Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[mongers]

They maybe brave, but I fear the city's defences haven't been thoroughly prepared, it seems very hasty.

[KRonn]

I've been seeing reports of Putin not doing well. Some leaders of other countries saying he's changed, seems darker, more intense, perhaps depressed. The speeches he's given were pretty dark, seemed to be threatening using nukes if the West gets too involved. Hearing now that he's deathly afraid of Covid to an unhinged degree. I wonder how valid this is, maybe this is propaganda but hearing it from several sources as above.

[Sheilbh]

CNN is reporting that Russian military are broadcasting that if Ukrainian soldiers don't surrender they will kill their families.

[KRonn]

This is just me and I've no expertise in this, but those seem to me to be the likely possibilities - and I don't see either working well for Putin or the Russian regime. I don't think this is a popular war and I can't see a way he can turn it into one. It looks likely that Russia will suffer quite a lot of casualties regardless and it's just if he is also willing to commit absolutely heinous crimes against a "sibling people". I think hubris and a catastrophically wrong reading of Ukraine are big factors now - I think they expected collapse, chaos and that all of Ukraine was basically a, in Putin's phrase, "colony run by a puppet regime" with no legitimacy.

Yeah.

That was one of the things I had weighing against an invasion (and similarly have weighing against a PRC attack on Taiwan). If Putin has a bad war, that could be the biggest threat to maintaining his grip on power.

How does he get out of this without egg on his face (and without obvious blood on his hands in a way that makes him seem not like a strong man, but like a fratricidal monster)?

Ukrainians seem to be fighting harder, putting up more resistance, than perhaps was expected by many, probably including Putin. Putin and Zelensky are talking about having talks. Then Russia is said to be assaulting Kyiv tonight and if the city can hold out maybe that'll help the talks go forward. The talks could go anywhere or nowhere but if Putin is getting worried about the war's progress it could give him an out with some conditions and less loss of face.

[saskganesh]

I am going to guess that Russia will make large territorial advances, then get bogged down in urban combat. while having to deal with pernicious rural insurgents. So they will "win"and then lose. As long as the Ukrainians want to fight, and as long as they get financial and material support from the West...

Doomsday escalation risk changes this. A better way to end this war may also be to find ways to aid the Russian anti-war opps and create a climate of public opinion so large so that when  Czar Putin meets his Brutus, Brutus has cover. And the nuclear codes.

Assuming there is no Anthony around to ruin everything.

[mongers]

I am going to guess that Russia will make large territorial advances, then get bogged down in urban combat. while having to deal with pernicious rural insurgents. So they will "win"and then lose. As long as the Ukrainians want to fight, and as long as they get financial and material support from the West...

Doomsday escalation risk changes this. A better way to end this war may also be to find ways to aid the Russian anti-war opps and create a climate of public opinion so large so that when  Czar Putin meets his Brutus, Brutus has cover. And the nuclear codes.

Assuming there is no Anthony around to ruin everything.

Well yes that's a big risk, but also a little hope, I say little because I'm not sure how many brave souls are left in Moscow to pull the trigger on him.

[KRonn]

Putin has also been talking about the same stuff happening to ethnic Russians in the Baltic states along the same lines of reasoning he used to attack Ukraine. No surprise, he's been talking about that for some years. Those are NATO members as we know and if he goes after them, even just annexing regions, then it gets nasty. I assume that scenario depends on how things go in Ukraine and how committed with sanctions and other measures NATO nations are.

[mongers]

Putin has also been talking about the same stuff happening to ethnic Russians in the Baltic states along the same lines of reasoning he used to attack Ukraine. No surprise, he's been talking about that for some years. Those are NATO members as we know and if he goes after them, even just annexing regions, then it gets nasty. I assume that scenario depends on how things go in Ukraine and how committed with sanctions and other measures NATO nations are.

I think he just got bored, he has all the power in the world, he's in total control of Russia; so why have all that power if you don't do something with it?

I'd guess, given his warped historical musings, he now wants to mark out his place in history with this gamble.

If, and that's a big if, if he succeeds in Ukraine at no matter what cost, I can see him doubling down on his gamble and going after those Baltic states, possibly within this year. After all NATO defences are only going to get stronger.

[mongers]

No surprise that Russia vetoed the American-Albanian UN security council resolution condemning the invasion.

And predictably China abstained, but I'm very disappointed that India also did that, what with India being the unofficial leader of the non-aligned movement for many years, especially as Ukraine is a non-aligned country.

But what the hell is the UAE doing by abstaining, aren't they a US and Western ally and also as a small country, possibly one day being vulnerable to machinations of it's two large neighbours?

[Eddie Teach]

Maybe they figure they can buy more mercs than Saudi?

[KRonn]

Yeah, I was surprised with India too. Good point about the UAE as a smaller nation which has some fears about Iran, as do the Saudis and others in the region.

[Admiral Yi]

India might be thinking about Punjab somehow.

[Jacob]

Apparently India relies on Russian fertilizer exports to feed its population...

Not sure if that's sufficient explanation, or if it's some sort of non-aligned calculus or something.

[Admiral Yi]

FYI mongers, Economist (old one) had an article about grain. 

I learned that Ukraine and Russia between them account for 30% of wheat exports.

A bit of a shocker to me, as I'm old enough to remember Jimmy C selling the Russkies wheat to keep them from starving.

[Jacob]

We had a bit of a chat about that earlier in the thread - about how the invasion could trigger a pretty serious increase in food prices, which in turn could trigger instability in a number of other countries across the world relying on imported Russian or Ukrainian grain to feed their populations.