Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Zoupa]

You can zoom out and make the russian fortification lines appear in the layers options, top right corner.

Ukraine is nowhere near the last line. They've barely passed the 1st, and in very narrow sections only.

[Legbiter]

I think the Ukrainians are in a pretty comfy rhythm right now doing what they love. Compare the Black Sea Fleet right now vs. the beginning of this month for instance. But yes every major piece of military aid is always a year behind it feels, like fighter jets for instance and I worry about inadequate supply of basics like ammo and artillery. Watching Ukrainian units crowdfund tourniquets, vehicles and drones on twitter is also infuriating. I worry about insufficient production lines in the West as well.  

[grumbler]

You can zoom out and make the russian fortification lines appear in the layers options, top right corner.

Ukraine is nowhere near the last line. They've barely passed the 1st, and in very narrow sections only.

They've broken through the first line on a broad front, and the second in places.

[Josquius]

I artillery. Take with a pinch of salt, from a random telegram analyst,etc...

RUSSIA'S ARTILLERY PROBLEM

In the past three months Russia has lost almost 3,000 artillery pieces. Russians are moaning about the lack of artillery support. It isn't just about ammunition.
The issues now are threefold. Physical complete loss by drone or artillery is one. Lack of ammo is indeed another. It's not so much quantity of ammo not being available, but not being able to have it supplied due to interdiction.
The last is possibly even more significant. They have run out of barrels for their guns.
Barrels have a calculated lifespan based on rounds fired. The speed at which those rounds are fired is also critically important because the heat generated increases wear - especially on rifled barrels which the Russians do have. It was one of the reasons that newer versions of western tanks went to smooth bore, along with the multiple variations in shell types that could be used.
Russian forces and to be fair Ukrainians too, have became highly inclined to fire far to much far to quickly. I've seen with my own eyes a PzH2000 in use and the Germans (don't be surprised they have so many rules!) recommend only firing it six times on one fast burst every 20 minutes to let the barrel cool. That's not what the Ukrainians do! They bang out multiple
6 shell barrages as fast as they can until they can't any more.
The Russians do the same and the result is firstly increasing inaccurate fire as the barrel droops (yes they start to drop - even a fraction of a millimetre magnified over distance turns to meters). If they keep going,  eventually the barrel will burst.
You can't fix a barrel. All you can do is melt it down and recast it as a new one.
Russia is suffering a chronic lack of barrels. They've apparently lost the capability to mass produce them - it's a heavy industry practice and requires a lot of space, metallurgical expertise and precision engineering. They just don't have enough of that capacity to produce them at a major industrial level. Production is said to be as low as 2 per week.
To get around this they have ransacked their reserves and stored stock- some of it over 50 years old. The only requirement is that it's got at least 50% of its life left, approximately.
Well now it seems they've used them up too and there's nothing viable left.
The result is that there is a massive retraction in available artillery pieces. What they have they can't service and that's if it survives Ukrainian drone and counter battery fire.
If there is anything Russia needs more from North Korea, it's new field artillery.
So the fact that the war has gone on so long - three days remember and it was all meant to be over, nobody ever imagined these problems would crop up.
It's also been a problem
for Ukraine in terms of wear but a concerted effort to produce barrels has been underway since
it was identified back last year. The west realised it would be an issue and had no reserves to call on, so new was the only choice. They're not mass produced in quite the numbers you'd call ideal by any one manufacturer, but several working together have managed to sustain supply - just. That may not be so if the Slovakian elections return the pro-Russian party to power this weekend, and Slovakia cuts off aid to Ukraine.
In conclusion it's a problem for both sides. But it's a seriously bad one for Russia because its whole military philosophy is based on the massive use of heavy artillery.

Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!

I think that's it for the counteroffensive. Lines haven't moved really and russia is doing increased air strikes all over the advance which has effectively broken the momentum.

Either there's an unlikely collapse of russian morale, or we'll have to wait for F-16 or front line air defense to have any movement of the lines.

Source on this?
I've heard the opposite. Ukraine is showing signs of breaking through and the Russian air force is staying quiet, afraid of Ukrainian anti air.
Also Russia is fast running out of artillery y barrels.

Time will tell

https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/

IMO this is the best map out there. Look at the number of red dots compared to blue. Pay attention to the air strikes. You can also go back to the beginning of june and see how little terrain has changed. There is certainly no breakthrough in depth. Ukraine has attrited russian artillery, but it's nowhere near enough. No western country is scaling their artillery ammunition or mortar rounds to a scale that Ukraine needs.

This was all very avoidable if the west had been quicker.

I heard a view days ago in the midst of the attack that reporters including the map makers have been told to stay very quiet.
I've noticed the deep state map, usually showing daily updates no matter how small, will lately go a few days without an update and be very vague out of it.

I will say though that good news about this front was supposed to come out yesterday? The day before? And its been quiet.
I suspect things aren't going optimally but still on track.

[Syt]

[Josquius]

Morale does seem to be shifting online and analysts do seem to be saying thats it for the year's advances.
Wonder when we'll get the full story of what went on down Robotyne way.

It seems this year Russia actually took more territory than Ukraine did.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The west dropped the ball by not knowing where its balls were. Way too timid in the face of Russian threats. And doubly so if you take into account the russia bs that came out of that country during the last week.

[Grey Fox]

Russia is still losing artillery pieces at an unsustainable pace. On pace for 17 000 this year.

The Russian milblogger-sphere was finally chastised for publishing all the bad news and have shut up for bout 2 weeks now and since Ukrainian opsec is much better, we have no news.

South African are wired to be pro-russian it seems.

[Valmy]

It is really weird how unsympathetic some people are for people defending their own country.

And Zelensky should be doing everything he can for Ukraine, as that is his whole fucking job. Maybe Musk finds people actually doing their jobs instead of posting on social media all day a weird concept.

[HVC]

It is really weird how unsympathetic some people are for people defending their own country.

And Zelensky should be doing everything he can for Ukraine, as that is his whole fucking job. Maybe Musk finds people actually doing their jobs instead of posting on social media all day a weird concept.

He always seems to forget how many grants, subsidies, and government loans he's gotten for his companies.

[Barrister]

He always seems to forget how many grants, subsidies, and government loans he's gotten for his companies.

Yeah.  I'm a pretty pro-free-market guy, but both Tesla and Space X absolutely fucking depend on government subsidies and contracts.  Neither would have gone anywhere without pretty significant government intervention.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

He always seems to forget how many grants, subsidies, and government loans he's gotten for his companies.

Yeah.  I'm a pretty pro-free-market guy, but both Tesla and Space X absolutely fucking depend on government subsidies and contracts.  Neither would have gone anywhere without pretty significant government intervention.

might be a good reminder to allocate the subsidies his companies get to Ukraine.

[Legbiter]

And Zelensky should be doing everything he can for Ukraine, as that is his whole fucking job. Maybe Musk finds people actually doing their jobs instead of posting on social media all day a weird concept.

I wish he did not want to be an influencer and instead just focused on space stuff.

[Tamas]

I mean its enough to look at the names he has given his kids to know he is a fucking moron.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

And Zelensky should be doing everything he can for Ukraine, as that is his whole fucking job. Maybe Musk finds people actually doing their jobs instead of posting on social media all day a weird concept.

I wish he did not want to be an influencer and instead just focused on space stuff.

he'd be a better type of influencer that way, instead of this pro-russia weasily tripe