Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[DGuller]

Yeah I don't think Putin will learn as many US state secrets as the last meeting with the POTUS.

There aren't that many left. 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Glad that settled down, I wonder if it could be considered that Biden 'faced him down'?

Maybe - but Biden did agree to a one-on-one summit with Putin which is normally considered a win for Putin.

A US president meeting the leader of a great power when there is something to talk about seems business as usual. How is that a win for Putin?

depends on how long Biden will look into Putin's eyes I guess

[KRonn]

I'm with Berkut here, sometimes hedging or qualification is a betrayal, specifically of the side at whose expense you're hedging. 

Unfortunately we're taught a catastrophically bad lesson of false equivalence starting in kindergarten, where any fight is always presumed to be the fault of both parties.  Sometimes it is the case that one kid is an asshole and the other kid is guilty only of not wanting to be pummeled.  The second kid, in addition to probably not being on the winning side of the fight, is then further victimized by the well-meaning but poorly-thinking adults who can't be bothered to figure out the particulars of the situations they're dealing with, and would rather fall back on trite nonsense.

Agreed. Russia has always been the aggressor here. They want a large piece of eastern Ukraine, as is obvious. That's a rich industrial and mining area of Ukraine. Russians have been stoking this fire for a long time, supporting or moving in Russian separatists to foment more and more unrest, paving the way for Russia to move in to support their fellow Russians! I don't think this will be as easy as taking Crimea. Militarily Russia has a big edge but it'll be politically messy and likely with an ugly occupation and resistance. I've been wondering what will determine when (or if?) Russia will act?

[Tonitrus]

I think that certainly the initial move on Crimea was a matter of prestige/regaining something they felt was very "Russian" and was lost.  Creating the Donbass situation in the east was basically a repeat of their Georgia maneuver.  Yanukovych's abrupt fall was probably not expected by Putin/Russia, and they had to move quickly to put a freeze on things...so they muddy up the territorial/political integrity of the target country in such a way that makes it impossible, by being politically unpalatable, for them to gravitate more towards the West (because the EU/NATO would never a take on a partly-"occupied", unsettled nation).  Essentially "stopping the clock" on any potential movement towards the protection of Western alliances or political unions.

That's in the short term.  In the long term, Russia probably would like to get the entirety of the Ukraine/Belarus back...if not as a formal part of Russia, then at the very least in a similar political union as was under the USSR.

The biggest danger is if Putin starts to feel like Hitler and get the idea that only he can get it done, and that he doesn't have much time left.  The problem with being an authoritarian leader that is not a king, is that it is too dangerous to ever give up power...and you can never have any real certainty about your succession.

[KRonn]

Tonitrus, good summary. It almost seems like Belarus would be more likely to become more a part of Russia, or at least like the EU nations as you say. I'm a bit surprised that we don't hear more about it, though maybe there are things happening there too but it doesn't find its way in the news so much here.

[grumbler]

Glad that settled down, I wonder if it could be considered that Biden 'faced him down'?

Maybe - but Biden did agree to a one-on-one summit with Putin which is normally considered a win for Putin.

Ah, but unlike the previous POTUS Biden speaks and understands English.

Yeah I don't think Putin will learn as many US state secrets as the last meeting with the POTUS.

What Trump gave away were Israeli state secrets, not US ones.

[Tamas]

The biggest danger is if Putin starts to feel like Hitler and get the idea that only he can get it done, and that he doesn't have much time left.  The problem with being an authoritarian leader that is not a king, is that it is too dangerous to ever give up power...and you can never have any real certainty about your succession.

I thinj it was the Economist which highlighted not too long ago that Putin (probably deliberately) have not raised up an apparent successor, so when he dies, all bets are off. I imagine as he grows older the manuevering gathers pace and his growing paranoia because of this has a lot to do with the increasingly oppressive methods at home. I think this whole troop concentration thing was to switch internal focus away from the unrest, hoping Ukraine would take the bait and do something foolish.

[Jacob]

Yeah, the lack of an heir apparent is going to be a potential pitfall in Russia. If Xi continues in his current path, China could have the same issue though Xi is younger.

[mongers]

Fighting between border guards and armed residences in the Baktun valley on the Tajik-Kirgiz boder, Wednesday and Thursday; time for Russian 'peace-keepers' to step in?

By the way that border area is a real cartographic mess, even before you add in a third former Soviet republic. 

[mongers]

Lots of nervous chatter about a possible Russian strike into the Ukraine.   

[Habbaku]

Lots of nervous chatter about a possible Russian strike into the Ukraine.   

Are you joining them, sympathizer?

[KRonn]

Lots of nervous chatter about a possible Russian strike into the Ukraine.   

From what I've read in the past, for years Russia has been slowly infiltrating to try and gain more status in the eastern areas of Ukraine among the existing Russian population there. I think it's just a matter of time before Russia moves in forcefully, or maybe they're taking their time with politically usurping the area and taking over.

[mongers]

Lots of nervous chatter about a possible Russian strike into the Ukraine.   

From what I've read in the past, for years Russia has been slowly infiltrating to try and gain more status in the eastern areas of Ukraine among the existing Russian population there. I think it's just a matter of time before Russia moves in forcefully, or maybe they're taking their time with politically usurping the area and taking over.

Well the full tank parks are still on the border, waiting or maybe about to be marched back down that hill if Putin gets some traction with Biden and/or the EU?

[Jacob]

Looks like the Russians are moving significant military assets towards Ukraine, and this time they seem to be trying to be a little more discreet rather than making a show of it.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-military-buildup-1.6262035

[Habbaku]

Looks like the Russians are moving significant military assets towards the Ukraine, and this time they seem to be trying to be a little more discreet rather than making a show of it.