Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[DGuller]

I ran across the Twitter chatter regarding Transnistria, claiming that Ukraine is gearing up to aid Moldova in liberating it.  What seems unclear is what's driving this chatter:  is it actually a reflection of Ukraine preparing to attack it, or is it Russia preparing the ground for assault on Moldova?  It would seem insane for Russia to attack Moldova without securing the entirety of southern Ukraine first, but it has done plenty of insane things before.

[Legbiter]

Russians really, really want to take Bakhmut.

Hopefully nobody tells the vatniks that what happens if/when they take the town is that they'll have to do it all again a couple miles east of the town...Repeat a few more times and then they can spend a few years trying to take Kramatorsk. 

[Legbiter]

I ran across the Twitter chatter regarding Transnistria, claiming that Ukraine is gearing up to aid Moldova in liberating it.  What seems unclear is what's driving this chatter:  is it actually a reflection of Ukraine preparing to attack it, or is it Russia preparing the ground for assault on Moldova?  It would seem insane for Russia to attack Moldova without securing the entirety of southern Ukraine first, but it has done plenty of insane things before.

Once Russia is defeated the little enclaves like Transnistria and Kaliningrad can be dealt with in the Yalta II conference.

[mongers]

Last night I dreamt I and others were in a location/building under attack from the Russians, don't think it was necessarily Ukraine. The attack was from MIRV warheads from an ICBM, there was even the defensive ABM or Patriots being launched in a last ditch effort.

But there wasn't any nuclear explosions, the MIRV were carrying conventional explosives.

Is that even a technical possibility? leaving aside the economics of it, but then again given Putin's brilliant strategic choices, maybe we'll see this too?   

[DGuller]

That would be like pulling out a toy gun on someone's who's armed.  You get none of the potential benefits from doing that, and your potential drawbacks get upgraded to guaranteed drawbacks.

[PJL]

Crimea is my main concern. If Ukraine tried to take it back, will Russia consider it an existential threat and up the ante several levels as a result?

[Razgovory]

Crimea is my main concern. If Ukraine tried to take it back, will Russia consider it an existential threat and up the ante several levels as a result?

We'll just have to wait and see.

[Grey Fox]

Crimea is my main concern. If Ukraine tried to take it back, will Russia consider it an existential threat and up the ante several levels as a result?

Nope. If they go too far even Xi has a treaty with Ukraine.

[Tonitrus]

I ran across the Twitter chatter regarding Transnistria, claiming that Ukraine is gearing up to aid Moldova in liberating it.  What seems unclear is what's driving this chatter:  is it actually a reflection of Ukraine preparing to attack it, or is it Russia preparing the ground for assault on Moldova? It would seem insane for Russia to attack Moldova without securing the entirety of southern Ukraine first, but it has done plenty of insane things before.

They would need to invent a teleporter first.

Sure they could try using paratroops, but that hasn't worked out well for them so far.  And a bunch of Il-76s would make for juicy targets when they pass over the Odessa region.  Not to mention the inability to resupply. 

[Josquius]

Seems unlikely Ukraine would be wanting to hit Moldova now. Maybe when the war in their borders is in a better place?
Far more likely that it is Russia trying to stir shit in Moldova. Given the size of the Moldovan army that handful of Russians in transnistria and the local militia should be enough to stir some shit.
Certainly they're doing that enough already without soldiers.

[celedhring]

Seems unlikely Ukraine would be wanting to hit Moldova now. Maybe when the war in their borders is in a better place?
Far more likely that it is Russia trying to stir shit in Moldova. Given the size of the Moldovan army that handful of Russians in transnistria and the local militia should be enough to stir some shit.
Certainly they're doing that enough already without soldiers.

I remember a few weeks ago a bunch of Serbian hooligans coming for a CL game were seen as potentially regime-destabilizing. It feels like Moldova isn't the strongest of states...

[PJL]

Seems unlikely Ukraine would be wanting to hit Moldova now. Maybe when the war in their borders is in a better place?
Far more likely that it is Russia trying to stir shit in Moldova. Given the size of the Moldovan army that handful of Russians in transnistria and the local militia should be enough to stir some shit.
Certainly they're doing that enough already without soldiers.

I remember a few weeks ago a bunch of Serbian hooligans coming for a CL game were seen as potentially regime-destabilizing. It feels like Moldova isn't the strongest of states...

So why aren't we doing more to help them out, both economically and military? Seems an obvious thing to do at the moment.

[Sheilbh]

I thought this thread from one of the Kiel Institute guys was really interesting (a little bit of a Germany focus though):
https://twitter.com/Ch_Trebesch/status/1627954581874302977?s=20

Basically looking at how much the West is supporting Ukraine. There's comparison with lend lease and other US wars. But I thought these were really striking - first comparison with the Gulf War:


The thing I find really interesting about that is that I think I was cheered by the united Western response to Ukraine - but we can see that it is still a shadow of the unity and material commitment to the Western alliance at the end of the Cold War. I'd argue that helped create the security context for the 90s/end of history/rules based order moment - which is now declining, I think in large part because of that fall in unity and spending on security. I always think the German example is really extreme in how hard-headedly aware of security issues (and their relationship with energy issues) Schmidt, Brandt, Kohl etc were compared with their successors. But it's similar with the UK - particularly obvious around tanks and air force capacity.

But also comparing the money being spent supporting Ukraine v subsidising energy costs domestically:


And specifically (as I say it's Germany focused and I'd love them to do this for the UK or other countries) the comparison with other recent domestic policy initiatives:

[HVC]

Gulf war was a year or two after the wall fell, isn't Germany much better off financial now? % of gdp seems a bit misleading in that respect.

The other charts are a bit more damning

[Sheilbh]

Gulf war was a year or two after the wall fell, isn't Germany much better off financial now? % of gdp seems a bit misleading in that respect.

The other charts are a bit more damning

My point isn't specifically about Germany - but there's also Japan which is striking because both offered strong financial support in the Gulf War but weren't part of the military coalition. Which is a bit like the West's position now.

They do both at different points in the thread - I think % of GDP makes more sense because there has been inflation in the last 40 years so what you can get with the same cash is different in 1990 and now, but also I think it makes for a better comparison of two historic periods that are now about as far apart from each other as the end of the war and the end of the Cold War