Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

I thought this was interesting from RUSI nothing really new but helpful:

Ukraine's Counteroffensive Begins: Shall the Leopards Break Free?
Dr Jack Watling
14 June 2023

Ukrainian forces are making gains, but the offensive is some way from its decisive phase; we must refrain from premature pronouncements of success or failure.

Ukrainian forces have launched their long-anticipated offensive in an attempt to break through Russian defence lines to liberate the occupied territories. Ukrainian troops have broken through initial fighting positions along a broad part of the front, but remain some distance from Russia's main defence line. Kyiv has yet to commit the bulk of its forces as its lead elements try to set the conditions for a breakthrough.

The fighting so far has been tough. Russia's initial fighting positions constituted fox holes and hand-dug trenches, but behind these were complex minefields of anti-tank and antipersonnel mines, covered by Russian UAVs and artillery. The main defence line, still 15–20 km from Ukrainian positions, has properly dug trenches and concrete-reinforced firing posts, tank obstacles, ground-laid cable to coordinate artillery strikes, and even more mines. Behind that are the reserve fighting positions of the third defence line.

The fighting will likely get tougher. As Ukrainian forces penetrate deeper into the defences, they will come into range of more Russian artillery firing posts. Moreover, their own artillery will be able to deliver fewer counterbattery missions, and the Ukrainian lines of advance will become more predictable, as they must follow the breaches identified in the minefields. As Ukrainian troops push forwards, they will also be covered by fewer air defences, and will likely come under greater attack by the Russian Aerospace Forces and aviation.

Given these threats, the Ukrainian military is currently trying to achieve three things. Firstly, there is an intense counterbattery duel being fought, with both sides trying to strike each other's logistics, command and control, reconnaissance, and artillery systems. The Russians are hunting for Ukraine's artillery with Lancet UAVs. The Ukrainians are utilising Storm Shadow and GMLRS to try to destroy Russian command and control and munitions stockpiles.

Secondly, the Ukrainians are trying to get the Russians to commit their reserves, moving troops from the third defence line to bolster sectors under pressure. Once these troops are pulled forwards, it will become easier to identify the weak points in the Russian lines, where a breakthrough will not be met by a new screen of repositioned forces.

Thirdly, the Ukrainian military is trying to put pressure across the front to advance through the first line of defences in as much breadth as possible. The reason for this is to increase the options for attacking the main defence line and to keep Russian forces uncertain as to where the main effort will be launched. Furthermore, with such a long front, stretching out Russian troops limits their ability to stack units in depth, pulling more forward.

At some point, the Ukrainians will have to decide where to commit their main assault units, and the offensive will enter its decisive phase. This decision must be conditions-based. It isn't about adhering to some fixed timeline. When these units are committed, the offensive will either achieve a breakthrough or fail. Success is binary, not linear. The line is either broken or it is not, and Kyiv must shape the battlefield to maximise the probability of a breach.

The extent of a success will be determined by how much progress is made on the other side of the breach. If a breach can be achieved, then the critical question will be how many units Ukraine has in reserve to surge forward and exploit the success. If operations are currently methodical, once a breach in the line occurs, speed will be of the essence.

The uncertain variable in the current offensive is Russian morale. Russian units are currently fighting from prepared positions and their command-and-control infrastructure is mostly intact, though some key command posts have been struck. If Russian units can be forced to reposition, however, the poor training and discipline of Moscow's forces could see the defence become uncoordinated and susceptible to collapse. Bringing about such conditions would require some significant actions by the Ukrainians to get the Russians moving, but it is possible under such conditions for the strength of the defence to crumble rapidly. Ukraine can endeavour to bring such a situation about, but it cannot be counted on.

For Ukraine's international partners, the summer is likely to be deeply uncomfortable. Losses will mount and success will take time. It is vital, however, that there is no diminution in the strengthening of the training programmes allowing Ukraine to continue to generate combat units, or the mobilisation of defence industry to put supply to the Ukrainian military on a sustainable basis. However much territory is liberated in this offensive, the critical variable is convincing the Kremlin that even if its defeat comes in stages, it is coming.

The views expressed in this Commentary are the author's, and do not represent those of RUSI or any other institution.

[Legbiter]

For Ukraine's international partners, the summer is likely to be deeply uncomfortable. Losses will mount and success will take time.

Yeah. The Ukrainians could very well have their version of the battle of Kasserine Pass. We already got a foretaste with that immobilized column.

[DGuller]

I'm always suspicious of reports of 200 Russians being killed in bombings.  It seems like often "cargo 200", a Russian term for military dead, gets mangled in translation and becomes 200 dead.

Speaking of that, I just saw a story about a Russian general assembling a bunch of troops to deliver a motivational speech.  The speech was short and explosive, everyone had a blast.  At least 200 attendees reported being blown away in feedback survey afterwards.  I wish it were something like 250 for once, so that I could believe it more (and so that there would be 50 extra to add to the count).

[Josquius]

Weird video footage going about from the Russians of a ukrainian tank seemingly running over an Ukrainian transport vehicle sending it's passengers fleeing.

Then I've seen one of a ukrainian Bradley friendly firing....

Things do seem very confused and messed up at that western point of the front. Hopefully these are isolated incidents being blown up by Russia.

