Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Crazy_Ivan80]

And apparently the demarche of the polish pm re weapons wasn't discussed according to the foreign minister.

[DGuller]

Strange movements around the Moscow hospital where the chechen leader is. Supposidely just to visit a random uncle.
Seems he might be on the brink or even gone.
I wonder what it means for Chechnya. Do they have it in them to rise again?

I've been burned with Russian medical dramas before, I'm not going to watch some Russian hospital for days hoping for something to happen.  There is also less of a chance of a body landing on you that way.  I'll wait for the funeral.

[Legbiter]

And apparently the demarche of the polish pm re weapons wasn't discussed according to the foreign minister.

There's an election in 3 weeks and PiS relies heavily on the rural vote. So they have to seem very tough on Ukrainian grain imports.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Strange movements around the Moscow hospital where the chechen leader is. Supposidely just to visit a random uncle.
Seems he might be on the brink or even gone.
I wonder what it means for Chechnya. Do they have it in them to rise again?

Latest news is that he tragically perished after falling out a window and getting blown up by a SAM.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Strange movements around the Moscow hospital where the chechen leader is. Supposidely just to visit a random uncle.
Seems he might be on the brink or even gone.
I wonder what it means for Chechnya. Do they have it in them to rise again?

Latest news is that he tragically perished after falling out a window and getting blown up by a SAM.

What air defense doing?
That air defense doing!

[Josquius]

Take with a pinch of salt given its random provenance of telegram but sounds like a reasonable analysis to me

From "The Analyst"

MASSIVE BATTLES AS ARMIES CLASH

Ukraine and Russia drove head on into each yesterday afternoon and this morning on the Robotyne salient as both began an offensive designed to displace the other.
Until yesterday afternoon there had been near silence - suddenly everything erupted.
The Russians went right at it, determined to stop the Ukrainians before they could make any meaningful advances.
Ukraine has been using counter battery fire to suppress the Russians from gaining any advantage from theirs. The fact remains that artillery is still painfully useful and dominant - largely because neither side has air superiority to clear the way.
Evidence of Russian SPG's being knocked out on their way from Tokmak.
Russians have been pushed back by the 47th  Brigade into northern Novopropivka. Russian VDV forces are being hammered.
Ukrainian mortar teams are said to be extremely active and successful.
Ukrainian drone troops have been exceptionally effective at chasing tanks, one T-90M was observed being hit no less than 5 times by a drone that just kept dropping RPG warhead bomblets onto it until it caused crippling engine damage that stopped it dead. There's a huge amount of OPSEC on both sides. More information will certainly come to light in the next few days.
Meanwhile Russian aircraft losses have continued to rise and nearly all self inflicted or drone strikes. As many as 12 fighters are understood to have been destroyed.
ATACMS - it's not going to happen. That's pretty much certain.
I do believe that the US military wants to send them IN PRINCIPLE, but the fact they have only a limited stockpile and it's the only missile the US army has with any range - or will have until later this decade is a big stumbling block. The ATACMS dates back to 1988 and hasn't been manufactured for several years. Its replacement is under contract but not yet deployed.  The Pacific tensions with the Koreas and Taiwan and China, weigh heavily on this and I honestly don't blame the US for holding back. German Taurus missiles are far more useful and valuable - and considerably less observable and interception proof than a ballistic ATACMS. What would be more useful is more M-1 Abrams and US supplied F-16's from their huge reserves.
Meanwhile, the front lines rage and it seems a decisive battle is underway.

Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!

🇺🇦 @ukraine_report 🇺🇦

It would explain the recent quiet - that a big battle is raging.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Imagery of leopards being active near verbove has been making rounds since yesterday or so iirc.

[Iormlund]

Sebastopol was also hit again, including the Fleet HQ.

[Jacob]

Hoping for the best.

[Josquius]

Weirdest thing I heard today is that apparently one of the peacekeepers killed in azerbaijan was a leader of the submarine forces.
Which.... Using the attack to conveniently chuck someone out of a window?
As what the hell would a sub commander be doing in the mountains?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

As what the hell would a sub commander be doing in the mountains?

Why not? It's already established that Russian surface ships make good submarines. Why wouldn't Russian submarines make good skis?

edit: several places have been mentioned that a small number of ATACMS will be released to Ukraine? Any truth to that?

[grumbler]

edit: several places have been mentioned that a small number of ATACMS will be released to Ukraine? Any truth to that?

I hope it is at least one large bridge's worth.

[Zoupa]

It seems it'll be the submunitions version and not the single warhead, so no.

[Zoupa]

Although if it forces Germany's hand in supplying the Taurus, now we're talking.

[jimmy olsen]

Reports flying around twitter that the Admiral in command of the Black Sea fleet was killed, and a 3 star and star general were severally wounded.

We can only hope it's true.

https://vxtwitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1705268912344940766

Seems Ukraine waited until a bunch of the Russian Navy's brass loaded up into headquarters before blowing it up, killing the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet himself.

Wikipedia has been updated to say Commander Victor Sokolov is now wormfood.

https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1705344634128380206

NEW: Among severely wounded in Ukrainian attack on Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol — Col. Gen. Alexander Romanchuk and Lt. Gen. Oleg Tsekov, Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov tells @VOAnews. He confirms at least 9 dead and 16 injured among RUS military personnel.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1705347391111524654

Romanchuk is in charge of Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia where the main thrust of Ukraine's counteroffensive is occurring. This suggests that it wasn't just a strike on the Black Sea Fleet HQ, but timed to target key senior leaders during a meeting.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1705035277851414703

NEW: #Ukrainian armored vehicles are operating beyond the final line of the #Russian defensive layer that Ukrainian forces in western #Zaporizhia Oblast are currently penetrating, although ISW is not yet prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken fully through this Russian defensive layer.