Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Brain]

Yeah it's not like Germany fell and landed on Russian gas.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

So Germany *wants* to be lackies to Putin?

Their Chancellor of the 00s switched the whole country over to Russian gas then went on to be employed by Gazprom, if that answers your question.

and closing all the nuclear powerplants doesn't help either because that gas (in sofar as they aren't burning coal) is Russian too.

[Duque de Bragança]

So Germany *wants* to be lackies to Putin?

Their Chancellor of the 00s switched the whole country over to Russian gas then went on to be employed by Gazprom, if that answers your question.

Well, he had to keep his Green coalition partners happy, with their vehement opposition to nuclear, coal being a lesser evil than nuclear judging by how their opposition to those two energy sources.

However, some of the blame has to fall on Merkel who, worried than tsunamis and earthquakes could be as dramatic as in Japan following the Fukushima disaster, reverted to the gas and coal policy of Schröder, following a temporary nuclear reversal by the CDU.

[Sheilbh]

Merkel's definitely partly to blame - she has been in office for the last sixteen years after all

However as I say I think there is commercial interest but also an ideological desire/belief to not cut lines of communication or draw divisions in the world and that keeping things open is a very important policy. Obviously it does overlap with commercial interests, but for most countries I'd say base and noble interests tend to align in a perfect venn.

[Berkut]

Merkel's definitely partly to blame - she has been in office for the last sixteen years after all

However as I say I think there is commercial interest but also an ideological desire/belief to not cut lines of communication or draw divisions in the world and that keeping things open is a very important policy. Obviously it does overlap with commercial interests, but for most countries I'd say base and noble interests tend to align in a perfect venn.

So Germany is threatening to cut lines of communication with the US and draw divisions with the US if the US doesn't agree to let Russia dictate German energy policy in an effort to not cut lines of communication with Valdimir Putin and protect against a division with Moscow?

[Sheilbh]

But it isn't making that threat or having to make that threat. Biden's done a deal with Germany that largely means the US is lifting its objections to Nordstream 2 to go ahead - there's pushback against that in Congress. There's been no threat, no blow-up rows about it despite constant disapproval from the US (and Germany's European allies) but I think the gamble that has probably paid off is that if you build the pipeline, Washington isn't going to cut ties with Germany.

And they've been proven right. I am less sure about the effect on trust of Germany's other European partners (especially Poland and the Baltic states) - but that matters less to Germany because, unlike France, it's not aspiring to European strategic autonomy so this just deepens the importance of/reliance on NATO because Poland and the Baltics don't feel they can rely on Europe so NATO is crucial for them (which is also something Germany broadly supports).

It might be a different question if at an earlier stage Washington had made clear that they viewed it as seriously as Warsaw and that Germany proceeding with this would lead to a rupture. Given how profoundly Atlanticist the German foreign policy elite, maybe that would have changed things. But who knows, that didn't happen.

[Berkut]

The threat was already made. Many times. Biden appears to be backing down to it and letting Germany whore itself out to Russia.

Germany correctly knew that the US would be the adult in the room, and it worked to have their tantrum at not being able to cozy up with Vladimir.

The US should just let them at it. "Atlanticist" my ass. If Germany thinks they can handle Russia, let them. They can be in charge of Eastern European security, and more power to them.


It won't end well though. Germany will become another Russian puppet. The only upside to this seems to be some particular politicians getting rich joining the Putin oligarchy. It won't provide more energy for Germany, or better prices for Germans.


It will pour money into the Russian oligarchy though. I am sure they are happy to share some of that.

[Berkut]

The more I read about Nord 2, the more I cannot see a single upside to this for anyone other then Putin, his oligarchy, and those he has bought.

It cannot be good for Europe. It cannot be good for Germany. And it certainly cannot be good for Eastern Europe, and really, seriously fucks Ukraine every which way.

[Tamas]

The more I read about Nord 2, the more I cannot see a single upside to this for anyone other then Putin, his oligarchy, and those he has bought.

It cannot be good for Europe. It cannot be good for Germany. And it certainly cannot be good for Eastern Europe, and really, seriously fucks Ukraine every which way.