For Ukraine's international partners, the summer is likely to be deeply uncomfortable. Losses will mount and success will take time. It is vital, however, that there is no diminution in the strengthening of the training programmes allowing Ukraine to continue to generate combat units, 

This wording sits very uneasy.
These are people we are talking about. Not units to be generated.
Most of those who want to fight have already signed up.
I've read that Ukraine is in quite a manpower problem at the moment and getting to the stage of forcing people who really don't want to be on the front to be there - prompting protests from commanders being sent these troops and undermining their cause.

[Tamas]

Russian sources have been shown to use footage of Russian tanks and trying to sell it as Ukrainians messing up. They have shown a tractor being blown up as a Leopard 2 being destroyed etc.

I have no doubt that Ukrainians are suffering losses and making mistakes, why they would be different to any other human ever to fight in a battle? But do yourself a favour and ignore Russian sources.

[Sheilbh]

Incredibly grim story all round that about 100 Russia troops were killed basically on parade right by the front lines because they'd been ordered to go out for a motivational speech from their commander.

I saw it on social media last night but it's now been confirmed and is in the Guardian. It feels so resonant of the war and also somehow just incredibly Soviet in its disregard for life.

You're within missile and artillery range of the front-line and you make the men who you're supposed to be leading hang around outside (and visible) for you to give them a speech. It's grm.

[Valmy]

But do yourself a favour and ignore Russian sources.

Unfortunately there have only ever been brief periods in Russian history where this wasn't the right idea.

[Threviel]

Incredibly grim story all round that about 100 Russia troops were killed basically on parade right by the front lines because they'd been ordered to go out for a motivational speech from their commander.

I saw it on social media last night but it's now been confirmed and is in the Guardian. It feels so resonant of the war and also somehow just incredibly Soviet in its disregard for life.

You're within missile and artillery range of the front-line and you make the men who you're supposed to be leading hang around outside (and visible) for you to give them a speech. It's grm.

What's grim about it? To my mind it sounds like a feelgood story.

[Josquius]

Russian sources have been shown to use footage of Russian tanks and trying to sell it as Ukrainians messing up. They have shown a tractor being blown up as a Leopard 2 being destroyed etc.

I have no doubt that Ukrainians are suffering losses and making mistakes, why they would be different to any other human ever to fight in a battle? But do yourself a favour and ignore Russian sources.

No.
They're best taken with a pinch/gallon of salt. But they do often contain value hidden within them.
I don't look to them directly and instead to more pro Ukrainian/pro humanity sources parsing them and judging how likely to be accurate they are. But footage from the Russian side can be enlightening.
Even just on a level of what they're choosing to ignore and what they're lying about it's useful.

Also the Ukrainian friendly fire video was from a ukrainian source.

[DGuller]

I do wonder to what extent those of us following just the pro-Ukraine forces are Foxnewsing ourselves into an alternate reality.  We do it with the best of intentions, but cognitive biases don't care about intentions.  When you put highly filtered data into your brain, your brain eventually trains a model of reality that may be very divorced from objective reality.

[Josquius]

I do wonder to what extent those of us following just the pro-Ukraine forces are Foxnewsing ourselves into an alternate reality.  We do it with the best of intentions, but cognitive biases don't care about intentions.  When you put highly filtered data into your brain, your brain eventually trains a model of reality that may be very divorced from objective reality.

Yes. Definitely a problem.
Goes without saying that the non fox news/Russia today sources are worth a billion times more. But they do often still have a bit of an angle and especially in what they choose to report and not, no lying required, can shift perception.

Some overly pro Ukrainian sources do lean a bit towards the Russian style of doing things so it does seem a lot of people have built up an idea of Russians as nothing but incompetent vatniks handed a gun and waiting for a chance to flee vs professional efficient Ukrainians.
When we see, as on the west of the front, Ukrainian conscripts up against Russias best troops this contrast can be stark.

[grumbler]

It is easy to way over-generalize when one has limited data but wants to reach some conclusions.  I'd advise against concluding much from the fact that Ukrainian (or Russian) forces engaged in a blue-on-blue fire (Not a "friendly fire incident" because "friendly fire" isn't at all friendly).  Every military in the history of ever has done that.

All news sources are biased because all people are biased.  It takes a bit of care to recognize when the bias is systematic/organizational as to merely personal.

[Tamas]

I don't believe everything I read from the Ukrainian side. They are fighting for their very existence of course they are going to run propaganda.

But I'd rather do the filtering of their news than the Russian one, if for nothing else than because it doesn't make me want to throw up.

[Jacob]

I don't see any benefit in watching the Russian propaganda.

Yes, there's intelligence and perspectives that can be filtered out from the spin they put on it - but there are plenty of people who can do that filtering for me and who are much better versed in the necessary context.

Additionally - over the years I've become convinced that people are more susceptible to the effects of propaganda, proselyzitation, and spin than they think. I don't believe I'm that much different from people in general, so I think there's some risk to continually ingest evil-aligned agitprop.

[Barrister]

I don't see any benefit in watching the Russian propaganda.

There is value in following Russian propoganda.

BY knowing that it's all government controlled, it gives you insight on what the Russian government is telling its people, and by extension what the Russian state itself is thinking.

If you only follow one Twitter account make it Julia Davis, who regularly posts english-subtitled clips from Russian propaganda shows.

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews


But otherwise - no there's no value in following Russian propaganda in trying to determine the truth of what is happening on the ground.