Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Barrister]

Basically every news source dead quiet at the moment. Some saying they've been told to keep very quiet. Unusually on the Russian side too.
Massive battle underway. Possibly make a break...

Zelenskyy said big news was coming tomorrow...

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1707797159079301308

[Sheilbh]

Basically every news source dead quiet at the moment. Some saying they've been told to keep very quiet. Unusually on the Russian side too.
Massive battle underway. Possibly make a break...

Total aside on this but I saw an interesting piece on how the Russian information space has become a lot more restricted post-Prigozhin. There's still a bit of score settling between factions on the military blogs but a lot, lot less valuable information than their used to be.

Not clear if that's a concerted state effort or, post-Prigozhin, everyone's winding their neck in.

[Barrister]

This should be entertaining: CRTC announces it is going to start regulating Podcasts.

https://www.canada.ca/en/radio-television-telecommunications/news/2023/09/crtc-takes-major-step-forward-to-modernize-canadas-broadcasting-framework.html

It specifies that while audiobooks and videogame services are not covered, podcasts explicitly are.

At first it is just mandating that they have to provide various registration data to the CRTC, but they make it clear there are ongoing discussions about further regulations to ensure sufficient Canadian and First Nations content.

It sets a $10 million ceiling, so presumably individual podcasts are unlikely to have to register (although, I dunno, something like Spittin Chicklets might), but services like Apple and Spotify would?

I actually looked up the list of the most popular podcasts in Canada.  #1 this week is "New Heights with Jason and Travis Kelce".  I'd never heard of it, wondered why it would be so popular...

Oh.  Yeah.

https://chartable.com/charts/itunes/ca-all-podcasts-podcasts

[Legbiter]

Basically every news source dead quiet at the moment. Some saying they've been told to keep very quiet. Unusually on the Russian side too.
Massive battle underway. Possibly make a break...

Grain of salt, there was a big gesture of goodwill by the russians around Tokmak.

We'll see.

[Jacob]

Here's hoping. I love a good Russian goodwill gesture

[Legbiter]

Apparently the goodwill gesture was russki air defense shooting down their own Su-35.

[Tamas]

Meanwhile the Serbs are deploying armor and artillery on their border with Kosovo:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

[Hamilcar]

Meanwhile the Serbs are deploying armor and artillery on their border with Kosovo:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

Stop! Lockheed Martin can only get so erect!

[Zoupa]

I think that's it for the counteroffensive. Lines haven't moved really and russia is doing increased air strikes all over the advance which has effectively broken the momentum.

Either there's an unlikely collapse of russian morale, or we'll have to wait for F-16 or front line air defense to have any movement of the lines.

The West has failed Ukraine. It will be catastrophic if a Republican gets into the White House. In other news Canada is set to cut 3 billion in defense budget and Slovaquia is about to elect a Putin fanboy. Not looking good.

[Tamas]

Meanwhile the Telegraph will run a story titled "British troops being sent to Ukraine", because of the defense secretary considering moving a training program from the UK to Ukraine. It would be good if journalists actually cared about how their clixkbait BS can be wraponised by the enemy.

[Josquius]

I think that's it for the counteroffensive. Lines haven't moved really and russia is doing increased air strikes all over the advance which has effectively broken the momentum.

Either there's an unlikely collapse of russian morale, or we'll have to wait for F-16 or front line air defense to have any movement of the lines.

Source on this?
I've heard the opposite. Ukraine is showing signs of breaking through and the Russian air force is staying quiet, afraid of Ukrainian anti air.
Also Russia is fast running out of artillery y barrels.

Time will tell

[PJL]

Furthermore, there seems to be a last minute deal in the US to avoid a government shutdown but one which doesn't include no new aid for Ukraine. Personally I'd rather have the shutdown than that. Just incredible, this would never have happened in the Cold War.

[Sheilbh]

Meanwhile the Telegraph will run a story titled "British troops being sent to Ukraine", because of the defense secretary considering moving a training program from the UK to Ukraine. It would be good if journalists actually cared about how their clixkbait BS can be wraponised by the enemy.

There's been several "British troops in Ukraine" stories already because there are - SAS and other special forces and others involved in supporting Ukrainian effort but not on the front line. Britain shrugs, Russia fumes - I don't think this headine matters more than the previous ones.

Edit: Although the real British fuckery on training is that we've had to reduce the working day for the training mission on Salisbury Plain because of noise complaints from local residents

[Zoupa]

I think that's it for the counteroffensive. Lines haven't moved really and russia is doing increased air strikes all over the advance which has effectively broken the momentum.

Either there's an unlikely collapse of russian morale, or we'll have to wait for F-16 or front line air defense to have any movement of the lines.

Source on this?
I've heard the opposite. Ukraine is showing signs of breaking through and the Russian air force is staying quiet, afraid of Ukrainian anti air.
Also Russia is fast running out of artillery y barrels.

Time will tell

https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/

IMO this is the best map out there. Look at the number of red dots compared to blue. Pay attention to the air strikes. You can also go back to the beginning of june and see how little terrain has changed. There is certainly no breakthrough in depth. Ukraine has attrited russian artillery, but it's nowhere near enough. No western country is scaling their artillery ammunition or mortar rounds to a scale that Ukraine needs.

This was all very avoidable if the west had been quicker.

[grumbler]

https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/

IMO this is the best map out there. Look at the number of red dots compared to blue. Pay attention to the air strikes. You can also go back to the beginning of june and see how little terrain has changed. There is certainly no breakthrough in depth. Ukraine has attrited russian artillery, but it's nowhere near enough. No western country is scaling their artillery ammunition or mortar rounds to a scale that Ukraine needs.

This was all very avoidable if the west had been quicker.

This may be the best map available, but I don't agree with your assumption that it is complete enough that we can "compare dots" and come away with any conclusions.  And. yes, there have been (and were not expected to be) any major change in the battlefield location, since the key terrain is between the first and last lines of Russian fortifications, which won't appear on a map of this scale.  If/when that last line is cracked in enough places to allow a breakthrough, things will change quickly.  Until then, they won't.  Again, as expected.

I agree that it would have been far better had the West been more active in providing arms and ammunition, but that seems not to have been politically feasible.