To be fair, Ukraine is Russia Light, or rather, what Russia would be if one of the players didn't manage hegemony over the rest of the oligarchs. I can perfectly understand why Germany -if they have no choice but to buy gas from Russia- would want to remove Ukraine as a dependency and as an extra unstable actor to keep happy so their power plants can continue working.

If you want to avoid rocking your internal political boat (eg. not pushing for a return to nuclear power) then rationalising your external situation around your internal status quo seems logical. Of course it is almost certainly a short-sighted and strategically terrible option and position to take, but it probably does go beyond simple corruption (of which there's plenty around this as well, no doubt).

[Berkut]

The more I read about Nord 2, the more I cannot see a single upside to this for anyone other then Putin, his oligarchy, and those he has bought.

It cannot be good for Europe. It cannot be good for Germany. And it certainly cannot be good for Eastern Europe, and really, seriously fucks Ukraine every which way.

To be fair, Ukraine is Russia Light, or rather, what Russia would be if one of the players didn't manage hegemony over the rest of the oligarchs. I can perfectly understand why Germany -if they have no choice but to buy gas from Russia- would want to remove Ukraine as a dependency and as an extra unstable actor to keep happy so their power plants can continue working.

Under what credible scenario is a pipeline running through Ukraine a risk to Germany though? The *only* scenario where that is a risk is the one where Russia has created a crisis! So taking Ukraine out of that picture doesn't make less risk, it creates more. Ukraine is actually a buffer against the risk of relying on Russia for their gas. Which, of course, is exactly why Russia wants to go around Ukraine and Poland. It removes a check on their ability to weaponize energy delivery to Germany. The idea that this can be alleviated by asking them super nicely to not weaponize energy delivery is some "Peace in our time!" level idiocy.

It's like you live next to a gangster, and have agreed to not wear body armor any more in return for them agreeing not to shoot you. If they did not want to threaten to shoot you, why would they care if you wear body armor?

If you want to avoid rocking your internal political boat (eg. not pushing for a return to nuclear power) then rationalising your external situation around your internal status quo seems logical. Of course it is almost certainly a short-sighted and strategically terrible option and position to take, but it probably does go beyond simple corruption (of which there's plenty around this as well, no doubt).

There is nothing logical about this. The long and medium term downside is so obvious and extreme I don't think there is any rational explanation beyond simple corruption.

Trying to rationalize why giving Russia....sorry, not Russia - there is no "Russia" as a negotiating entity here...Vladimir Putin *more* power and control over your vital energy infrastructure is a fools errand.

[Valmy]

Yeah I don't get this. Germany and the rest of Europe should be building up protections against the corrupt and dangerous Putin regime. This is just going to endanger themselves moving forward for little or no gain.

But hey knock yourselves out Germany. It's your country.

[The Brain]

Er... I don't know if you guys have noticed, but European countries don't always act very intelligently.

[Josquius]

Have to say I agree with Tamas.
Ideally they shouldn't be reliant on Russia at all. They should be investing heavily into cutting the cord.
But I don't see why it matters whether the pipe to Russia is direct or via Ukraine. Thats just a small extra layer of unreliability in the latter.

[Sheilbh]

Have to say I agree with Tamas.
Ideally they shouldn't be reliant on Russia at all. They should be investing heavily into cutting the cord.
But I don't see why it matters whether the pipe to Russia is direct or via Ukraine. Thats just a small extra layer of unreliability in the latter.

It allows Russia to carry on supplying Western Europe while using gas as a weapon over Ukraine (and other Eastern European countries such as Poland) that will still be supplied via Ukraine.

I think there would probably be less concern over it if Ukraine or Poland was confident that Germany and Western Europe would take that seriously in a NATO style way (at least for Poland which is an EU member state). I don't think they have that confidence and guess that their view would be that Russia keeps the taps on for Germany etc, turns them off for Russia and Poland and that there'd be calls from Western capitals for "dialogue" and "compromise".

[mongers]

More sabre rattling from the Kremlin, increased ceasefire infractions reported; I guess these are going to reach a crescendo and the point at which Putin tries to extract concessions from the EU and Ukraine.