.

And Jake's point.

The one thing that seems incredibly surprising - and an indicator of perhaps how much hubris was in the Kremlin at the start of this is that from what I've read they wipe out the Ukrainian Air Force on day one. From what I've read they're still fighing and the skies are contested, Russia hasn't yet achieved the dominance that I think everyone expected immediately.

[mongers]

Does anyone else detect a whiff of farce to this war?  Meant to intimidate and put on a show rather than kill and seize territory?

I've seen many reports of missile strikes but not so many of heavy ground fighting.  And certainly no camera footage of what I would call heavy fightiing.

I think that in large part there aren't any embedded professional media with military either Russian or Ukrainian.

Obviously Russia want to keep full control of news output and heavy fighting won't fit in with their narrative of them as anti-fascist liberators.

The Ukraine seems to allow any Western media to wonder around where they want, but there doesn't appear to be any close relationships built eg this news crew is staying in situ with that Ukrainian unit for the duration.
And it's different to the Gulf war/Iraq in that it'll be a stationary unit, not the exciting moving attack story which the networks loved during those Iraq wars.

[DGuller]

Is this really the right thread for stalking posters with bizarre vendettas?

[Sheilbh]

Disagree heavily. If the (initial) Russian offensive fails, the usual reflex of people of thinking what unfolded was EXACTLY how Putin intended it will kick in. It should be resisted. I don't think you prepare such a huge multi-angle offensive, drop bloody airmobile units next to Kiev on Day 1, and then expect to be still not at the capital at the end of Day 2.

Probably Russia will still win at the end but I think their plans have been a shambles. Pre-invasion thanks to the Western anti-disinformation campaign, and post-invasion to a likely combination of Ukrainian defense and low Russian morale.

Agree with all of this - and I think there's hubris. As I say my fear is that the surgical strike failed so they'll now move to "classic" Russian tactics

Although this thread by a war studies academic is interesting - although all conjecture on day 2 of a war:
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1497304143836454921

Sir Lawrence Freedman who's the dean of British war studies/strategy academia also posted an interesting sub-stack and today said he was thinking a little of 1812 at the minute.

[Threviel]

There's no law of physics that prevents Swedish troops from leaving Swedish territory.

Swedish troops are right now in Mali and have also been fighting your war in Afghanistan thank you very much.