Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Legbiter]

My core point here is the Bucharest statement was meaningless drivel. If NATO was not interested in formalizing a MAP, it was likely needlessly stupid to make the statement as it was.

In hindsight this started the countdown to the Crimean annexation in 2014 and the current war.

[Jacob]

Oh hey, so apparently Putin has asked China to supply Russia with weapons.

A number of interesting implications there.

[Legbiter]

Oh hey, so apparently Putin has asked China to supply Russia with weapons.

A number of interesting implications there.

The Chinese will have to pick a side at some point. I personally want them isolated from the West tradewise. Currently if the Chinese wanted to launch nuclear weapons at US industrial infrastructure they'd have to nuke themselves.

[Tamas]

My core point here is the Bucharest statement was meaningless drivel. If NATO was not interested in formalizing a MAP, it was likely needlessly stupid to make the statement as it was.

In hindsight this started the countdown to the Crimean annexation in 2014 and the current war.

What started the 2014 mess was the uprising getting rid of their pro-Russian proto-autocrat, NOT a meaningless 2008 declaration. I very much doubt this reckless zeal from Putin for restoring the Russian Empire, is based only, or even just primarily, on a single 2008 statement.

[Legbiter]

What started the 2014 mess was the uprising getting rid of their pro-Russian proto-autocrat, NOT a meaningless 2008 declaration. I very much doubt this reckless zeal from Putin for restoring the Russian Empire, is based only, or even just primarily, on a single 2008 statement.

Point taken.

[Jacob]

Oh hey, so apparently Putin has asked China to supply Russia with weapons.

A number of interesting implications there.

The Chinese will have to pick a side at some point. I personally want them isolated from the West tradewise. Currently if the Chinese wanted to launch nuclear weapons at US industrial infrastructure they'd have to nuke themselves.

Heh.

Two implications:

1) Russia's army is running low on materiel.

2) Putin is pushing China to pick a side, potentially sooner than they'd like I reckon.

Personally I like the West's chances against Russia + China now better than if we'd waited 10 or 20 years.

[Razgovory]

Very cool map Syt.

Can you tell what the multi-colored shields next to the Ukrainian units mean?

Higher unit organization, like division or corps, I'm guessing but I can't tell from the key.

Fronts, which I think is equivalent to an army group.  One is the Western Front the other is the Southern Front.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Oh hey, so apparently Putin has asked China to supply Russia with weapons.

A number of interesting implications there.

The Chinese will have to pick a side at some point. I personally want them isolated from the West tradewise. Currently if the Chinese wanted to launch nuclear weapons at US industrial infrastructure they'd have to nuke themselves.

Heh.

Two implications:

1) Russia's army is running low on materiel.

2) Putin is pushing China to pick a side, potentially sooner than they'd like I reckon.

Personally I like the West's chances against Russia + China now better than if we'd waited 10 or 20 years.

Yes, I think Xi showed the iron fist a decade or so earlier than he should have done and Russia has made a right mess of attacking Ukraine even if they do ultimately "win".

We have received a warning of how it is going to be and need to expand our defence budgets accordingly.

[Jacob]

Yup. Being hawkish on defence and muscular foreign policy vs anti-democratic regimes has shot up significantly on my list of policy priorities, that's for sure.

[celedhring]

Seeing several reports of the past few days of the Russians hitting Ukraine's arms industry - which makes me think that Russia isn't planning to keep the country anymore, but probably planning to have a second round in a few years' time.

[Solmyr]

The Kremlin doesn't actually believe that a NATO Ukraine is an existential threat to Russia. That's just one of their standard lies.

It may be an existential threat to Putin's regime (which in their eyes is the same as an existential threat to Russia - "no Russia without Putin"), if Russians start seeing their Ukrainian brothers living way better as part of NATO and EU.

[The Brain]

The Kremlin doesn't actually believe that a NATO Ukraine is an existential threat to Russia. That's just one of their standard lies.

It may be an existential threat to Putin's regime (which in their eyes is the same as an existential threat to Russia - "no Russia without Putin"), if Russians start seeing their Ukrainian brothers living way better as part of NATO and EU.

In their eyes their own regime is not Russia. They know that Russia has had and likely will have different regimes.

Does the Kremlin have a very strong desire to keep Ukraine out of NATO, and if possible become a Russian vassal or be completely absorbed by Russia? Yes, obviously.

As a fairly unimportant aside, a Ukraine in NATO would have several effects, many bad for Putin but some good. One of them is helping Putin maintain the siege mentality Russian regimes love Russians to have.

[The Brain]

The Kremlin doesn't actually believe that a NATO Ukraine is an existential threat to Russia. That's just one of their standard lies.

It may be an existential threat to Putin's regime (which in their eyes is the same as an existential threat to Russia - "no Russia without Putin"), if Russians start seeing their Ukrainian brothers living way better as part of NATO and EU.

In their eyes their own regime is not Russia. They know that Russia has had and likely will have different regimes.

Addendum: if Putin actually thought that his regime was Russia he wouldn't keep a huge security apparatus designed to protect him from other Russians trying to remove him from power.

[Josquius]

I wonder to what extent he actually believes NATO is a threat vs seeing it as a useful tool for domestic purposes.

[The Brain]

THe Ukraine becoming more Western is not an existential threat to Russia.

And even the Russians are perfectly aware of that.

Just because they say they believe something is true, doesn't mean they actually believe it to be true.

I feel like we had this argument once already....

I think the point Mearsheimer (and maybe Sheilbh) are making is that American foreign policy at least needs to consider how other countries interpret things even if those interpretations are not rational.

I don't think it's irrational by the Kremlin to falsely claim that they view a NATO Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia. Both useful idiots in the West and many Russians at home lap that shit up.