Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Syt]

Sweden definitely needs to return to being a nation in arms, like in CW1.

Clone War 1?

[Sheilbh]

Michael Roth, a member of Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats, said he can no longer imagine deepening economic relations with Russia.

Putin trembles in fear!

From NYT's Brussels chief on the state of play re. sanctions. Incredible of Belgium to somehow identify concerns with sanctions over one of the world's least ethical products - so you can morally object to every stage from extraction to sale

Matina Stevis-Gridneff
@MatinaStevis
Diplomats tell us following sanctions are tricky:
- ITA, AUS, DE concerned abt broad banking-sector sanctions
- ITA resistant to sanctions that include railways
- ITA wants carve-out for luxury goods
- BEL wants carve-out for diamonds
+ broad reluctance to sanction energy sector

I think the leaders will realise how serious it is and unite around big and tough sanctions - but as I say I think Italy might be the big country to worry about in terms of putting that package together.

[Syt]

Surprised Austria (I assume it's Austria, even if it says AUS which would be Australia ) is only listed for banking. But yeah, Austrian banks are fairly entangled in Ukrainian/Russian business.

[The Larch]

Will there actually be dissent within Russia?

In a rare act of public dissent against the war, the Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta has announced that its next edition will come out in Russian and Ukrainian languages.

Dmitry Muratov, the Nobel prize-winning editor of the paper, said that "together with our grief we feel shame" about a war that he directly blamed on Vladimir Putin.

"What's the next step?" he said. "A nuclear salvo?

"We're going to release this next edition of Novaya Gazeta in two languages because we will never see Ukraine as an enemy or Ukrainian as the language of the enemy."

He added a call for protests against the war.

"Only an anti-war movement of Russians in my opinion can save life on this planet."

Russian celebrities, journalists and other public figures have voiced opposition to President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, with activists planning to stage an anti-war rally in central Moscow this evening.

Pop stars, late-night television hosts and film directors have been posting black squares to Instagram in protest of the war.

"We the Russians will be dealing with the consequences of today for many more years," wrote socialite and former presidential candidate Ksenia Sobchak.

An anti-war petition launched by Kommersant business daily reporter Elena Chernenko has collected at least 100 journalists' signatures. The signatories include employees of outlets including RBC, Novaya Gazeta, Dozhd, Ekho Moskvy, Snob and The Bell.
(...)
Later, a coalition of 30 independent Russian media outlets declared opposition to "the massacre started by the Russian leadership."

"We promise that we will be honest about what is happening while we have this opportunity," the Syndicate-100 coalition wrote.

"We wish resilience and strength to the people of Ukraine who are resisting aggression and to everyone in Russia who is now trying to resist militaristic madness," it added.

The Memorial human rights organization, which Russia ordered to be liquidated late last year, said the war will mark "a shameful chapter in Russian history."

More than 150 Russian scientists and scientific journalists signed an open letter against the "unfair and frankly meaningless" Russian military action in Ukraine.

"By unleashing the war, Russia has condemned itself to international isolation and the position of a rogue state," said the letter published on the TrV-Nauka scientific news website.

"This means that we scientists will no longer be able to do our job properly... Russia's isolation from the world means the further cultural and technological degradation of our country."

More than 150 municipal deputies from Russian cities signed an open letter condemning the deadly attack on Ukraine.

"This is an unprecedented atrocity, for which there is no and cannot be any justification," the local lawmakers wrote.

"We are convinced that the citizens of Russia did not give him such a mandate," they added. "Hopes for a good life in Russia are crumbling before our eyes."

Several cultural figures have also made statements against the war.

"Soviet crimes went unpunished in Russia, and so they recur. The price for what was not done in 1991 are the Russian missiles and bombs killing Ukrainians today," Sergei Lebedev, author of "Untraceable," wrote under a photograph of the Bykivnia graves outside Kyiv where "enemies of the people" executed by the NKVD were buried.

"It is too early to ask Ukrainians to forgive us," he wrote. "We will ask for forgiveness after the criminals who began this war are punished. If they are punished."

Yelena Kovalskaya, director of the Meyerhold Theater Center, announced her resignation from the state theater Thursday, saying: "It is impossible to work for a murderer and receive salary from him. I will finish the work I've started, but without pay."

The police-monitoring website OVD-Info reported dozens of detentions in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other Russian cities for staging solo pickets against the war.

Moscow police have arrested human rights activist Marina Litvinovich outside her home. Hours ago, she called for nationwide anti-war protests.

[The Brain]

The countries that made themselves dependent on Russian gas did so by choice. They knew the risks.

[garbon]

Michael Roth, a member of Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats, said he can no longer imagine deepening economic relations with Russia.

Putin trembles in fear!

