Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

I guess its easier to spend more when you're using your own military. There you're by default tapping into budgets with a lot more freedom to spend vast sums

[Admiral Yi]

I have read that the Gulf states kicked in so much that the US actually ran a small profit on GWI.

[The Larch]

It seems that the relationship between the Russian army and Wagner is not exactly going through its best times.

Boss of Wagner mercenary group accuses Russian army chiefs of 'treason'
Yevgeny Prigozhin says Moscow is refusing to supply the group with munitions and other supplies in Ukraine

The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group has said Moscow's military chiefs are refusing to supply the group with munitions and are seeking to destroy it, accusing them of "treason", in an escalation of the war of words between senior Russian officials and the private army boss.

Yevgeny Prigozhin's mercenary force, which has recruited from prisons across Russia to bolster its ranks, is playing a key role in the efforts to capture the city of Bakhmut in Ukraine's east. The battle has exposed tensions between the Wagner group and the Russian army, though the Kremlin denies any rift.

"[Moscow's] chief of general staff and the defence minister give out orders left and right not only to not give ammunition to PMC Wagner, but also to not help it with air transport," Prigozhin said in a voice message shared by his press service on Tuesday.

"There is just direct opposition going on, which is nothing less than an attempt to destroy Wagner. This can be equated to high treason," he added.

Prigozhin also accused the military high command of having prohibited the delivery of shovels for Wagner fighters to dig trenches.

In the past, Prigozhin has criticised Russia's regular army in Ukraine and recently slammed Moscow's "monstrous bureaucracy" for slowing military gains. He has also accused the Russian military of attempting to "steal" victories from Wagner.

Russia's defence ministry denied limiting ammunition shipments to volunteers at the front, but made no mention of the Wagner group private army or of Prigozhin's accusations.

"All requests for ammunition for assault units are met as soon as possible," it insisted, promising new deliveries on Saturday and denouncing as "absolutely false" reports of shortages.

"Attempts to create a split within the close mechanism of interaction and support between units of the Russian [fighting] groups are counter-productive and work solely to the benefit of the enemy," the statement read.

Prigozhin has assumed a more public role since the war started. His Wagner group spearheaded the battle for Bakhmut but his relations with Moscow are clearly deteriorating.

This year Prigozhin was stripped of the right to recruit prisoners and there have been some signs of a Kremlin move to curb his influence.

After the Russian defence ministry rejected his initial accusations on Tuesday, Prigozhin released a voice message saying this was "nothing more than simply spitting at Wagner", reiterating that his men were very short of supplies.

In his state of the nation speech delivered on Tuesday, Putin seemed to address the infighting.

"We must get rid of ... any interdepartmental contradictions, formalities, grudges, misunderstandings, and other nonsense," he told the political and military elite.

In a post later in the day, Prigozhin said he had been too busy to watch the speech and could therefore not comment on the president's remarks.

Taking Bakhmut would be a major win for Moscow in its nearly year-long offensive in Ukraine, though analysts say its capture would be mainly symbolic as the city holds little strategic value.

[The Minsky Moment]

Tension between the SS and Heer - what a surprise.

[PJL]

Tension between the SS and Heer - what a surprise.

I've been mentally calling the 'mercs' the Wagner SS for a while now.

[Legbiter]

Vatnik channels are seething over the munitions, pulled out of storage, that Russian units are being issued with. 



Feel like I need a tetanus shot after just looking at those pics. I've seen WW II artillery shells abandoned outdoors here by Allied troops that looked in better condition than this...

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1628477870497562625

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Vatnik channels are seething over the munitions, pulled out of storage, that Russian units are being issued with. 



Feel like I need a tetanus shot after just looking at those pics. I've seen WW II artillery shells abandoned outdoors here by Allied troops that looked in better condition than this...

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1628477870497562625

I've excavated WW1 munitions that were looking better, and were probably more dangerous too.

[Admiral Yi]

On the flip side they look pretty good as enchiladas.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Yeah, thought it was a lunchbox before I had seen the text. 

[Josquius]

W

Vatnik channels are seething over the munitions, pulled out of storage, that Russian units are being issued with. 


Feel like I need a tetanus shot after just looking at those pics. I've seen WW II artillery shells abandoned outdoors here by Allied troops that looked in better condition than this...

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1628477870497562625

Perfect summary yeah 

It does give a nice counter to the worries on Ukrainian ammo. Will they keep fighting with just bayonets?

The only worry I guess is China. It seems probable they the capacity to produce a lot of basic ammo fast for Russia.

[celedhring]

Yeah, the only wildcard Russia has, imhho, is China deciding to flip the switch and supplying them.


Also, that box of ammo reminds me of the sardines I ate yesterday 

[Tamas]

I will start to get really worried again if China starts to clearly and openly supply Russia with ammo and other war materials.

I think the only reason to do so instead of waiting out the eventual Russian collapse to vassalise them is to ensure the war -and American distraction- persists until they invade Taiwan.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

China openly supplying Russia would probably lead to near instant sanctions from the US.
Conflict of some kind would be baked in probably.

[Josquius]

A lot easier for them to be open of course, but they do have quite a large border, good trade links, and both have authoritarian governments. 
Honestly if I was Xi I probably would be looking at how to supply Russia discretely.

[Threviel]

If I was Xi I would do my utmost to de-stabilize Russia. A broken defeated Russia can be made a vassal state whilst a Russia with delusions of grandeur is harder to vassalize.

So give some token help to not alienate the public image in Russia, but do not give them help enough to win.

The war will lead to vastly increased conventional military production strength of the west also, creating the opportunity to give aid to RoC after the war is won. A shorter war where Russia is decisively defeated will perhaps not create the same urgency in the west. A longer war with outright Chinese aid to Russia will strengthen western resolve and guarantee more aid to the RoC.

In addition to eventual sanctions and their effect on a China that has seen exceptional unrest and protests over the last year.

I don't really se the upside for China in aiding Russia militarily.