Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

Russian sources aren't necessarily always the kremlin line. A lot of good stuff (for Ukrainian intelligence too I imagine) seems to come out of those who think Putin is too soft and talk about various fuck ups that have happened.
I'm particularly fasincated to hear stuff about how things are behind the lines. The conscription dodging and such like.

[Jacob]

I don't see any benefit in watching the Russian propaganda.

There is value in following Russian propoganda.

BY knowing that it's all government controlled, it gives you insight on what the Russian government is telling its people, and by extension what the Russian state itself is thinking.

If you only follow one Twitter account make it Julia Davis, who regularly posts english-subtitled clips from Russian propaganda shows.

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews

But otherwise - no there's no value in following Russian propaganda in trying to determine the truth of what is happening on the ground.

Julia Davis is great.

Yeah, it's a bit more nuanced - I was thinking more the social media stuff, short de-contextualized clips (de-contextualized to push specific narratives in mind though, official press statements etc). Watching Julia Davis' subtitled videos of Russian talk show weirdness is pretty satisfying much of the time - because that stuff is not designed as information warfare tools targetting Westerners and therefore isn't as effective at that.

But things like "watch this column of vehicles being destroyed by drones" or "video of ambush" or news of "successful push in [some place]" or "attack repelled at [some other place]" is specifically designed to serve information warfare objectives. The Russians and Ukrainians are both active in this and I'm not immune (and I don't think most people are). Therefore I'll watch the Ukrainian ones when the mood strikes because I'm fine supporting their infowar objectives. I won't watch the Russian ones, because even when I know what they're up to they still work. If I need to draw conclusions from Russian footage, I'll rely on experts who have the actual expertise to analyse the Russian clips appropriately and then listen to their conclusions.

[Josquius]

That's still looking at Russian sources and talking about them even if parsed through somebody else however.

[Jacob]

Cyril Ramaphosa - president of South Africa, and leading an African Peace Mission - is visiting Kyiv on Friday and St. Petersburg on Saturday.

[Grey Fox]

Kyiv really humouring everyone after that Chinese visit. SA is a Russian stooge country.

[Josquius]

Kyiv really humouring everyone after that Chinese visit. SA is a Russian stooge country.

Definitely that way leaning though seems complex with them trying to keep on ok terms with both sides.
Read the other day there was talk of them dodging hosting the brics meeting to get out of the Putin arrest warrant mess.

[Jacob]

That's still looking at Russian sources and talking about them even if parsed through somebody else however.

Indeed. But by primarily going through trusted experts and mediators you lower the risk of inadverdently contributing to the Russian information warfare efforts.

[viper37]

Himars strike kills 100 Russian soldiers waiting for commander's speech

Ukraine has not officially confirmed it was behind the strike but an official speaking on condition of anonymity, told Kyiv Post: "It's a really funny situation there. They stood in the open air for two hours listening to the speech. That is enough time to fix them, transport the HIMARS, enter the coordinates and hit them."

[Josquius]

Apparently Ukrainians crossing in small numbers at the broken dam area?

[mongers]

Apparently Ukrainians crossing in small numbers at the broken dam area?

Civilians or military units?

[Legbiter]

Kyiv really humouring everyone after that Chinese visit. SA is a Russian stooge country.

By all accounts it's been less than well executed and received...

[Maladict]

Video of a Russian conscript surrendering to a drone. Very odd to see WW1 style trench warfare in HD video.
https://www.wsj.com/video/series/on-the-news/watch-russian-soldier-surrenders-to-drone-on-bakhmut-battlefield/13DA2A49-70E6-48E5-BAC6-08A5C63D77E8

And an interview with him and the drone operator afterwards:
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1657447690320617473

[Josquius]

Apparently Ukrainians crossing in small numbers at the broken dam area?

Civilians or military units?

Troops. Only seen it reported by one guy though with a video in Russian to support. Nothing else seen since. Could just be keeping schtum

[Sheilbh]

That's still looking at Russian sources and talking about them even if parsed through somebody else however.

Indeed. But by primarily going through trusted experts and mediators you lower the risk of inadverdently contributing to the Russian information warfare efforts.

Yeah and to be honest I don't have any knowledge that makes me able to interpret videos of actual combat (and I feel ghoulish about it) so that whole stream of information war is one I don't really follow.

I see clips of the state TV guys. I'm also normally interested in the Russian military bloggers/Telegram guys giving their assessments because I think they are sometimes interesting on their own term - for example I think some of them are basically used by figures within the MoD/Russian Army either to get messages out and up to Putin (outside the chain of command) about the real situation, or to fight battles (eg v Prigozhin). In a way I think that makes them often a bit more accurate than the pure propaganada efforts - if you read between the lines.

If you look at the state TV clips or the more "useful idiot" bit of the internet there have been some reversals for Russia that would come out of the blue. I've always found with the military bloggers that there's normally been a few previous messages of "everything is fine - but fighting is intense" to worry and calling for support and then normally some form of betrayal/failure narrative. It's not necessarily the truth (but as a consumer of Ukraine's propaganda - I think that's normal in a war) but I think it does give at least an outline of what's happening.

[viper37]

Russia has achieved its objective in Ukraine

Ukraine no longer uses its own weapons, it uses western supplied ones.

Therefore, Ukraine is now demilitarized.

Objective: successful.