From NYT's Brussels chief on the state of play re. sanctions. Incredible of Belgium to somehow identify concerns with sanctions over one of the world's least ethical products - so you can morally object to every stage from extraction to sale

Matina Stevis-Gridneff
@MatinaStevis
Diplomats tell us following sanctions are tricky:
- ITA, AUS, DE concerned abt broad banking-sector sanctions
- ITA resistant to sanctions that include railways
- ITA wants carve-out for luxury goods
- BEL wants carve-out for diamonds
+ broad reluctance to sanction energy sector

I think the leaders will realise how serious it is and unite around big and tough sanctions - but as I say I think Italy might be the big country to worry about in terms of putting that package together.

How spineless and self-serving.

[garbon]

Yes, complete exclusion from sporting and cultural events. Let them have their own leagues and shows with Belarus and their other puppets.

100x yes. We are entirely too ridiculous if we say on one hand that you are committing atrocities beyond the pale but hey we are happy to continue with cultural exchange.

[Josephus]

Now CNN anchoress says "this morning Russia declared war on Ukraine."

Slight hyperbole.

[The Larch]

I had hoped that someone could have sent them some manpads a few weeks ago, would have been a cheap way for some western nation to make invasion more expensive. Well well, lesson for when it's Georgia's turn.

Apparently Lithuania and Latvia sent Stingers to the Ukranians, so they might have dozen's of them... 

Apparently Poland sent some Polish manpads also...

Excellent show of support there...

Latvian stingers seem to have already been put to good use and downed several Russian helicopters around Kiev, apparently. There were pictures of a Belorussian helicopter downed as well.

Former US Lt. Coronel Alexander Vindman, of the Trump impeachment case fame, and actually born in Kiev, is tweeting some pretty interesting remarks:

Russia's first actions are hit or miss. It's not looking as bad as I would have thought. Fewer cruise missile & air strikes. An early use of ground forces without reducing Ukraine's military.
We will learn a great deal about the Russian military. It seems weaker than suspected.

[Syt]

Saw a comment that Russia waited till daylight to commence major ground operations since apparently their sensor and night vision capabilities are still shit? They had 40 years now to catch up on those ....

[Threviel]

Good news on the Stinger front 

Yeah, the sheer logistics of moving large armed forces large distances from their bases is daunting, if armed resistance is going on it's very much a non-trivial thing taking up huge resources.

It's 250ish km to Kiev from the Belarussian border, it might actually take a few days if there's resistance.

[celedhring]

Michael Roth, a member of Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats, said he can no longer imagine deepening economic relations with Russia.

Putin trembles in fear!

From NYT's Brussels chief on the state of play re. sanctions. Incredible of Belgium to somehow identify concerns with sanctions over one of the world's least ethical products - so you can morally object to every stage from extraction to sale

Matina Stevis-Gridneff
@MatinaStevis
Diplomats tell us following sanctions are tricky:
- ITA, AUS, DE concerned abt broad banking-sector sanctions
- ITA resistant to sanctions that include railways
- ITA wants carve-out for luxury goods
- BEL wants carve-out for diamonds
+ broad reluctance to sanction energy sector

I think the leaders will realise how serious it is and unite around big and tough sanctions - but as I say I think Italy might be the big country to worry about in terms of putting that package together.

From the same account.

UPDATE: EU diplomats tell me carveout demands (incl those above) evaporated. Broad agreement on sanctions today. BUT: new cleavage is Putin himself. Some want him excluded for now to keep channel to Kremlin open. Others say he should be sanctioned ASAP

[celedhring]

I was surprised not to see Hungary in the objections list. Are Orban's Visegrad pals strong-arming him?

[Sheilbh]

I was surprised not to see Hungary in the objections list. Are Orban's Visegrad pals strong-arming him?

I'm wondering if it's an election thing? Because so far Orban has been far less disruptive and put out reasonably strong statements than I feared he would be. He's got an election in a couple of months against a unified opposition list and I can't imagine that being pals with Russia has ever been wildly popular in Hungary.

[Syt]

I was surprised not to see Hungary on the above list. Are his Visegrad pals strong-arming Orban?

Apparently Hungary have said they will not send any armaments to Ukraine, because neutrality and all that (and Germany refusing to send weapons, they can hide behind them). They promise humanitarian aid, and are prepared to take in Ukrainian refugees, apparently. I wonder if sanctions on Russia may cause pinch on Orban because less money from Moscow would be coming his way, or if he would even be ready to flip to Russia's side if, e.g. he was promised "traditionally Hungarian territories" in Ukraine. He feels like a wildcard.

Heck, even Milos Zeman, president of Czech Rep. and frequent Russia apologist has come out strongly against the Russian invasion.