Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

What are the odds of: Russia trying to draw a substantial Ukrainian force in to have them assault Kherson and then nuke them?

I'll go on the record and say "low".

But if they do, I'm fairly confident we'll have some advanced warning. A lot of resources have been invested by NATO - and especially the US - to not be surprised by nuclear strikes out of the blue.

[The Brain]

I think the odds are high. For several reasons.

[Jacob]

OFFICIAL MOD ADVISORY: Any further posts on the 9/11 tangent may be deleted, without further warning. Please start another thread if you have more to say on this topic.

New thread has been created here: https://languish.org/forums/index.php/board,1.0.html

(Ironic, I know, since I started the tangent)

[mongers]

I think the odds are high. For several reasons.

I agree, but my defiinition of high in this context is in the single % digits, so not probable, but still a significant risk.

[The Brain]

I think the odds are high. For several reasons.

I agree, but my defiinition of high in this context is in the single % digits, so not probable, but still a significant risk.

My definition of high odds (in this context) is that the event is (considered to be) unlikely.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Given the region the Russians have another warcrime option that can use before throwing nukes: destroying the dam on the Dniepr.

[Jacob]

I found this analysis pretty solid re: Putin, nukes, and escalation: https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/addressing-putins-nuclear-threat-thinking-like-the-cold-war-kgb-officer-that-he-was/

[mongers]

I found this analysis pretty solid re: Putin, nukes, and escalation: https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/addressing-putins-nuclear-threat-thinking-like-the-cold-war-kgb-officer-that-he-was/

Thanks Jacob, that was interesting.

[Barrister]

So FSB officers and contract Russian soldiers walk into a Kherson bar...

https://news.yahoo.com/report-drunk-russian-soldiers-in-kherson-fired-assault-rifles-at-fsb-officers-in-deadly-incident-001518057.html

Come for the shooting, stay for the bureaucratic battle that followed.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1582848335492546560

[Legbiter]

Russian State TV in full glorious meltdown. Watch their reporter in Kherson with this hopeless traumatized expression. Stay for that Russian female version of Julius Streicher, the Skabeeva hag having a brief moment of clarity...

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1582794925304729601

[HVC]

Questioning the dear leaders plans? How long until she finds herself deathly allergic to heights?

[Legbiter]

If only the good Tsar knew how bad the boyars are being. 

[Razgovory]

Even they think they'll lose Kherson.  

[Sheilbh]

Not posted one of these in ages, but the last bit of the second bullet looks interesting (if only a possibility) in relation to stuff about Kherson:


Edit: Also if that is the case - I'm not convinced of the ability of Russian forces to conduct a retreat in good order especially as it will likely be under pretty strong Ukrainian fire.

Edit: From Zelenskiy's former spokesperson:

Iuliia Mendel
@IuliiaMendel
Russians are leaving Kherson, the local citizens say

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think Putin has been sending word through channels that official sources in Russia need to stop being so relentlessly positive. Specifically, that it was time to acknowledge there are problem in the Special Military Operation. This kind of makes sense, because when the current strategy is clearly not working, acknowledging there are problems can allow Putin to rhetorically double down and justify more draconian measures in Russia as a war necessity.