Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[celedhring]

I'm reading that Ukraine is now exporting electricity to the EU again 

The people working around the clock all these months to keep the grid functional are some of the unsung heroes of this war.

[Sheilbh]

The people working around the clock all these months to keep the grid functional are some of the unsung heroes of this war.

Yeah and the railways. The infrastructure keeping going has been extraordinary especially the recovery efforts given that Russia was actively bombing infrastructure just a few months ago.

[Admiral Yi]

I'm most surprised their finances have held up.

[Josquius]

I'm most surprised their finances have held up.

They aren't are they?
They're just getting massive aid / already had a fairly weak economy.

I guess it helps their richest areas are in the west.

[Admiral Yi]

They aren't are they?
They're just getting massive aid / already had a fairly weak economy.

I guess it helps their richest areas are in the west.

The amounts of aid are publicly announced.  Ukraine's grain exports are either blocked or sporadic AFAICT.  A huge part of the civilian workforce has been incorporated into the military, all of whom need public salaries.  A huge part of the civilian workforce has fled the country.

Yet I never hear about Ukrainian bills going unpaid.

[Sheilbh]

In addition to the military and humanitarian aid there is a vast amount of financial aid (or other support) - also being tracked:
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

Separately I believe the IMF overruled their normal stance of not borrowing to an active war zone to support Ukraine (it's still the "rules based order" when we do it for good reasons, of course ). In fact the IMF are using it to force through some big policy (largely the usual prescription: dergulation, reducing labour rights and outsourcing certain state functions) and personnel changes - all of that reshuffling of Ukraine's financial team recently was at the "recommendation" of Western experts.

Their economy has seemingly stabilised at this point - but the invasion caused it to drop about 30-35% and, as you say, defence costs are massive plus reconstruction. Ukrainian resilience is on this as well, incredible. But they're going to need a lot of help post-war.

[DGuller]

The good thing about war economy is that people can reduce their demand for goods and services that are not absolutely necessary, without much of a side effect (in the short run anyway).  People know it's war, so they're happy with less.

[Admiral Yi]

In addition to the military and humanitarian aid there is a vast amount of financial aid (or other support) - also being tracked:
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

Yeah, 12 billion in aid doesn't seem like it would fill the gap.  Of course I don't know how much Ukraine spends.

[Sheilbh]

Where are you getting $12 billion from - not just aid. For example the UK's backed debt issuances by Ukraine, Canada's done bond drives for Ukraine - I think there's been some facilities set up so Ukraine can access cash.

Also obviously the central bank is issuing cash and effectively has a fixed exchange rate with the US (and a different black market price) because, for obvious reasons, inflation targeting is secondary to state survival.

All the stuff you'd expect from a state in an existential war and the world's lenders are on their side.

[Admiral Yi]

Where are you getting $12 billion from

Your link

[Sheilbh]

Your link

Right and the US alone is committing $24billion in financial support in the chart.

[Admiral Yi]

Ah, OK.

[Hamilcar]

This leak seems genuinely really bad.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/08/intelligence-leak-documents-ukraine-pentagon/

[Admiral Yi]

My tiny inner conspiracy theorist says maybe a purposeful leak.  Either of information or misinformation.

[Barrister]

I have contractors in Ukraine and I am really angry that Putin keeps trying to kill them.

Slava Ukraini. Get ALL the land back. Put all the Rashists on trial.

Heroiam slava!